The Boston Red Sox are taxed with the unthinkable of trying to compete in 2020 as well as shed salary.
It’s not impossible, but it’s certainly a difficult feat to ask rookie Chief Baseball Officer, Chaim Bloom, to orchestrate flawlessly. With questions looming about the future of Mookie Betts in Boston, a lot weighs on the offseason moves this winter. But the most important thing is getting under the luxury tax threshold of $208 million.
How can they do this?
Easy. Make smart use of their finances.
It’s going to be tough to unload the high-salary contracts of David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, and Chris Sale. But following the trade of Sandy Leon, the non-tendering of contracts to Josh Osich and Marco Hernandez, and the tendering of a contract to Jackie Bradley, Jr., the Red Sox have an estimated payroll of $214 million.
How can they get themselves under the $208 million threshold while competing in 2020?
The $11 million going to Jackie Bradley, Jr., a year removed from a significant regression in his defensive metrics, is a prime example of mismanaging finances. While FanGraphs values his 2019 season as worth $11.2 million, his production is something that can easily be replaced if Chaim Bloom and Brian O’Halloran look in the right places.
And they might not have to look any further than the free agency market, as Jarrod Dyson is coming off of a fantastic defensive season for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Offensively speaking, Dyson has never been an above-average performer in terms of wRC+ (95 is his career-best). But from a defensive standpoint, he ranks sixth among outfielders (min. 4,000 innings) with 80 defensive runs saved since 2014 –– a full 37 more than Jackie Bradley, Jr. in over 2,400 fewer innings played.
On top of that, Dyson had a higher walk rate than Bradley, on top of a lower strikeout-rate, and only was 0.1 wins above replacement worse despite 115 fewer plate appearances and 17 fewer games played.
The defect with Dyson, however, is his age. He’s 35 years old, and certainly closer to the end of his career than the beginning. While he may not have a lot of baseball left in him, he can thrive in the right situation.
At a price likely less than his $4 million in 2019, Dyson could be the perfect one-year bridge replacement for Jackie Bradley, Jr. and would buy the Red Sox time for Jarren Duran to develop into the everyday center-fielder in 2021.
The Red Sox are in dire need of making a final push for a Mookie Betts extension, enough to prioritize cutting salary ahead of the 2020 season. Trading Jackie Bradley, Jr. in a proverbial salary dump won’t solve everything, but it helps get them under the luxury tax and have a little bit of flexibility.
