There’s a transformation going on in Miami and from a fantasy football perspective, it’s quite attractive.
The Dolphins moved on from Adam Gase in early 2019 by bringing in former Patriots defensive coach Brian Flores. At the same time, they parted with a few unneeded contracts in Kenny Stills, Kenyan Drake, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Laremy Tunsil before going out and revamping their defense with the signings of Byron Jones, Kyle Van Noy, Eric Rowe, Emmanuel Ogbah, Shaq Lawson, and Kamu Grugier-Hill.
The Dolphins also managed to accumulate three first-round picks, which they spent on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, offensive lineman Austin Jackson, and cornerback Noah Igbinoghene.
While adding Tagovailoa and Jackson were great moves for Miami’s young core, the offense didn’t get the same boost of additions that the defense witnessed. While the acquisitions of running backs Jordan Howard and Matt Breida were necessary, the majority of Miami’s offensive progression will need to come from players already in the system.
One of those players is second-year wide receiver Preston Williams, who has an ADP of 153 in PPR drafts, according to Fantasy Football Calculator.
The 23-year-old Williams went undrafted out of Colorado State in 2019 but quickly found himself in a highly-regarded role in Miami’s depleted offense. He opened on the bench in Week 1 but found himself in the starting lineup for the next seven weeks before tearing his ACL in Week 9, ultimately ending his bid for Rookie of the Year.
In eight games (seven starts), Williams hauled in 32 passes on 60 targets for 428 yards and three touchdowns, good for 13.4 yards per reception.
Williams’s ADP checks out to the ninth pick in the 13th round of a 12-team draft. He currently slots in at WR36 in my positional PPR rankings and 81st in my overall (all positions) rankings.
Williams found himself on the field for an average of 50.5 of the team’s offensive snaps in games in which he played, totaling 404 plays. In comparison to his teammates, Williams’s average number of snaps per game put him third among Miami’s skill players. Only quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (58.5) and fellow wideout DeVante Parker (56.7) tallied more snaps per game than their rookie teammate.
Of Williams’s seven starts last year, he finished with more offensive snaps than Parker twice. Parker edged him out twice, too, while they tied three times. Parker appeared in just 12 more offensive plays than Williams during this time frame.
Perhaps more impressive here is that while Williams lined up for 50.5 offensive plays per game, 42.1 were pass plays. For those who can’t do the math right away, this stat explains that when Williams was on the field, Miami would pass 83.4 percent of the time. That metric put him fourth among all wide receivers in the NFL last season. Whether you wanted more evidence or not, the data proves that Williams was an essential part of the team’s passing game.
Williams also finished with a 13.6 ADOT (Average Depth of Reception), which placed him second among all Dolphins players and just four-tenths of a point behind DeVante Parker. It also led him to finish 26th out of all running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers in the NFL. Williams’s ADOT edged out those of star players such as Odell Beckham Jr., Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, and Adam Thielen. Only two Pro Bowl wideouts finished with a higher ADOT than Williams (Mike Evans, 15.1; Kenny Golladay, 14.6) while the other 12 receivers had lower scores.
While ADOT is not the greatest stat for projections, it is arguably the best metric in terms of analyzing a receiver’s true value and yardage as opposed to a stat like yards per catch, which can be flawed after just one busted coverage or trick play.
Further, while not exactly a stat limited to fantasy football, Williams was contested for 21 of his targets in 2019 and was able to haul in 10 of them. This 47.6 percent rate put him 14th among all receivers in the league.
In Williams’s eight games last year, he finished with more than 10 fantasy points four times and under 10 points just thrice. His best week of the year was Week 9 against the New York Jets, where he had five catches for 72 yards and two touchdowns (24.2 fantasy points) before his ACL injury prompted an early exit.
In terms of competition, Williams and Parker complement each other nicely, and neither of them should worry about any backup receivers taking too large a number of their targets.
But that leaves one question.
Who will be the No. 1 receiver in Miami by the mid-way point of the season?
Your initial reaction is surely Parker because he had an incredible fantasy season last year. However, a large chunk of his success came from Fitzpatrick’s larger-than-expected commitment to Parker. When the Dolphins switch to Tagovailoa this year, Parker can expect a drop in targets.
Of Parker’s five worst fantasy games last year, Fitzpatrick’s backup, Josh Rosen, threw at least 18 passes in three of them and started two. (For context, Rosen threw 18-plus passes just four times and started only three games.) While this might say more about Rosen than Parker, it definitely has an impact on the latter. After all, it’s no secret that fantasy owners who have stocks of Parker are already talking about selling him when the team hands over the keys of the offense to Tagovailoa.
It’s also worth noting that while Williams and Parker have both garnered lots of hype during training camp, there has been virtually nothing negative said about Williams. The same can’t be said about Parker.
Now, let’s revisit that question.
Who will be the No. 1 receiver in Miami by the mid-way point of the season?
You’re not going to like this answer, but there’s no clear choice yet. It’s quite possible that Williams and Parker, who both posted nearly equal snap counts and ADOTs during the games in which the former was active, will complement each other in 2020.
But with that in mind, you’d be foolish to pass on Williams at his average draft position in the later portion of the 13th round. After all, he could finish the year as his team’s top non-quarterback point-scorer. With WR2 projections and WR1 potential, anyone who snags Williams in the 10th round or later will be getting a true steal.
So draft wisely. But more importantly, draft Williams. You won’t regret it.
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