Joey Ricotta | June 11th, 2019
Weather should be much less of a concern tonight. That makes me feel a whole lot better about which direction to go for tonight’s monster slate of games. Let’s take a look at some locks, BvP, Core Plays, and Stacks.
Locks
Patrick Corbin ($10,300)
Corbin strikes out batters at a 26.7% clip and the Chicago White Sox are very prone to the strikeout. They strikeout 25.7% as a whole and 24.9% vs southpaws. The Sox also have the lowest hard contact rate against them at 25.6%. Corbin has struggled his last two starts, posting an 11.25 ERA in 7.2 IP while giving up 16 hits. If there’s one thing we know about Corbin, he usually doesn’t have more than two bad starts in a row. Expect him to get back to business tonight against the White Sox.
Martin Perez ($6,700)
The Seattle Mariners punch out 26.4% of the time vs left-handed pitching. That ties them for the fourth worst rate in MLB. They have some high advanced numbers vs lefties (.207 ISO, .330 wOBA, 112 wRC+) but they have the second lowest hard contact rate against them (29.8%). This is a different Martin Perez than years past. Although he has struggled to make it past the fifth inning of his last three starts, I think this is where he gets back on track. On May 17th against the Mariners, Perez went 6.2 innings allowing only one earned while striking out seven.
Other Targets: Jakob Junis, James Paxton, and Trevor Bauer.
BvP
3B Kyle Seager vs Martin Perez (GPP)
17-52 (.327) 4 HR 7 RBI
3B/OF Marwin Gonzalez vs Mike Leake (GPP)
8-14 (.571) 1 HR 4 RBI
Core Plays
1B Ji-Man Choi ($4,000)
Choi has been a model of consistency. He’s riding a seven-game hitting streak during which he has gone 12-22, hitting .545 with two home runs.
2B/OF Brock Holt ($3,700)
In ten games played since returning from the IL on May 28th, Holt has only gone hit-less once. In his limited action, he is getting the job done. He may not have the power upside you want. If you need the salary relief, you could do worse than Holt, especially in cash games.
3B Anthony Rendon ($5,500)
We should be well aware at this point, Anthony Rendon kills any and all pitchers. He’s hitting .316 with 12 HR and 43 RBI. Rendon especially kills left-handed pitchers. In his career, Rendon has a .303 avg, .381 wOBA, .139 wRC+ vs lefties. Don’t overthink it, put Rendon in. If it’s not Rendon, it better be Arenado, at least for cash games.
SS Gleyber Torres ($4,100)
With Gleyber Torres facing the left-hander Jason Vargas at home, I really like Torres’ chances to produce. Vargas has been pitching much better as of late, but I think it’s only a matter of time before he gets lit up again. The weird thing with Torres, he has actually hit right-handed pitching much better than lefties this season. But his career .350 wOBA and 120 wRC+ suggests he should improve on his .250 average vs lefties this year.
Other Targets: Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, Brian Dozier, and Eddie Rosario.
Stacks
Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs
This is not a knock on Peter Lambert. He pitched extremely well in his debut against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. But any time you face the same team again so quickly, the matchup becomes that much more difficult. Especially in this case, because Lambert is still a rookie and he will have to deal with the thin air in Denver. Kyle Schwarber and Carlos Gonzalez will be my favorite one-off plays from this game, but anyone is in play. The Rockies bats vs Jose Quintana are also great options. Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story always kill lefties.
Washington Nationals vs Manny Banuelos
Manny Banuelos has been dreadful this season, sporting a 7.36 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. We don’t really need to look much further. The right-handed bats in the Nats lineup are all in play as well as guys like Juan Soto and Adam Eaton.
Boston Red Sox vs Ariel Jurado
Jurado looks like a decent pitcher on the surface, but he isn’t Adrian Sampson. While he has a 2.78 ERA, he has a 4.09 xFIP and has given up a homer in each of his last three outings. A great offense like Boston should be able to exploit his 2019 fraud like behavior.
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