Joey Ricotta | June 12th, 2019
Normally, any slate that features Justin Verlander, it’s almost a certainty you are playing him at one of your starting pitcher spots and moving on from there. Tonight, however, is a little bit trickier than that. Verlander draws a tough matchup at home against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers hit for power and Verlander can give some up. You will definitely want some exposure to Verlander to some capacity in tournaments, but maybe it’s best we look elsewhere in cash games. With that said, let’s dive in and take a look at today’s Locks, Stacks, and Barrels.
Locks
Mike Soroka ($10,900)
Soroka has been excellent this season and is making a serious push for Rookie of the Year considerations. So far, he’s 7-1 with a 1.38 ERA in 10 games started. His last time out, he went eight strong innings allowing only three hits and one run, while striking out six batters. Soroka has yet to give up more than three runs in any game this season and has given up two or more runs only once all year. The Pirates don’t strike out much, which could limit Soroka’s upside, but they have a weak 34.4% HC rate and .159 ISO, creating a high floor type of situation for Soroka tonight.
Jose Berrios ($10,300)
Jose Berrios is more of a tournament option to me. He’s been pitching like a true ace this season, but he struggled the last time he faced the Seattle Mariners. He only went 4.2 IP allowing eight hits, four runs, while striking out six. The six strikeouts are where to find optimism. The Mariners strikeout 25% of the time vs right-handed pitchers and it’s not like they can’t have bad overall games against them. Their 36.1% hard contact rate vs righties, ranks near the bottom of MLB.
Miles Mikolas ($7,200)
Safety and upside are huge factors when looking at which starting pitchers to use on a daily basis. With Mikolas, he has a solid floor today facing a weak Miami Marlins offense in a good pitcher’s park. The Marlins rank towards the bottom in nearly every offensive category, especially against right-handed pitchers. Mikolas also has upside today, the Marlins strikeout at a 25% clip against righties. He’s coming off of some poor starts recently, but I think this is a get right spot for Mikolas.
Stacks
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Both sides of this game are stack-able and attack-able tonight. Edwin Jackson has been pulled as the Blue Jays starter, but could still be the long reliever. He is old as dirt and used. His 11.90 ERA in five starts speaks to that. David Hess can get annihilated from time to time also. Especially, against right-handed hitters, 17 of his 20 home runs given up have been to right-handed hitters. Hess has a 7.08 ERA and has given up at least one homer in each of his last six outings.
Minnesota Twins
Cory Gearrin will be the Seattle Mariners opener against the Twins. The last time Gearrin opened a game was June 3rd against the Houston Astros. In one inning pitched, he allowed two hits, three earned runs, and one HR before exiting the game. Tommy Milone is the expected long reliever, and he hasn’t been terrible since being called up from Triple-A. But he’s shown signs of being blown up and has given up a homer in each of his last three starts. The Twins offense is too good, especially against left-handed pitchers.
Philadelphia Phillies
I’ve talked myself into loving this stack tonight. I think the pitcher they will be facing, Merrill Kelly is somewhat of a fraud. He’s not a terrible pitcher and does have a decent ground ball rate, but his 4.71 xFIP says he will regress. It might be more of a gut feeling than anything, but I think Merrill Kelly gets lit up tonight and the right-handed bats will probably do most of the Phillies heavy lifting.
Barrels
SS Jean Segura ($4,200)
Segura’s price is a lot nicer than the other options at shortstop tonight. When Merrill Kelly struggles, it’s usually against righties. They have a .343 wOBA and have hit eight bombs off Kelly. Segura is riding a four-game hit streak and has always hit righties well, career .290 hitter vs right-handers.
OF Nelson Cruz ($4,800)
Nelson Cruz absolutely obliterates left-handed pitching. Over the course of his career, Cruz has a .263 ISO, .392 wOBA, and 147 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. Those stats are only for his career. So far this season, Cruz is hitting .303 with four homers against them and an 81.8% hard contact rate. He also recently had a four-game homer streak. Wait. Wait. Wait. Cruz isn’t facing a lefty. Yes, he is, Tommy Milone is the Mariners expected long reliever.
OF Randal Grichuk ($4,200)
Say what you will about Batter vs Pitcher stats (otherwise known as BvP). The fact of the matter is, while BvP cannot always be looked at as the best way to predict a future outcome, it is the most realistic stat because it tells you what has actually happened in the past. Realistically, Randal Grichuk has hit David Hess well in the past. He’s 3-10 with all three of his hits being doubles. Hess allows an alarming 45.8% hard contact rate to righties.
Joe Ricotta has been playing fantasy sports for a little over 10 years. Ricotta began playing daily fantasy shortly after its inception. He has taken down a few large field tournaments and regularly cashes in his head to head matchups. This is not to say that he always will, but he always has a reason behind his lineup constructions. Fanduel pricing has been included but for all intents and purposes, the article was based on DraftKings research. The main slate of games beginning at 7:05 EST were the ones addressed. Recheck starting lineups and weather concerns before the games start and make changes accordingly.
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