Happy Saturday and Easter Eve! As the kids in your family get ready to hunt for real eggs tomorrow, let’s dive into the adult version of an Easter egg hunt. That would be finding the best gems for MLB DFS on the second Saturday of the young season. For these picks, we will be looking at the small two-game late slate of 9:10 p.m. EST. The two games are the Cincinnati Reds at the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Houston Astros at the Seattle Mariners. Let’s get into it!
The Arm
Hunter Greene ($7,500 DK, $6,500 FD)
The rookie right-hander had a solid debut last week, as he struck out seven while allowing three runs on four hits and two walks over five innings. Two of the runs came off of homers, and the other hits were a single and a double. Over 20 of the flamethrower’s pitches hit triple digits and he was still reaching 101 mph in the fifth inning. Greene maintained composure despite the homers and left his team in his position to win, which they did. It will be tough for him to face the Dodgers lineup, but he has the stuff to keep the offense in check. Heck, he kept a tough Braves lineup in check while missing bats. In three seasons in the minors, his strikeout per nine rate never fell below 10.88. Greene is also from Los Angeles, so there will be some extra motivation playing in Dodger Stadium.
The Sluggers
Gavin Lux ($3,000 DK, $3,100 FD)
Lux is off to a very hot start this season and posted better numbers against right-handers last season. He posted a .260/.343/.404 triple slash and a 104 wRC+ against righties in 2021. This season he has a .494 xwOBA, .327 xBA, and .597 xSLG overall. He should be able to barrel up the fastball of Greene, as his hard-hit rate of 64.7 percent is in the 95th percentile. Lux has just one homer so far this season, but he is my home run call on this DFS slate.
Michael Brantley ($4,200 DK, $2,900 FD)
This is a game that could really get Brantley going, as he faces a pitcher in Chris Flexen who struggles with command and had three walks in 4 1/3 innings last time out. Brantley doesn’t whiff on many pitches, as he is in the 90th percentile of whiff percentage. Flexen gets chases but only has a 17 percent whiff percentage this season and 19.2 percent over his career. Brantley, on the other hand, doesn’t chase much and will make contact when he does. While he doesn’t hit the ball all too hard, look for him to wait for his pitch and get on base a couple of times tonight. Perhaps he breaks through for his first homer this season. Although, that’s not my official home run call for today’s MLB DFS.
The Fade
Trea Turner ($5,900 DK, $3,900 FD)
Turner is the most expensive position player on DraftKings and the second most expensive on FanDuel. While he has gotten off to a solid start from an average standpoint (9-for-30 or .300), the peripherals show it is not sustainable. The shortstop has just one extra-base hit and hasn’t hit the ball very hard (44 percent hard-hit rate). Turner also has just a 3.1 percent walk rate so far and faces a rookie pitcher in Greene that struck out seven batters in his debut. Turner’s xwOBA is just .274 and this is a game that could put an end to his seven-game hitting streak to start the season. With an average fastball velocity of 99.7 mph, Greene has some of the most electric stuff in the league. A guy who puts the bat on the ball but doesn’t make consistently hard contact will have a tough time getting on a pitcher who slings triple digits. On this Easter Eve, Turner is the rotten egg to avoid in MLB DFS today.
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