There will be plenty of highlighted matchups between the star players on each side of the ball for Green Bay and Los Angeles on Saturday. In order to truly understand the impact each matchup will have and who is most likely to win each matchup, here is the Rams vs. Packers: What the Stats Say.
Davante Adams vs. Jalen Ramsey
Adams is the top in his field, and many see Ramsey as the best in his field. However, when you break down the numbers of Ramsey while actively in coverage this year, he is no longer the best. Many teams avoid his “island” to be safe due to his effectiveness in the past, but Aaron Rodgers and Adams will not be that scared this weekend, so let’s see what may happen.
Ramsey vs. Top Receivers:
Week 1: Amari Cooper (10 catches, 81 yards)
Week 2: DeSean Jackson (6 catches, 64 yards)
Week 3: Stefon Diggs (4 catches, 49 yards, 1 TD)
Week 4: Darius Slayton (3 catches, 49 yards)
Week 5: Terry McLaurin (3 catches, 26 yards)
Week 6: Deebo Samuel (6 catches, 66 yards, 1 TD)
Week 7: Allen Robinson (4 catches, 70 yards)
Week 8: DeVante Parker (1 catch, 3 yards)
Week 9: D.K. Metcalf (2 catches, 28 yards)
Week 10: Mike Evans (5 catches, 49 yards, 1 TD)
Week 11: Deebo Samuel (11 catches, 133 yards)
Week 12: DeAndre Hopkins (5 catches, 82 yards, 1 TD)
Week 13: Damiere Byrd (5 catches, 48 yards)
Week 14: Jamison Crowder (6 catches, 66 yards)
Week 15: D.K. Metcalf (6 catches, 59 yards)
Week 16: DeAndre Hopkins (4 catches, 35 yards)
Looking at the numbers, Ramsey only allowed four touchdowns this season to the receivers he trailed for the majority of the game. Although Ramsey sometimes is motioned off of a receiver, he generally takes the opposing team’s top guy and runs with him all day long. To take this into account, Pro Football Focus assigned grades for each corner in 2020 while they were actively in coverage. Ramsey ranked 10th in the NFL with a rating of 77.6 in coverage, Ironically enough, Adams’ teammate Jaire Alexander actually was the highest-rated coverage corner in the NFL with an outstanding 90.6 rating.
After his breakout season in 2017, opponents simply do not target Ramsey’s side of the field. When they do, he is elite, but not unbeatable. The scariest thing for the Packers should be that Darious Williams, the corner opposite Ramsey, ranks the fourth-best corner in the NFL with an 83.3 grade. Given the high volume of targets run through Adams, 28 percent of Rodgers’ total attempts, the Rams benefit from having two guys they can trust to shadow Adams.
From the Rams’ perspective, what do they have to fear in Adams? He was the top-rated receiver in the NFL, with a grade of 92.2, and the next closest on the list was A.J. Brown with a rating of 90.4. Adams is the only receiver in NFL history with 100 receptions and 18 touchdowns. He led the NFL in yards per game and the highlight reels created from Adams’ footwork this season will be shown for decades. Adams faced five different top 25 corners this season, and never failed to find the end zone against any of them. In a fight between great (Ramsey) and greater (Adams), it appears Adams has the edge, even if he is on the Ramsey Island.
Highest-graded vs. single coverage:
1. Davante Adams – 96.4
T-2. Justin Jefferson – 94.0
T-2. Stefon Diggs – 94.0
4. Adam Thielen – 93.6 pic.twitter.com/IfoEyVFddj— PFF (@PFF) January 7, 2021
Aaron Donald vs. Corey Linsley
Donald is the best interior lineman in the NFL, and it is not even close.
Aaron Donald is a monster in the trenches 💪
(via @thecheckdown) pic.twitter.com/3E0y0SUQS2
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 9, 2021
NFL teams surround their entire game plan around stopping Donald, and it usually fails every single week. Thankfully, the Green Bay Packers also have the best center in the NFL in Linsley, and that is not close either.
PFF Grades
Linsley – 89.9
Donald – 94.5
Against top 10 offensive line units this season, Donald produced seven sacks in those four games. As amazing as Donald’s stats are, Linsley’s are equally as amazing. In his 13 starts this season, Linsley allowed a total of three pressures on the quarterback. That turns out to about .23 pressures per game this season. The Packers have the second-best rated offensive line in the NFL, so if any team is suited to handle Donald, it is Green Bay. However, given the ability for Donald to play on the edge and interior, he will find his way to Rodgers at some point on Saturday. Expect double teams, chips, extra protection, and everything Nathaniel Hackett can throw Donald’s way.
Jared Goff vs. The Frozen Tundra
This may seem a little ridiculous, but the Packers have a big home-field advantage at Lambeau Field for a reason. In his time as an NFL starter, Goff has only played in two games where the weather was near-freezing temperatures. In those two games, he has a 34.5 passer rating, 47.2 percent completion rate, zero touchdown passes, five interceptions. To compare, Rodgers has played in six of those games since 2016 alone, throwing 10 touchdowns, only one interception, and finishing with a 108.7 passer rating and 65.8 percent completion rate. Given Goff’s thumb injury and his inexperience ever playing in the cold, the temperature may actually play a factor on Saturday.
Ultimately, you have the best NFL offense facing the best NFL defense. With Goff hurt, there will be pressure on Cam Akers and the Rams running game to ease the load of Goff against the second-ranked secondary in the NFL. With fans in the stands for the first time this season, it will be a rocking divisional matchup on the Frozen Tundra.
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