The 2020 NFL season is just around the corner, and that means it’s time to get ready for fantasy football. Every year fantasy owners select players that either hit or turn into a bust. In this article, I will explain why fantasy owners should target Indianapolis Colts’ tight end Jack Doyle. According to Fantasy Pros PPR ADP, Doyle is being selected as the TE18 and 151st overall player off the board.
Make sure to check out all of our other Making the Case articles.
Despite playing with Jacoby Brissett, an often injured T.Y. Hilton, and on an inefficient passing attack, Doyle still managed to have a solid 2019 season. Doyle finished the year as the TE15, averaging seven fantasy points per game. However, he finished as a top 12 tight end in 33% of his games. Doyle’s 72 targets were tied for the most on the team while his four touchdowns were second-most on the team. None of these numbers should overly impress you, but outside of the elite tight ends, how many would have had success in that Colts offense? Probably none.
On top of all the issues on offense, Doyle had to deal with splitting time with Eric Ebron. Thankfully for Doyle, the Colts let Ebron leave in free agency and didn’t do much to replace him. Ebron played in 11 games last season, and it had an impact on Doyle’s workload. In the 11 games Ebron played, Doyle saw 42 targets and had a 12% target share. By comparison, in the five games Ebron missed, Doyle saw 30 targets and had an 18.5% target share. With Ebron gone and improved quarterback play, Doyle should see an uptick in target share this season.
The 2018 season wasn’t any better for Doyle as he played in just six games because of injury. So to get a real example of what Doyle can do without Ebron in the way we need to look at his 2017 season. That season Doyle had a career year with a 16 game pace of 85 catches on 115 targets for 736 yards, four touchdowns, and a 23.8% target share. Those numbers come out to 11.3 fantasy points per game, good for the TE5 on the season. What fantasy owners should take away from this is the 23.8% target share. Despite having Brissett throwing to him, Doyle was able to produce. Now he gets a future Hall of Famer in Philip Rivers and his love for throwing to the tight end position.
|
Year |
Target Share |
Touchdown Rate |
|
|
2019 |
17.1% |
29% |
|
|
2018 |
9.1% |
6.3% |
|
|
Hunter Henry |
2017 |
12.3% |
16.3% |
|
Antonio Gates |
2016 |
18.4% |
24.2% |
|
Antonio Gates |
2015 |
18.7% |
25.1% |
|
Antonio Gates |
2014 |
17.2% |
38.7% |
Over his last six season seasons with the Los Angeles Chargers, Rivers has favored his tight end. Removing the 2018 season when a 38 years old Gates was signed late in the offseason to replace the hurt Henry, Rivers’ top tight end has had at least a 12% target share and a 16% touchdown rate. Furthermore, during Rivers’ 14 seasons as a starting quarterback, his tight end has finished as a top 13 guy on a fantasy points per game basis 93% of the time.
The argument that Doyle won’t see a high enough target share because of the stacked roster the Colts have isn’t accurate. In 2017 they had Hilton, a veteran Frank Gore, a rookie Marlon Mack, and no other proven weapons. This season the Colts will have Hilton, the veteran Mack, the rookie Jonathan Taylor, and no other proven weapons. While some have high hopes for Parris Campbell this season, Doyle and Hilton are the veterans of the receiving core and will be the focal point of the passing attack. Given Hilton’s history with injuries and Rivers’ history of using his tight end, Doyle is a steal at his current ADP.
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