Joey Ricotta | June 25th, 2019
You need to set your lineups. So, let’s get right into some picks for this huge Tuesday night slate of games.
The Arms
Max Scherzer ($12,400 on DK and $12,200 on FD)
Broken-nosed Mad Max doesn’t care who he’s facing. He doesn’t care if he has a broken nose. He’s still going to go out there, get on the mound, throw smoke for about seven or eight innings, and punch everyone out. With a broken nose and an awesome looking black eye, Scherzer had a line of 7 IP 4 H 0 ER 2 BB 10 K. According to Fangraphs, Scherzer is almost a full point above second place with a 4.2 WAR. Compared to 3.3 WAR by Lance Lynn and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Scherzer also ranks third in baseball with a ridiculous 33.8% K rate. I’m getting sick of having to repeat how bad the Miami Marlins offense is this season, but I will. The Marlins strikeout 24.8% of the time and have the second-worst wOBA (.284) and wRC+ (77) vs right-handed pitchers. He’s expensive and that will scare some people off of using him, but I think that is a mistake.
Adbert Alzolay ($6,800 on DK and $7,000 on FD)
Alzolay made an impressive Major League debut, in relief against the Mets last week. His heater, power breaking ball, and changeup were all working and allowed him to go four-plus innings, giving up only one run and one hit while striking out five. Alzolay had been dominating Triple-A with a terrific 36.5% strikeout rate. The Atlanta Braves are certainly not an easy offense to face and the wind is expected to be howling out to dead center field again at Wrigley Field. But the wind won’t matter much if the Braves don’t make much contact. I like Alzolay at least for tournaments as a contrarian, low-owned pick.
Nestor Cortes Jr. ($4,000 on DK and $5,500 on FD)
This definitely more about price than anything else. $4,000 on Draftkings is almost like a free square. You’re getting a long reliever that will most likely be in line for the win after the Yankees crush Clayton Richard tonight. Cortes should go about four or five innings and the Blue Jays are projected to have six right-handed bats in the lineup. Cortes Jr., although a left-handed pitcher, has been better against righties with a .296 wOBA and tremendous 26.5% K rate. The Blue Jays strikeout 24.2% of the time vs lefties and oddly enough have the exact same wOBA as Cortes Jr. allows at .296 vs southpaws. That number ranks them fifth worst in the Majors.
Other Targets: Madison Bumgarner, Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber, and Gerrit Cole.
The Bats
3B/SS Manny Machado ($5,500 on DK $3,900 on FD)
Something I’ve been looking forward to watching, Machado will be making his return to Baltimore. Manny might be the hottest hitter in baseball right now. He’s riding an 11-game hitting streak during which he has scolded the ball, mashing six homers, six doubles, and 12 RBI. Machado is 23-49 (.469) during this stretch with eight multi-hit contests. The Orioles opener, Jimmy Yacabonis has a 4.70 ERA and shouldn’t pitch more than an inning or two. Their expected long reliever, Josh Rogers is a left with an 8.25 ERA and career 8.9% strikeout rate. That is terrible. He is missing zero bats. Out of hitters with at least 40 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, Machado ranks number one in wRC+ (238) and wOBA (.534).
OF Albert Almora ($3,300 on DK and $2,200 on FD)
We need to save a substantial amount of money to be able to get Scherzer in our lineups tonight. Almora generally hits lefties well, with a career .330 wOBA against them. He’s slotted to hit in the nine hole behind the pitcher which I actually like. He’ll basically be a leadoff hitter for the top of the lineup the next time through, setting up Schwarber, Bryant, and the gang. And you never know, with the wind blowing out, maybe Almora can get a hold of one.
OF Giancarlo Stanton ($4,600 on DK and $4,200 on FD)
Stanton hit his first bomb of the season last night. Out of hitters with at least 100 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers dating back to the beginning of last season, Stanton ranks fourth in hard contact percentage with 55.6%. And he ranks seventh against lefties in wRC+ with 174. Do you know who is a left-handed pitcher? Clayton Richard.
Other Targets: Hanser Alberto, Edwin Encarnacion, Pedro Severino, and Javier Baez.
Stacks
Baltimore Orioles vs Logan Allen
New York Yankees vs Clayton Richard
Chicago Cubs vs Max Fried
San Diego Padres vs Jimmy Yacabonis and Josh Rogers
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