Sheer entertainment. That’s what this short and wacky season has been to this point. If it were to start today, after another win yesterday, the Miami Marlins would be in the playoffs.
Who would’ve thought guys like Christian Yelich and Javier Baez would be battling the Mendoza line at this point in the season? And of course, the only player with a higher OPS than Mike Trout is none other than Ian Happ of the Chicago Cubs. Just as you would expect. Given the incredibly weird and unpredictable nature of this season, none of the picks I’m going to give you today are guaranteed to hit value. But that’s what makes this so fun, right? With that said, let’s have some fun and take a look at some Arms, Bats, and Stacks for today’s games.
Arms
Shane Bieber ($11,000 DK, $11,800 FD)
Bieber doesn’t need much hyping up. He’s been a stud since the word go this season, with a 6-0 record. 1.20 ERA, and 14.4 K/9. He’s in a decent spot facing the Milwaukee Brewers, who rank bottom three or worse in K% (27.2%), wOBA (.290), and wRC+ (77) versus right-handed pitchers this season. The only reason I’m highlighting Bieber is that I think it’ll be tempting to pitch one of the other cheaper aces like Jacob deGrom or Aaron Nola and I don’t think that’s the best play. They are both very talented and you should play them in some tournament lineups, but don’t fade Bieber in cash games.
Tyler Glasnow ($8,700 DK, $10,100 FD)
Glasnow looks like he’s finally turning the corner and back to full strength. That only spells doom and gloom for his opponents. The Miami Marlins might be in the thick of the playoff race, but they don’t match up well against the young righty. Despite their success this season, the fish rank second-worst in ISO (.124), third-worst in wOBA (.302), and K% (25.6%) in the National League versus right-handed pitchers. In 34 innings tossed this season, Glasnow has struck out 57 batters for a ridiculous 39.6% K rate. Not to mention, he’s fired at least 87 pitches with a max of 96 in his last three outings. Believe the trend, buy Glasnow at this price.
Other Options: Jacob deGrom, Aaron Nola, Masahiro Tanaka, Tejay Antone
Bats
1B Rowdy Tellez ($3,800 DK, $3,100 FD)
Tellez has been bringing the lumber lately. Apparently, ending August and moving into September was exactly what he needed. Since the beginning of the month, Tellez is 8-for-17 with one homer, two RBI, and five runs scored, raising his season average from .244 to .283 during that span. He’s reasonably priced and gets a solid matchup against Boston righty Andrew Triggs.
SS/OF Yairo Munoz ($2,700 DK, $2,200 FD)
Munoz spent most of the season at Boston’s alternate site in Pawtucket before getting called up last week. Since then, he has gone 9-for-20 with a five-game hitting streak, one homer, four RBI, and three doubles. Robbie Ray has had his fair share of struggles this season, with a preposterous 7.34 ERA between Arizona and Toronto. A lot of his expected stats and metrics rank in the bottom-tenth percentile, including Exit Velocity (2%), xERA (8%), Barrel% (3%), and Hard Hit% (3%).
OF Jesse Winker ($4,200 DK, $2,900 FD)
Winker has cooled off a bit lately, but for the season, he’s still slashing .298/.407/.614 (1.021 OPS). His Hard Hit%, xwOBA, Barrel%, xSLG, Exit Velocity, and xBA all remain in the 90th percentile. Over the course of his career, Chad Kuhl has struggled more with left-handed hitters, allowing a .366 wOBA and 5.03 xFIP against them. That’s proved to be true this season, as he has a 2.25 HR/9 rate against lefties, compared to a 1.38 HR/9 versus righties. I think Winker gets back to his hot hitting ways today.
OF Nomar Mazara $2,400 DK, $2,300 FD)
Mazara hasn’t been what GM Rick Hahn thought he was trading for, however, he still has some power and comes in at a nice discounted price. It’s a cheap way to get exposure to a good offense facing an over the hill pitcher, Matt Harvey. Mazara has hit at least 19 homers in each of the last four seasons. Maybe you can finally “Put it on the board” and he hits his first one in a White Sox uniform.
Other Options: Joey Votto, Luke Voit, Jonathan Villar, Yasmani Grandal, Clint Frazier, Adam Eaton, Kevin Plawecki
Stacks
Toronto Blue Jays vs Andrew Triggs
Triggs is a spot starter who shouldn’t last long and has a 16.20 ERA (small sample) and 94.9 average exit velocity against. The Jays have an implied run total close to six runs, which is one of the highest on the board. If you can afford their price tags, load up on Cavan Biggio, Jonathan Villar, Rowdy Tellez, and Travis Shaw.
Chicago White Sox vs Matt Harvey
The Sox have one of the most fun offenses in baseball to watch, taking on the Dark Knight in Kansas City. The only problem is, we are a long way removed from the Dark Knight who carved up hitters like tender pumpkins in 2013. The Sox have the highest implied run total (6.45 runs) and should be chalky. However, I’m not sure how high their ownership will be with all of the expensive pitching on this slate. Use any and all of the hitters.
Other Stacks: Boston Red Sox vs Robbie Ray, Cleveland Indians vs Brett Anderson
Good luck and let’s win some cash!
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