Happy Mother’s Day to all of you great moms out there! To all of you spoiled kids, call your mom! Over the years, we’ve seen some wild Mother’s Day moments, including Javier Baez’s walk-off homer five years ago. What will today bring? Hopefully, some cash, especially if you’re a mom, that plays DFS. Let’s get right into it.
On The Bump
Jacob deGrom ($11,700 DK, $12,500 FD)
Pure domination. How else can you describe deGrom? He’s the best pitcher in baseball, and it’s not all that close right now. The righty missed his last start due to right lat inflammation. But he’s ready to go and to look to build upon his 0.51 ERA and 0.57 WHIP. Is that possible? deGrom will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks, who rank second-to-last in runners left in scoring position per game (4.12) and batting average with RISP (.205). de(GOAT)rom should have no problems racking up strikeouts and putting up fantasy points.
Kenta Maeda ($8,300 DK, $7,400 FD)
The 33-year-old hasn’t started with the same pace he pitched last season when he finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting. Maeda owns a 5.02 ERA in six games started. However, he might be starting to turn it around after pitching 5.1 innings and allowing only two hits and zero runs against the Texas Rangers his last time out. He also struck out a season-high eight batters. If there’s a team a pitcher wants to face right now, it’s the Detroit Tigers. Maeda could make it two straight strong outings against a team that’s last in xwOBA (.303) and strikeout rate (29.6 percent). WATCH THE WEATHER! I love Maeda’s matchup, but this game has serious rainout potential.
Kyle Hendricks ($6,900 DK, $7,100 FD)
Another pitcher who’s gotten off to a shaky start but turned it around recently. Hendricks remains tied for the most home runs allowed (11), but he was much more like the Hendricks we have come to know over the years. He worked seven strong innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers and allowed only one run while striking out six batters. Do you know what helps suppress home runs? Facing a team that’s last in the majors in homers (22), hard-hit percent (34.1 percent), and barrel percent (5.8 percent). That team would be the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cubs are going for their second consecutive series sweep. Hendricks is the best bang for your buck on the slate. He’ll get great pitching weather as well, cold and cool with the wind blowing in from left-center.
Also in the mix: Lucas Giolito, Sandy Alcantara, Adam Wainwright, Dane Dunning
At The Dish
1B – Josh Bell ($3,800 DK, $3,100 FD)
Would the real Josh Bell please stand up? After a quiet start to the year, Bell hit his third homer of the campaign on Friday night. He followed that up by going 0-5 yesterday. Joining a new team is never easy. He’s one of my favorite sleepers hitters this preseason because many of his underlying metrics jumped off the page even in a porous 2020 season where he hit only .226 with eight homers.
This year that remains the case, as he sits in the 90th percentile with a 52.9 percent hard-hit rate. Bell is second on his team to only Juan Soto in xwOBA against four-seam fastballs from right-handed pitchers since 2016. Going up against Domingo German, who throws that pitch more than any other offering against left-handed batters. I’m looking for Bell to blast one in the Bronx at low ownership, in a favorable park for homers.
SS – Miguel Rojas ($4,400 DK, $3,100 FD)
Rojas is arguably the hottest hitter in the league. Over his last five games, he’s gone 10-19 (.526 BA) with two bombs, three doubles, and one triple. Milwaukee’s starting pitcher Brett Anderson pitches to contact and likes to throw his changeup to righties, a pitch that Rojas hits well. Last year, Rojas had a .433 xBA against changeups. He’s hitting the ball in the air more with a 26.4 percent FB rate (career-high) compared to a 37.4 percent GB rate (career-low). I like Rojas’ chances of hitting at least one extra-base hit versus Anderson.
OF – Michael Conforto ($4,000 DK, $3,200 FD)
Riley Smith will be toeing the rubber for the Dbacks. He’s predominantly a sinker-baller, mixing in a slider and changeup. Conforto handles all three of those pitches well and has a .478 wOBA and .490 wOBA against the sinker and slider, respectively. Smith also holds a .342 xBA against the sinker this season. Now that Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil are getting it going ahead of him expect Conforto to be in a good position to get some decent pitches and drive in some runs. I could see Smith throwing that sinker in hopes of inducing a double-play ball, only to have it backfire and watch Conforto launch one into the bleachers.
OF – Alex Verdugo ($3,900 DK, $3,200 FD)
Verdugo is off to a hot start, batting .311 with four home runs, 16 runs batted in, and three steals. He’s hitting .345 (10-29) already in May. He gets a solid matchup, going against Baltimore’s right-hander Dean Kremer who is bottom one percent of the league in max exit velocity (119.4 mph) and bottom five percent in hard-hit percentage (51.6 percent). Boston has the third-highest implied team total on the slate. I like Verdugo’s odds of contributing from the two-hole today.
Also in the mix: Christian Vazquez, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Adolis Garcia, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor
Stacks
Miami Marlins vs. Brett Anderson
Anderson makes his return from the injured list after exiting his last start on April 23 in the first inning against the Cubs due to a hamstring strain. The lefty has a decent 4.15 ERA, but his 6.81 xERA is the largest difference for probable starters on the entire slate. I’m looking at the top four projected hitters in the Marlins’ lineup. Rojas, Jesus Aguilar, Garrett Cooper, and Adam Duvall. Rojas and Duvall alone are a combined 17-38 with a .447 average and four homers in their last seven games.
Boston Red Sox vs. Dean Kremer
Kremer could be in deep trouble today. His 6.43 ERA doesn’t bode well for this matchup. The Bo-Sox have the third-highest implied team total on the board, and they have some reasonably priced hitters. Verdugo, J.D. Martinez, Vazquez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and Christian Arroyo (if hitting lead-off) are my favorite targets.
New York Mets vs. Riley Smith
After a weird clubhouse tunnel argument about a rat or a raccoon(?), Lindor and McNeil have gone 5-11 with a walk, two homers, four runs, two steals, and five RBIs. The Mets always struggle to get deGrom run support, but I’ll bank on them doing so here. They’d love nothing more than to do so against Smith, who has a ridiculously low 11.5 percent strikeout rate and high .305 xBA. Lindor, McNeil, Conforto, and Alonso are my main targets.
Other Stacks: NYY, HOU, WAS
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