John Lepore | August 30th, 2019
The baseball season is a grind. It’s every single day. We will approach DFS the same way and be winners at the end of the season even if we have our hot streaks and slumps. Every day there are safe bets that flop and values that hit big, but we need to stick with our strategy in evaluating and playing. Let’s take a look at what we have today.
Locks
Max Fried – The Atlanta Braves lefty struggled a bit when he visited Citi Field last Saturday. Overall in the four starts before that though, Fried averaged 22 pts on DraftKings which included a 32.4 performance on the road against the Minnesota Twins. He draws the Chicago White Sox at home tonight. The White Sox are fourth in the AL in strikeouts with 1,266 and last in walks with 302. In particular, Yoan Moncada struggles against lefties. This season only 4 of his 22 HRs have come against southpaws in 132 PAs. Moncada also has a disappointing .737 OPS vs LHP as opposed to .946 vs RHP. The Braves are also at home which means Ivan Nova will have to bat. He is 0-4 with 3 Ks on the season.
Aaron Nola – As indicated by his last three starts, we should know what we are getting from Nola. The Philadelphia Phillies righty has had exactly 7 IP, 1 BB, and 7 Ks in each of those games. Nola also does very well against the New York Mets. This season, in three starts, he has a 3.06 ERA in 17.2 IP with 22 Ks and only one HR allowed. Jeff McNeil, Wilson Ramos, Michael Conforto, and Amed Rosario are a combined 18-90 with 26 Ks and only one HR against Nola in their careers.
Stacks
Minnesota Twins vs Edwin Jackson – The Twins roughed up the Detroit Tigers righty last Saturday at Target Field to the tune of six runs in five innings and a couple of bombs. The combo of Nelson Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez is 12-31 with 3 doubles, a HR, and a 3/1 BB/K rate facing Jackson. Max Kepler and Miguel Sano have also hit homers off of him. The Twins should get to Edwin and then quickly get into the Tigers bullpen as Jackson has only recorded an out in the sixth inning once in his nine starts this season.
Texas Rangers vs Marco Gonzales – This is a little bit of a leap of faith as Gonzales has been consistent this season and the Rangers haven’t been hitting. Hear me out though. The Rangers have a .796 OPS at home vs .704 on the road and they also steal nearly a base per game at home (60 SB in 66 GP). While Marco Gonzales has been decent this year, he is not nearly as good away from Safeco Field. While he has kept the ERA respectable at 4.02, Gonzales has a 1.401 WHIP, only a 24/59 BB/K rate and has given up 12 HRs in 80.2 innings. Finally, the combination of Shin-Soo Choo, Rougned Odor, and Elvis Andrus is 20-51 against the Seattle lefty.
Barrels
DJ LeMahieu – Lock him in now. The guy has two hits in each of his last four games with two of them going over the fence. He also hasn’t struck out which tells me he is locked in right now. He will be facing lefty Brett Anderson tonight, who he is 5-13 against with a HR. DJ is slashing .405/.458/.695 against southpaws with 9 HRs in 144 PAs. LeMahieu in Yankee Stadium against a lefty? Yes, Please.
Hunter Renfroe – The San Diego Padres outfielder has struggled recently having gone nearly three weeks without a HR. Never fear, tonight he gets one. When does Renfroe hit? On the road? Check. Against a lefty? Check. Renfroe has a better road OPS (.825-.775), a better OPS vs lefties (.970 – .749) and in his career against Madison Bumgarner, he is 6-18 with 3 bombs. Considering he is only $3,700 on DK, he is an absolute steal tonight.
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