Run it back, MLB DFS degenerates, because we are hoping to kick off July with a bang. Let’s try to replicate some of the lumber our value picks brought to the yard yesterday, and improve on our pitching. Last night, the outfield stole the show. Christopher Morel (34pts, $3,400), Kyle Schwarber (18pts, $5,100), and Michael Harris II (16pts, $2,900) did us a solid. Rookie Oneil Cruz chipped in 16 points as well, making good on his $3,900 investment. Sadly, the pitchers let us down as Logan Gilbert and Graham Ashcraft both got lit up. Nevertheless, if you utilized any combination of those hitters, you were likely pleased with your entries.
Tonight, we have a whopper of a 10-game slate lighting its fuse at 7:05pm EDT. There are some tough matchups to navigate, but with this many games, there is certainly value to be found. In deference to last night’s pitching debacle (and based on matchups), we are going to get a little “chalk-y” with our hurlers. It’s going to handcuff what can be spent at the plate, but I am confident in finding the value that is there. As always, I’ll list the featured values first, and then give a pick at each remaining position afterwards.
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***All prices listed are from DraftKings***
Chalk on the Hill
Corbin Burnes – at Pittsburgh ($10,600)
This was basically a toss-up between the Milwaukee Brewers’ ace and the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole. However, aside from the two extra losses, Burnes has been a better pitcher this season. Not only that, but I’ll take him against the Pirates over Cole’s matchup with the Guardians seven ways from Sunday. Cleveland has crept their way up the rankings in team runs scored per game, while Pittsburgh (though improving) is still sitting third-to last in the league. They have great young hitters (two of which I’m playing tonight), but the thing about young hitters is they like to strike out a lot. Burnes is third in the league with 119 strikeouts and will launch well into first place by game’s end. He’s 6-4 on the season with a 2.41 ERA and a miniscule 0.92 WHIP. This will be an easy seven-inning, 10-plus punchout game where he barely breaks a sweat.
Best Pairing: Cristian Javier – vs Los Angeles Angels ($9,200)
Javier doesn’t get a whole lot of credit, but the stats are there. He is 5-3 (10 starts) while backpacking a 2.73/1.05 line and striking out a titillating 11.6 batters per nine innings. He gets the Disneyland-adjacent Angels of Anaheim, who score an average of less than four runs/game on the road. Welcome to Houston, where the Astros are on a three-game win streak and are victorious in eight of their last 10.
Value in the Field
José Abreu, 1B – at San Francisco ($3,900)
We need value after spending heavy on the bump, and what a nice way to start. Abreu has been consistent lately and is showing signs of a seriously hot streak coming. To get him for $3.9K is quite the bargain. The White Sox slugger is slashing .346/.431/.533 (a .964 OPS for you students that forgot your calculators) during the month of June. Not only that, Abreu has five multi-hit games in his last nine contests, including a 4-for-4 effort on Wednesday. His on-base percentage in those nine games is .487. He’ll tap the plate against the Giants’ Alex Cobb, who is shouldering an ugly 5.48 ERA and 1.46 WHIP and hasn’t made it through the fifth inning in his last two starts… against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.
Andrew Benintendi, OF – at Detroit ($3,800)
For season-long players in fantasy leagues, Benintendi has largely been a disappointment. The homers, RBIs, stolen bases… you name it, are all down. However, the Royals’ outfielder is still pulling a 1.8 WAR strictly on the strength of his ability to get on base. He is just 52 hits and 7 walks shy of eclipsing his total in those categories from a year ago in roughly half the games played. While the (likely) soon-to-be traded Benintendi is not flashy, he provides the ability to get on base and score runs. Maybe he’ll even steal a base? For the pricepoint, that’s enough for me against a returning but rusty Michael Pineda who will likely be on a pitch count before Detroit goes to the bullpen. The Cincinnati, OH native has two hits in each of his last three games and five multi-hit affairs in his last nine, during which he’s batting a cool .382.
Evan Longoria, 3B – vs Chicago White Sox ($4,000)
Here are some words that I didn’t expect to say in 2022: Start Longoria in DFS. Sure, it’s not like he’s taken a time machine back to being utterly dominant/feared at the dish, but he’s seeing the ball extremely well right now. His OPS of .848 is the highest it’s been since the Flintstones were still on TV (well, 2012 anyway). Longoria has just eight ding-dongs on the season, but three have come in his last five outings. He’s hit safely in eight of his last nine and had two hits a piece in four of them. Over the same period, he’s crossed the plate eight times, driven in six, and drawn five walks. The 36-year-old will step into the box against 35-year-old Lance Lynn, who has been less than stellar (6.19 ERA/1.44 WHIP) in his first three starts of 2022.
We are spending cash where we need it most – on the arms. With little capital left, look for the hot hands to ride to victory. Below are my preferred picks to spread out cash for tonight at the remaining positions.
Other favorite plays: Adley Rutschman (C – BAL), Jeff McNeil (2B – NYM), Oneil Cruz (SS – PIT), Steven Kwan (OF – CLE), Jack Suwinski (OF – PIT)
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