Every year there seem to be a few tight ends that have a breakout season. In 2018 it was George Kittle and last year it was Mark Andrews and Darren Waller. This year there is a couple of intriguing options but one seems to rise above the rest that has the highest ceiling. Hayden Hurst was shipped from Baltimore to Atlanta during the offseason and will be the topic of conversation today. He is currently the 110th player off the board as the TE13.
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Hurst was the odd man out in Baltimore. He only had 43 catches through his first two seasons after being a first-round choice. After Andrews had his breakout, the Ravens didn’t need Hurst on the squad and decided to trade him. With Austin Hooper heading to Cleveland in free agency, the Falcons had a big hole at the position and decided to send Baltimore a second-round selection to acquire Hurst.
While Hurst has loads of talent, the biggest factor here is Matt Ryan and how he has used his tight ends in the past. Below is a table of how tight ends have finished since 2012 in Atlanta:
|
Year |
Player |
Fantasy Finish |
|
2012 |
2nd (234) |
|
|
2012 |
Tony Gonzalez |
2nd (218.9) |
|
2014 |
33rd (64.8) |
|
|
2015 |
T-13th (130.7) |
|
|
2016 |
Austin Hooper |
38th (64.1) |
|
2017 |
Austin Hooper |
17th (119.6) |
|
2018 |
Austin Hooper |
6th (163) |
|
2019 |
Austin Hooper |
6th (191.7) |
Over the last eight years, six times has Atlanta’s tight end been a TE1 or just outside of one. The other two times were when the leading tight end was a rookie. While Hurst is in his first year in Atlanta, he is in a great spot to succeed.
Even with the Falcons having one of the premier receiver duos in the league with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, there is still a lot of work to go around. The Falcons lost 243 targets from last year’s passing game between the departures of Hooper, Devonta Freeman, Mohamed Sanu, Justin Hardy, and Kenjon Barner, the most in the league. Between Hooper, Freeman, and Sanu alone, the Falcons now have an average of 16 vacated targets per game.
Hooper had 97 targets alone last year. While Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus should have expanded roles this year, Atlanta didn’t add a weapon that could take a bulk of those targets other than Hurst. The only other notable additions besides Hurst were Laquon Treadwell and Todd Gurley. While Treadwell could be vying for the third receiver spot, he will be the fifth man in the receiving line, even behind Gurley, who seemed afraid to catch passes last year.
Ryan threw 616 passes last year with Hooper getting about 16% of the target share despite missing three games. He averaged about 7.5 targets per game and six catches and scored a touchdown in about half of his games. That seems to be right around the range that Hurst will be getting. The rushing attack should finally be a factor again with another year behind the same offensive line, which should open up more time for Ryan to be in the pocket. With Ryan having more time, it enables him to find his receivers more than he did last year.
Hurst has all the opportunity to become a top-twelve tight end this year and the TE12 could very well be his floor. As the TE13 currently, he is being taken behind Hooper, Rob Gronkowski, and Hunter Henry, who many have below Hurst in their rankings. He has the opportunity to finally break out and is being taken late in drafts. Many fantasy players like to wait and try snagging a high-upside talent at the tight end position late and Hurst could be just that and maybe more.
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