Michael King spent the last several weeks of the 2023 season as a member of the New York Yankees’ rotation following his dominant stretch as a high-leverage reliever. A significant part of the haul the San Diego Padres received for Juan Soto, King will provide the Padres with the most value in 2024. He projects as a starter going into the 2024 season and will almost assuredly be a good one at that, especially after experiencing such great success last season.
King will benefit greatly from trading Yankee Stadium, a notorious hitter’s paradise, for PetCo Park, which sways the complete opposite way. Currently projected as the Padres’ No. 3 starter following Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, King’s success will be one of the factors that impact the Padres’ season, as having three top starters makes a huge difference. King has two years of team control left and, if he can continue to grow into a top-end starter, he will most likely be looking at a massive payday in a couple of offseasons.
Through 40.1 innings as a starter in 2023, King had a 2.23/2.68/3.04 triple slash line of ERA/FIP/xFIP. Those numbers are stellar and came on top of an already successful stint as a reliever over the first few months of the season. King utilizes movement, command, and velocity to get hitters out, making his move into the starting rotation rather seamless.
Let’s explore what kind of ceiling King has and whether he can become one of the better starters in baseball next season.
Repertoire
Michael King has a diverse repertoire featuring a four-seam and two-seam fastball that are each distinct and are used as such. He focuses on using his four-seamer with plenty of carry at the top of the zone while letting his two-seamer tail into right-handed hitters. He compliments those two fastballs with a sweeping slider and a changeup. His sweeper has elite spin at 2785 rpm and plays off his sinker very well. Thus, while King’s fastballs and slider are all above-average offerings, the changeup lags behind those three and is not a very refined pitch.
Michael King, Sinker/Sweeper, Overlay
Funneling. pic.twitter.com/HFnt7RMgFW
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 24, 2023
This, however, can be seen as a direct result of King’s years in the bullpen. As a pitcher pitching in short stints, having a fourth pitch, especially one that is well behind his top three, has little to no value. Therefore, now that he will be starting full-time, there is a decent chance King can work on refining his changeup. Whether it has the potential to be above-average or just usable is unclear at this point, but a full offseason of training bodes well for the pitch’s long-term feasibility.
Mechanics
King is a cross-thrower, so he plants his left foot closer to third base instead of directly in front of his hind leg. This leads to King throwing across his body and adds a fair amount of deception to his delivery. This, too, is much more effective in shorter stints and may work against him as a starter. Although he utilizes his lower half extremely well, the planting of his foot toward third base puts undue stress on the elbow during his throwing motion.
The fact that he can repeat his mechanics very well and rarely misfires in his delivery makes it even more interesting. Although he crossfires, tinkering with such repeatable mechanics may not be very clever. His shoulders are fairly flat through his delivery, which many think tends to lead to a flatter fastball. Yet, in King’s case, this is far from significant because of the command he has on his four-seamer and the movement on his two-seamer. King rarely locates his four-seamer anywhere but up in the zone and the excellent two-plane movement on his sinker is not impacted in the slightest.
Location
The biggest area of improvement for King must come from locating his pitches. There are two aspects to locating pitches; one is to have command over where they are located and the other is intelligently locating them. Though King established his pitches in the outer area of the strike zone, he often failed to establish his pitches inside. This can work for pitchers coming out of the bullpen or even as a starter over a shorter period of games. However, to avoid becoming too predictable and hittable, King must find an equilibrium and be able to pitch to both sides of the plate. This is especially true if he has aspirations of becoming an ace-level pitcher.
His lack of locating intelligently is especially noteworthy considering King’s high-level degree of command. He has shown exceptional command with all of his pitches, rarely missing his spot with any of them. This means the adjustments Kings must make are as much mental and pitch strategy driven, or sequencing, as actual pitching adjustments. If King can take this next step with his sequencing and location, he can assuredly ascend to the top of the Padres rotation, if not higher.
Conclusion
King has all the makings of a breakout star and may have already broken out. While it’s a small consolation for a generational talent like Juan Soto, King’s salary and talent will help the Padres move forward next season. The major holdup for King is an innings limit. He will almost definitely be capped at around 140 or 150 innings given that last season was his first time surpassing 100 innings since 2018.
Therefore, toward the second half, regression may be inevitable as it is hard to maintain your mechanics and velocity the first time through a whole MLB season as a starter. I fully expect King to surprise many fans next year with a dazzling first half and then somewhat recede to the background over the final couple of months of the season.
Yet, as long as King stays healthy, he can continue to build on his extremely sound fundamentals and will grow and develop as a bona fide starter. King is above average mechanically and in terms of command, and he possesses an excellent repertoire. That combination of skills already vaults him past the vast majority of MLB starters. He’s a couple of important adjustments away from solidifying himself as a frontline starter and may very well make a ton of money on the open market in two offseasons.
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