This time of the season in Major League Baseball is like none other. Especially when there are a bunch of bubble teams that have a laundry list of attractive commodities on the roster.
I’m talking about the MLB Trade Deadline. This year adds a little bit of a twist because there are no longer allowed to be August waiver wire deals; so if you want somebody, you have to acquire them by 4 p.m. ET on Jul. 31.
There have been a plethora of rumors to spill out over the past month or so, but with teams catching fire –– most notably the Giants, who are 17-4 in their last 21 games –– it’s growing increasingly uncertain of what teams are buying and what teams are selling.
There are about 15 or so trade pieces out there that could get a contender over the hump, so I am going to try and predict where they end up –– if traded at all.
Madison Bumgarner – San Francisco Giants – LHP – 3.66 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 2.4 fWAR
Aug. 1 team: San Francisco Giants
There have been a ton of rumors circling about the man they call “MadBum” ever since the Giants fell out of the playoff picture in the early stages of 2017. However, injuries and underachieving from the left-hander stalled the desire to move him. Finally in a year where he’s pitching at a high level and healthy, the Giants could easily find a suitable package for the impending free agent. Teams like the Yankees, Brewers, Braves, and Athletics all could use a gritty bulldog for their hopeful run into October, but since the Giants have won 17 of their last 21, I see them using the left-hander as their own rental and go for one last run.
Marcus Stroman – Toronto Blue Jays – RHP – 2.96 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 2.9 fWAR
Aug. 1 team: New York Yankees
Stroman might be the most likely to be traded of all the targets listed here. He’s having a career-year, and looks to be getting stronger with each start. The New York Yankees are desperate for a guy who can go out there every fifth day and just shove it down the opponent’s throat, and Stroman might be the guy with the most gaul who can get that done. His fiery personality is a change of pace from the boring guys like J.A. Happ and James Paxton, but Stroman is going to irritate you every time he faces you. Exactly what the Yankees need, and exactly why I see Brian Cashman pulling the trigger on this deal.
Matthew Boyd – Detroit Tigers – LHP – 4.07 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 3.3 fWAR
Aug. 1 team: Philadelphia Phillies
Of the three names mentioned so far, Boyd might be the most interesting case of the bunch. He was 5-4 with a 2.85 ERA in his first 12 starts, but since then he’s 1-4 with a 5.74 ERA in his past nine starts. This wouldn’t worry me as the acquiring team too much if it hadn’t been an issue in the past. Boyd had a better second half than first last season, but in 2017 he had an ERA 1.59 runs worse in the second half. For a team that has no excuse to miss the playoffs, this should concern the Phillies. However, the only dependable starter they have right now is Aaron Nola. With Bumgarner likely staying put and Stroman likely headed for Yankee pinstripes, the Phillies need to get gutsy.
Will Smith – San Francisco Giants – LHP – 2.44 ERA, 24 saves, 1.3 fWAR
Aug. 1 team: Tampa Bay Rays
The Giants have one of the best bullpens in baseball statistically, and a glaring need for offense. This is a move that might hurt one aspect of their team to drastically help another. MLB insiders have linked the Rays to Smith for a few weeks now and cited infielder Joey Wendle (.789 OPS last season) as a potential piece going back to the Bay Area. In return, the Rays get another guy with flexibility in the bullpen, but more importantly a proven closer. Diego Castillo has struggled this month, and an acquisition of Smith allows for Castillo to settle into a role he’s more comfortable with.
Noah Syndergaard – New York Mets – RHP – 4.33 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 2.7 fWAR
Aug 1 team: Milwaukee Brewers
Ah, the Mets. Remember when recently-hired GM Brodie Van Wagenen made that huge deal to acquire Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano from the Mariners and everyone went “The Mets are going to be good, aren’t they?” We should’ve seen this coming. Mets fans are becoming what Knicks fans are in basketball: Easily excitable, always disappointed. Van Wagenen can invoke some faith into his fan base by sending away the right-hander for a pool of prospects to replace the holes vacated by Justin Dunn and Jarred Kelenic. The Brewers, however, just lost one of their horses from last year’s playoff run in Jhoulys Chacin –– who, while having a poor season, still came up big last season in October. With him out due to an oblique strain, the Brewers need a potential horse this Jul. 31, and Noah Syndergaard would be perfect for that team moving forward.
Zack Wheeler – New York Mets – RHP – 4.69 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 2.6 fWAR
Aug. 1 team: Minnesota Twins
I firmly believe that Zack Wheeler could be the steal of the deadline. And who better to swoop in and snag him than everyone’s dark horse in the Minnesota Twins? The Twins are staked to a 2.5-game lead over the Cleveland Indians, and desperately need to find a way to widen the gap once again down the stretch. Relying on the home run ball every night isn’t going to cut it, so they need to add to their rotation with a guy who can eat up innings. Wheeler does just that. However, he’s been out since Jul. 7. But before that, he was eating up innings left and right, going six or more in 15 of his 19 starts this season. In those starts, Wheeler posted a 3.61 ERA, 9.75 K/9, 2.07 BB/9, and 8.14 H/9. Which goes to show that his numbers are spiked by a few really bad outings. The Twins could very well use his services, and I think he’d be perfect to compliment Jose Berrios at the top of that Twins rotation.
Edwin Diaz – New York Mets – RHP – 4.81 ERA, 22 saves, 0.6 fWAR
Aug 1 team: Boston Red Sox
Another Mets player cracks this list. This time it’s one of the players Brodie Van Wagenen acquired this past winter. Edwin Diaz, who many felt was the best closer in baseball entering this season, has seen his production hit a wall. While he hasn’t allowed a run since the All-Star Break, his ERA since May 1 is over six. In other words, he’d fit in perfectly with the already underwhelming Red Sox bullpen. Seriously though, this is the perfect buy-low scenario the Red Sox could be getting this summer –– because not many pitchers follow up a 57-save season by getting traded to the most cursed team in baseball. Diaz could figure it out in Beantown, but considering his struggles, he might be a cheaper option than getting Kirby Yates or Ken Giles at this point.
Kirby Yates – San Diego Padres – RHP – 1.05 ERA, 1.10 FIP, 31 saves, 2.5 fWAR
Aug 1 team: San Diego Padres
Kirby Yates is having a phenomenal season for the San Diego Padres who, despite acquiring Manny Machado in the offseason and getting a rising superstar starter in rookie Chris Paddack, still find themselves in the basement of the NL West. That being said, I think the Padres could benefit from holding onto the 32-year-old right-hander for another season. They have a lot of talent on that roster, and I think they’re closer to contending than others might. Unless they’re getting Major League-ready talent, I’d hang onto Yates –– which is exactly what I think they’re going to do.
Ken Giles – Toronto Blue Jays – RHP – 1.59 ERA, 1.54 FIP, 14 saves, 1.5 fWAR
Aug 1 team: New York Yankees
This is the one package deal I see happening. The Yankees pony up a little extra in exchange for Marcus Stroman and Ken Giles. Giles might be remembered poorly by Yankees fans for punching himself in the face after giving up a costly home run to Gary Sanchez.
But let’s not forget he’s still a stud on the mound. He’s only allowed six earned runs in 34 innings this season and, when you remove his outings against the Red Sox, his season ERA is 0.65. He’s an animal, and Yankee fans should want him.
Daniel Hudson – Toronto Blue Jays – RHP – 2.80 ERA, 4.31 FIP, 0.3 fWAR
Aug. 1 team: Minnesota Twins
What is one thing you learned over this past series between the Twins and the Yankees? The Twins offense can keep up with anybody, but that bullpen can turtle with the best of them. While Hudson is by no means a superstar reliever, he would quickly become one of the more dependable ones in that Twins pen. Hudson emerged as a top trade target in his past handful of appearances, posting an ERA of 1.27 and 88.9 percent of runners left on base in 21.1 innings since May 26, which could buy him a spot on a contender this season after all.
Yasiel Puig – Cincinnati Reds – OF – .260/.310/.492, 22 home runs, 59 RBI, 1.1 fWAR
Aug. 1 team: Cleveland Indians
Puig saved his value since play began on June 7. Over his 154 plate appearances in that stretch, Puig is slashing .336/.390/.650 with 163 wRC+. Before that date, he was slashing .211/.256/.385 with just 60 wRC+ in 234 plate appearances. This hot stretch is exactly what the Indians seem to pounce on at the deadline every year in hopes to swing an upper-hand against any teams looking to usurp them in the standings. But what the Tribe needs the most, which is why Puig makes so much sense for them, are outfielders. Cleveland has greatly missed the impact of Michael Brantley’s departure, and now have the seventh-worst slugging percentage among MLB outfields (.422), as well as the seventh-worst RBI production from outfielders (167). Puig makes so much sense for them.
Jose Abreu – Chicago White Sox – 1B/DH – .269/.308/.490, 22 home runs, 72 RBI, 0.7 fWAR
Aug 1 team: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Angels are in an unfamiliar spot as we approach the deadline. They’re not accustomed to being in a position to buy at the deadline, at least since Mike Trout became a mainstay in that lineup. But here we are. The Angels have the sixth-lowest slugging percentage from first base in the MLB this season (.410), and adding Abreu’s .490 slugging would be a major upgrade to that team. The Angels have been a much better team since they’ve rallied behind each other during the grieving process after Tyler Skaggs’ tragic death, and they could see this as a great chance to show their team that they’re going for it this season: For Tyler.
Hunter Pence – Texas Rangers – OF/DH – .293/.348/.572, 131 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR
Aug. 1 team: Texas Rangers
Perhaps one of the best stories in baseball this season has been the resurrection of Hunter Pence. Over his past three seasons in San Francisco, Pence slashed .263/.319/.397 with just 92 wRC+ in 1,229 plate appearances. He has greatly outpaced each of those numbers in 244 plate appearances this year. Could it be a product of the thin air in Texas? Maybe. But we won’t find out until next season because I don’t see Texas being able to get a sufficient return given Pence being 36 years old.
Mike Minor – Texas Rangers – LHP – 3.00 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 2.7 fWAR
Aug. 1 team: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Another guy that could very much help an Angels team that’s going to need a miracle to pass Boston, Tampa, and one of Cleveland or Oakland just to make a one-game playoff. However, the Angels may feel it’s doable and go for it at the deadline. The Angels have the sixth-worst staff ERA in baseball this season at 5.28, thus making the need to trade for a starter within the division a must-happen. Minor would have the best ERA in that rotation and, given his ability to eat up innings this season, it could take a burden off of Angels bullpen that is middle of the pack at best this season.
Zack Greinke – Arizona Diamondbacks – RHP – 2.93 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 3.4 fWAR
Aug. 1 team: Philadelphia Phillies
Last it was reported, the Phillies were the only team to have preliminary talks with the Diamondbacks about Zack Greinke. While those talks never amounted to anything serious, I feel as though the Phillies are going to get desperate and wind up overspending for the 35-year-old right-hander. They desperately need consistency alongside Aaron Nola, and Matthew Boyd isn’t going to be enough. So it’s quite possible, in my opinion, that the Phillies pull the trigger on two of the top starters available this summer.
