It’s August, meaning fantasy football drafts are happening on every platform and everyone thinks that they know more than anyone else. With the season around the corner, some players look back to last year to see how players played. If you’re like those people, then Jared Goff is off of your draft board. Fortunately, some analysts look deeper into the scope of his season which I will do today. Instead of telling you to not draft him though, I’m telling you to draft Goff. According to Fantasy Pros PPR ADP, Goff is being selected as the QB18 and the 140th player off the board overall.
Make sure to check out all of our other Making the Case articles.
Goff finished as the QB13 last year after finishing as the QB12 in 2017 and QB7 in 2018. With him being selected as the QB18 currently, he’s being taken after the likes of Tom Brady, Daniel Jones, Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Tannehill, and Baker Mayfield, who I have all lower than Goff in my personal rankings.
If you dive deeper into the game logs, you can see that Goff had a trio of horrendous games between weeks 10 and 12 against Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Baltimore, all being top defenses in the league last year. In those three games, he compiled a total of only 18.32 points (6.11 per game), which ranked 31st in the league. In reality, he ranked 32nd as Brandon Allen only played two games compared to Goff’s three and was only .84 less than Goff’s total.
If you take those three games out of the equation, he averaged 18.02 points per game and if you put that average to a 16-game season, Goff totals 288.25 points for the season, which would’ve ranked ninth at the position. If you take a look at his totals from week 13 on, Goff averaged 21.58 PPG which was good enough for sixth in that timeframe.
Last year, Goff had two top-15 receivers as Cooper Kupp finished as the WR4 and Robert Woods as the WR14. Brandin Cooks was a shell of his former self last year as well as he finished as the WR62 before being shipped off to Houston this offseason. Tyler Higbee finished as the TE8 last year and was the TE1 during Goff’s hot streak between weeks 13 and 17.
A big part of Goff’s lack of success last year was that teams were finally able to slow down Todd Gurley. Once teams stopped Gurley, they knew that Goff was going to get antsy and make some bad decisions, resulting in a career-high 16 interceptions. He eventually wound up not throwing to Gurley because he was a shell of his former self as well. Now with Gurley out the door, the Rams need another option in the backfield to help Goff and may have found that with Cam Akers. While Akers will have to battle with Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown, he offers more of the complete skillset the Rams had with Gurley as he had 1,144 yards and five yards a carry last year behind a horrendous Florida State offensive line.
Of course, the things you remember are the beginning of the season where he may have cost you some games but the Rams seemed to have found a groove that they’ll likely use this season. When both Higbee and Gerald Everett were on the field, the Rams succeeded. Los Angeles also added Brycen Hopkins to the tight end group during the draft, providing them with yet another explosive option in that group. Along with Hopkins, the Rams also have Josh Reynolds returning, and they also used a selection on Van Jefferson and picked up Trishton Jackson as an undrafted free agent. With all the new additions, the Rams have eight options they can go to in the passing game and that’s not counting any of the running backs.
The two biggest things that Goff’s fantasy production falls on is the scheme Sean McVay runs and the offensive line. Last year, the offensive line took a drastic step back which made for Goff not feeling comfortable and without that safety valve in Gurley, wound up making some very questionable throws. He also threw the most in the league last year, which should’ve gone for more fantasy points. Due to the offensive line though, those fantasy points never showed up. McVay’s scheme he ran for the Super Bowl run has seemingly been figured out by some of the league’s elite defenses. Fortunately, the Rams have one of the best young offensive minds in the league that can quickly turn the team around, as he did from week 13 on last year.
The fantasy community is once again low on Goff. Last year was a very weird year for Goff’s production as he threw the most in the league but the offensive line drastically brought down his play. The Cooks’ departure isn’t as big as people make it out to be and might not impact the offense at all. Gurley’s departure opens the door for a new offensive approach and could open the door for more play-action passes, which Goff excelled at down the stretch last year.
Goff’s floor is right around where he is being selected currently barring injury, but his ceiling is much higher, perhaps in the realm of a top-five option at the quarterback spot this season. Goff’s schedule at the start of the season is solid as he faces off against Dallas who just lost Byron Jones. After that, Philadelphia and Buffalo are solid tests to see if he and McVay have figured things out yet again before two fantastic matchups against the New York Giants and Washington. If you’re a person that likes to wait to select a quarterback in fantasy leagues, Goff is an excellent option and comes with a super high upside as well.
Follow Mason Thompson on Twitter @Thompson22Mason
Main Image Credit:
One Response