Joey Ricotta | July 15th, 2019
Welcome back. It’s been a little over a week since I’ve last written a DFS article but hopefully, the winning hasn’t stopped for you. The All-Star break was much-needed for me personally, but I’m very excited to be back full force, ready to drop some knowledge that may help drop some dollars into our accounts. With that said, let’s get right into the Monday Money Plays and Stacks for tonight’s games.
Pitching
Lucas Giolito ($11,200 on DK and $9,100 on FD)
Giolito has had two bad starts against the Chicago Cubs, otherwise, he’s been terrific. He was named to his first-ever All-Star game and looked pretty good in his one inning of work in the game. Giolito’s first time facing the Kansas City Royals this season, he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. The last time he faced them, he went 7.2 shutout innings allowing only three hits and striking out 11. Altogether, the Royals are hitting only .138 lifetime against Giolito.
James Paxton ($9,300 on DK and $9,000 on FD)
Paxton matches up well against the Tampa Bay Rays. His last start before the All-Star break came against the Rays on July 7th, where he had a final line of 6 IP 7 H 2 ER and 11 Ks. Good enough for 27.3 DK points. The Rays have a less than average .310 wOBA and 95 wRC+ vs southpaws this season. They are also tied for the second-highest strikeout rate in all of baseball vs lefties at 26%. Paxton’s 28.9% K rate gives him a solid floor for fantasy points, even if he gives up a couple of runs.
Daniel Norris ($4,200 on DK and $6,000 on FD)
Way too cheap for Norris. I really don’t love the match-up, as I’ll explain in further detail later on in the article, but at this price, you can take a stab at using him to fill out the rest of your lineup with expensive hitters. The last time he faced Cleveland, he went seven innings, gave up six runs, and struck out eight batters. Not a terrific outing, but good enough to put up 15 Draftkings points. If he can put up a similar stat line tonight, you’ll definitely take 15 points and run with them at this salary.
Other Targets: Joe Musgrove and Adam Plutko.
Hitting
1B Brandon Belt ($4,400 on DK and $3,700 on FD)
Belt is 2-4 during the first game of the doubleheader and has been swinging it better lately. Belt has a 48% hard contact rate with runners in scoring position. The way the Giants have been swinging it lately, I think it’s safe to assume they will have some runners in scoring position for tonight’s game against the Colorado Rockies and Chi Chi Gonzalez. Out of Belt’s 11 HRs, eight of them have come against right-handed pitchers. He also has a .351 wOBA against and 119 wRC+ against them, both are above league average.
SS Brandon Crawford ($3,700 on DK and $3,000 on FD)
As of writing this, Crawford has already hit two homers during the first game of the doubleheader between the Giants and Rockies today. Going into today, he had hits in five consecutive games. The pitcher he will be facing, Chi Chi Gonzalez has only appeared in two games this season, but has an ERA of 6.00. Lefties are also hitting .293 with a .331 wOBA lifetime vs him.
OF A.J. Pollock ($3,400 on DK and $3,300 on FD)
Since returning from an elbow injury on Friday, Pollock has hits in each of his first three games back, including two homers. Zach Eflin struggles more against lefties, so Pollock may go overlooked. For Pollock’s entire career, he has been equally as good vs righties and lefties. He has a career .280 average against lefties and .279 average vs righties. And last season, Pollock was actually better vs right-handers, .275 compared to .221. If he goes overlooked at this cheap price, he could win you a lot of money tonight.
Other Targets: David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon, Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy,
Stacks
SF @ COL
It’s Coors Field, but more importantly, two not so great pitchers. The San Francisco Giants are tearing the cover off the ball lately, which looking back even a few weeks ago would’ve sounded ridiculous. They’ve put up 16 runs so far, in the first game of the double-header, and 22 in three games over the weekend. For Colorado, they get a match-up with Dereck Rodriguez who has a 5.27 ERA and 5.57 FIP this season.
Chicago Cubs vs Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo has proven this season to be one of the league’s true stud pitchers. But that only means if he has a bad game, the batters he is facing will be low owned in tournaments. The wind is expected to be blowing out at Wrigley Field in Chicago, and the Cubs seem to be refreshed after some much-needed rest during the All-Star break. They just completed a series sweep of the Pirates where they put up 22 runs in three games.
Cleveland Indians vs Daniel Norris
Norris will garner ownership mainly because of his price, but the Indians are still in a reasonably good spot against Norris. Vegas is projecting them to score over six runs (like they did the last time they faced Norris) and the Indians should be semi low-owned with a game at Coors Field on the slate.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Zach Eflin
Eflin has been giving up a ton of bombs lately, six homers allowed in his last three games. Eflin also really struggles vs left-handed hitters and the Dodgers have a ton of damaging lefties in their lineup. In fewer innings pitched, Eflin has given up five more homers to left-handed hitters than to righties. Also a .357 wOBA and .544 slugging percentage. Compared to a .290 wOBA and .385 slugging to righties. The Dodgers are also tied for the second-most home runs hit by left-handed hitters against right-handed pitchers this year with 73 total.
Boston Red Sox vs Trent Thornton
Thornton has faced this Red Sox team twice already and had mixed results. The first time, 6.1 IP 2 ER. The last time, the Red Sox tagged him for 11 hits and 7 ER in only 2.2 innings of work. I’m thinking they saw something from the first time they faced him, made adjustments, and will be ready to scold him once again tonight.
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