On Tuesday, Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic wrote a story about the Houston Astros and the alleged electronic sign stealing, confirmed by ex-Astros starting pitcher Mike Fiers.
The process of sign stealing would end with an apparent “bang” sound whenever the pitcher would be throwing a secondary pitch, and silence when it was one of his primary pitches.
Astros using cameras to steal signs, a breakdown pic.twitter.com/rncm6qzXxw
— Jomboy (@Jomboy_) November 12, 2019
While the allegations appear legit, and the evidence is clear as day, there have been conflicting responses around the league. Most notably is the response from ex-Astros designated hitter and recently-hired rookie manager Carlos Beltran, who admitted that the Astros stole signs but didn’t do it illegally.
That being said, that’s not what the public wants to pay attention to. There has become a laundry-list of allegations forming against the three-time reigning AL West Champions, but it’s the new precedent of immediately assessing guilt because one person who played for them made an accusation; one who wouldn’t even benefit from the alleged activity.
Carlos Beltran was a position player, a guy who would be able to reap the benefits of this electronic sign stealing, and he wouldn’t come forth and double down on the accusations made.
But that’s neither here nor there. The question at hand is simply this: How much did this truly help the Houston Astros?
Well, let’s look at the numbers for the Houston Astros at home compared to away since the start of the 2017 season.
Home: .270/.343/.465 (.808 OPS), 357 home runs, 1,257 runs scored, a .343 wOBA, a 122 wRC+, and a +320 run differential
Away: .270/.342/.468 (.810 OPS), 374 home runs, 1,356 runs scored a .344 wOBA, a 116 wRC+, and a +419 run differential
Well, would you look at that? The numbers border on identical, and one could even argue that the Astros are better offensively away from Minute Maid Park.
Now, let’s look at some of the team’s key position players over the same time-frame.
Jose Altuve:
Home: 894 PA, .300/.370/.487 (.857 OPS), a .365 wOBA, and a 136 wRC+
Away: 915 PA, .342/.399/.545 (.944 OPS), a .399 wOBA, and a 153 wRC+
George Springer:
Home: 893 PA, .280/.364/.503 (.867 OPS), a .368 wOBA, and a 139 wRC+
Away: 912 PA, .279/.366/.521 (.887 OPS), a .374 wOBA, and a 136 wRC+
Alex Bregman:
Home: 998 PA, .285/.388/.509 (.897 OPS), a .381 wOBA, and a 147 wRC+
Away: 1,023 PA, .292/.394/.556 (.950 OPS), a .398 wOBA, and a 152 wRC+
Carlos Correa:
Home: 593 PA, .277/.363/.499 (.862 OPS), a .362 wOBA, and a 135 wRC+
Away: 677 PA, .279/.353/.504 (.857 OPS), a .359 wOBA, and a 126 wRC+
Carlos Beltran (2017 season):
Home: 255 PA, .236/.286/.403 (.690 OPS), a .291 wOBA, and an 85 wRC+
Away: 254 PA, .226/.280/.363 (.643 OPS), a .276 wOBA, and a 68 wRC+
Evan Gattis (2017-18):
Home: 373 PA, .229/.284/.416 (.701 OPS), a .298 wOBA, and a 91 wRC+
Away: 403 PA, .254/.305/.489 (.794 OPS), a .334 wOBA, and a 100 wRC+
The lone player to see a significant benefit from this was Beltran, and his sample size is only one season’s worth of plate appearances in his final year at the MLB level.
So, if the Astros are gaining a significant advantage by electronically stealing signs and relaying what pitch is what to the batter, why are the numbers identical on the road? Why are many of their key players seeing their performance on the road beat their performance at home?
After all, according to the accusations made by Fiers, the Astros stole signs during home games but said nothing about the road.
Maybe, in the grand scheme of things, sign-stealing doesn’t give you that much of a competitive edge.
At the end of the day, the team only won one World Series throughout the past three seasons. While they’ve remained competitive, at least making the ALCS in each of the past two years, that speaks more towards the structure of the roster put together by general manager Jeff Luhnow than it does towards the fact they illegally stole signs electronically.
It’s easy to be mad at the Astros considering all of the controversies that have come from their camp over the past few seasons. But in the case of sign stealing, there isn’t much of a gripe to be had.
With all of that in mind, they still deserve to be punished for getting caught doing something illegal. At the end of the day, however, there’s no mathematical proof that would indicate that the Astros benefitted from this at all.
