After three weeks of action, just one game remains in the 2022 March Madness tournament. The National Championship Game is set to take place tonight at the Mercedes Benz Super Dome. Punching their ticket during a thrilling victory over the Villanova Wildcats, the Kansas Jayhawks will be looking to cut down the nets for the second time in the Bill Self era. In their way will be the North Carolina Tar Heels. In one of the stories of the month, Hubert Davis‘s group was able to pull off the shocking upset of their bitter rival, the Duke Blue Devils, during the Final Four. They are back in the big game for the first time since 2017. Here are four best bets for the final matchup of the college basketball season.
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Spread: Kansas -4 (-110)
Kansas has enjoyed an impressive run during March. The Jayhawks are the fourth No. 1 seed to advance to the National Championship game in the last five years. Fresh off a dominant second-half performance in their Elite Eight victory over the Miami Hurricanes, the team went wire to wire during their win over the Wildcats in the Final Four. Led by the play of their outstanding tandem of Ochai Agbaji and David McCormack, the duo answered every Villanova run. They combined for 46 points while shooting more than 75 percent from the field. Winners of their last 10 games, the program enters Monday night with a record of 7-3 against the spread over that period. Furthermore, they are also 6-2 straight up and 5-3 ATS when favored by less than five points.
The Tar Heels have been playing their best basketball of the season over the last three weeks. They have strung together victories over Marquette, Baylor, UCLA, and Saint Peter’s. Able to knock off Duke on Saturday night, the team edged out the Blue Devils in the final game for legendary head coach Mike Krzyzewski. Making his case for the most outstanding player of the tournament, Caleb Love paced the group with 28 points, including a massive three-pointer with under 30 seconds left to put the game out of reach. Needing to control the frontcourt if they hope to pull off the upset, one matchup to watch for North Carolina will be Armando Bacot versus McCormack.
A monster for the team all month long, Bacot has recorded a double-double in every game during the tournament and remains just one shy of David Robinson‘s all-time record. Riding the emotional high after knocking off their bitter in-state rival, the Tar Heels have the pace and offensive firepower to give the Jayhawks problems. However, after taking care of business through their first five games, look for the Kansas defense to get enough stops down the stretch to pull away late.
Total: Under 152.5 (-115)
One of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, North Carolina is also shooting over 40 percent of their attempts from the field from behind the arc. Helping them string together wins, the team will face its most challenging task yet against a stifling Kansas defense. They possess the size and length to match up with the Tar Heels at nearly every position.
Along with this, the Jayhawks are ranked 25th in the country in defending long balls. The group has allowed over double-digit three-pointers in a game just three times since January. With a lack of scoring provided by their bench all tournament long, the Tar Heels rely heavily on their starting five to rack up points in games. While the team has gone over the total in six of their last ten games, we will lean on the under in this one.
Prop: Brady Manek Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-125)
Manek has continued to be one of the best three-point marksmen in the nation. The 6’9″ forward is shooting just under 40 percent from behind the arc this season. One of the key pieces in the Tar Heel’s offense, he is averaging 21.5 points, eight rebounds, and two assists per game during the tournament. Along with this, the graduate transfer has recently been one of the hottest shooters in the game. He has hit at least three three-pointers in eight of his last 10 contests. While the Jayhawks defend the perimeter exceptionally well, they have the size and length to give North Carolina problems. However, with the line currently set at 2.5, this prop offers too much value to pass up. Look for it to cash early in the second half.
Prop: David McCormack Over 10.5 Points (-125)
McCormack has bounced back for the Jayhawks after struggling in the tournament a year ago. He has been one of the key cogs for the team during their run to the National Championship Game. Fresh off a 15 point night in their win over the Hurricanes in the Elite Eight, the 22-year-old was dominant in their victory over Villanova on Saturday night. The Norfolk, Virginia native got the ball all game long. This led him to post a season-high 25 points while also racking up nine rebounds and one assist. He is set to square off against Bacot in one of the matchups of the game. Look for him to dominate down low and cash this prop with ease.
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