It’s time to get back into the MLB DFS swing after a few days off. Numerous teams are getting a break on Monday (only eight games in total), and rain is in the forecast for several games on the main slate. However, it looks like clear skies for the 8:05 p.m. EDT trio of games that make up Monday Night Turbo. Let’s see what kind of lineup we can assemble with these six teams doing battle.
***All prices listed are DraftKings***
The Arms
There is not a lot of value in pitching on the list tonight that does not make one grit their teeth. J.A. Happ has been shelled often after a decent start to the season in Minnesota. The Texas Rangers’ Kyle Gibson has been masterful, carrying a 2.09 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. However, the lack of swings-and-misses combined with a desperate scarcity of run support makes him a less than appealing DFS contributor against Oakland.
Frankie Montas is too rich ($9,400) for his qualifications (7-6, 4.21 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) even against the Rangers, and Adbert Alzolay is fresh off the injured list. Who does that leave us with? The only two that make sense.
Tyler Mahle – at Minnesota ($9,800)
The 26-year-old for Cincinnati has nearly gone from starter to stopper this season, stepping up in a big way when needed, and the Reds need him. They drag into Minnesota coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of the previously scuffling San Diego Padres, and need to bounce back. Enter Mahle, who has been a DFS darling this season at 7-2 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Most importantly, 90 strikeouts in 74.1 innings is the kind of production you’re looking for at the top of your lineup.
Mahle will be heavily owned tonight against the banged-up Twins and while he is not a value pick, his price point is right on the money. Once he gets through the first two innings, look for him to go on cruise control, pick up a W, and hit 11 strikeouts.
Aaron Civale – at Chicago Cubs ($8,500)
Once again, this is nearly addition by default. Before settling on Mahle, there was strong consideration given to taking Civale and his opponent, Alzolay in what could very well be a pitcher’s duel. Like Texas’ Gibson, his strikeout numbers are leaving a lot to be desired. Unlike Gibson, Civale has gotten reasonable run support and has demonstrated the ability to escape jams.
If Alzolay falters, look for the Cleveland righty to take the bull by the horns against a Cubbies lineup whose bats have cooled off to the tune of 16 total runs over their last eight games. Civale comes into this one sporting a 10-2 record with a 3.48 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
The Bats
Luis Arraez, 2B – vs. Cincinnati ($2,900)
As good as we can expect Mahle to be on the bump for the Reds, historically he has a tough go in the first two innings of his starts. On a three-game slate, we’re still going to trot some value plays out there against him and hope to strike gold. Never mind that, the bullpen is awful, so Minny will have their opportunities.
Arraez is swinging a hot stick since returning from the IL, batting .350. The infielder is particularly adept at just getting the bat on the ball and against Mahle, that’s key. Look for the hot streak to continue and count on Arraez for a couple hits in this tilt.
Amed Rosario, SS ($4,000) and Jose Ramirez, 3B ($5,800) – at Chicago Cubs
As stated earlier, Alzolay is coming off the IL to pitch this game. Prior to a blister on his middle finger forcing him to miss time, he was solid, if unspectacular. We’re gonna ride the two studs near the top of the Cleveland lineup while they swing away on the 26-year-old who is still shaking off some rust.
This pair has combined to hit .272 with 20 homers, 67 runs batted in, and 13 stolen bases on the season. This is the meat in your DFS sandwich.
Trevor Larnach, OF ($2,900) and Scott Heineman, OF ($2,400) – MIN vs. CIN
Obviously, I am really liking this game for the bats. Cincinnati is always dangerous with the lumber and gets to add a DH when they face off with the Twins’ Happ (3-3, 6.12 ERA, 1.44 WHIP… woof). On the flip side, Minnesota may be confounded for six innings by Mahle but is likely to put runs on the board in a hurry against the worst bullpen in the majors.
Each of these outfielders are lacking any kind of consistency. Each, however, can also hit the ball a country mile. Let’s not pretend what we are hoping for here, and in an unprecedented move I’ll make them my dual home run calls of the night.
Rounding Out the Lineup
Sean Murphy, C – at Texas ($3,900)
Joey Votto, 1B – at Minnesota ($4,500)
Kris Bryant, OF – vs. Cleveland ($5,300)
With the overall combination of names here, there are enough value plays and steady bets to use any variants you like in order to play Cash games or GPP tourneys.
Best of luck to everyone tonight. Let’s make some money. We’ll be back at the same time tomorrow with the Daily Wager for your straight gambling recommendations in all three sports. Until then, enjoy tonight’s DFS slates.
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