John Lepore | August 23rd, 2019
The baseball season is a grind. It’s every single day. We will approach DFS the same way and be winners at the end of the season even if we have our hot streaks and slumps. Every day there are safe bets that flop and values that hit big, but we need to stick with our strategy in evaluating and playing. Let’s take a look at what we have today.
Locks
Lance Lynn – The big righty from the Texas Rangers will be on the road against the Chicago White Sox tonight. Although his last start wasn’t particularly good, he was facing a tough Minnesota Twins offense. In the previous four starts, he only allowed 4 ERs in 25 IP along with a 32/10 K/BB rate. Take the strikeout upside here and the fact that Lynn has been quite consistent. Of his 26 starts this season, Lynn has had 8+ Ks 14 times and in his last 10 starts, he has done it six times. He has also thrown over 110 pitches in eight of those games. The White Sox have six players over 90 strikeouts, are last in walks with 291, and are second to last in runs scored with 538.
José Berríos – The Twins ace will face the Detroit Tigers at Target Field. In his career, Berríos has a smooth 3.54 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and strikes out just over a batter per inning (277 Ks in 269.2 IP). The real compelling reason to get Berríos in your lineup is his opponent. The lowly Tigers have the worst offense in the AL. They are last in HRs (119), runs (452), and OPS (.678). They have also struck out 1,255 times which is second only to Texas (1,276).
Stacks
Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals – Jakob Junis has not done well against the Indians this year. He has faced them five times and is 1-3 with a 6.52 ERA. The guy to have everywhere in your lineups is Francisco Lindor. He owns Junis going 15-29 with 3 HRs against him in his career. Other guys to add onto the stack would be Carlos Santana, Tyler Naquin, and José Ramírez. Those three are a combined 20-55 with 2 HRs and 6 BBs against the Royals righty.
Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros – Yes, I know Zack Greinke is pitching for the Astros, but there are a few guys who have some experience against him. Justin Upton, Albert Pujols, Kole Calhoun, and Mike Trout are a sweet 35-92 with 17 XBH (9 DOs, 3 TRs, 5 HRs) and 10 BBs slashing .380/.437/.707 against the veteran right-hander. Upton may be the top play here as he has three of the five HRs off Greinke and a 6/6 BB/K rate.
Barrels
Welington Castillo – I’m sure he will be lightly owned so this should be a good GPP play. Castillo is 0 for his last 8 with 7 Ks. Before that though, he had a seven-game hitting streak with four multi-hit games and a couple dingers. He has had a couple days off and now will face Lance Lynn and the Texas Rangers. This is the game he gets back to the beef. He is 9-15 with 3 bombs off Lynn in his career and loves facing the Rangers as Castillo is 24-52 with a 1.174 OPS against them.
Freddie Freeman – He is always an option because of the consistency he brings. Tonight though he may not be widely owned because he is facing Jacob deGrom. Don’t be scared away. The Atlanta Braves first baseman is a cool 14-51 with 3 HRs and 7 BBs against the New York Mets ace. Freeman doesn’t mind hitting on the road. During the last seven-game road trip, he went 12-28 with 3 HRs. He has also put up the power with nine HRs in August and has a career .922 OPS against the Mets which is the highest against any NL East opponent.
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