Welcome fantasy football addicts! Hopefully, you are having a terrific Labor Day weekend. Football is in full swing and we are days away from the start of the season. That means, we still have some time for last-minute drafters. In this article, I’ll be breaking down some of my favorite ADP (average draft position) values, sleepers, and busts for the wide receiver position. Specifically, when looking at the players in the discussion, I’m talking about PPR redraft leagues.
Values
DJ Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars
Chark is being drafted way too low! I’m so bullish on him this season that I have him ranked ahead of guys like DJ Moore, Amari Cooper, and Odell Beckham Jr. Barring injury, I don’t think there’s a chance he doesn’t produce. The Jags defense projects to be awful and they don’t have a clear cut number two receiver. Rookie Laviska Shenault Jr. or Dede Westbrook could be the main secondary options, but Gardner Minshew displayed a willingness to target and connect with Chark last season. His receiver loves throwing to him, his team should be down many games and forced to air it out, and he’s one of the only team options. It all sets up for a 150-plus target season. Currently being drafted, on average, late in the fifth round, you can safely wait and get a heck of a value. Cue the baby shark song, it’s his year.
Jamison Crowder, New York Jets
Do the New York Jets have anyone else to throw the ball to? Do you trust Sam Darnold? No and no. We might not trust Darnold, but he’s at least capable of dumping the ball off and making short easy passes in the slot area of the field. Perfect for Crowder, who predominantly lines up in the slot (70 percent of snaps last year). The two showed chemistry together, as Crowder finished with 78 catches on 122 targets. Good enough for him to finish as WR26 in PPR formats. His pick 107 current ADP means he’s being drafted as WR42. He might not be a league winner, but he’s a safety valve in this Jets offense and he can be a safety valve in your lineups.
Sleepers
Preston Williams, Miami Dolphins
The longtime average targeted air yards darling DeVante Parker, finally broke through last season and proved his truthers right. With that said, Williams’ injuries actually played a huge role in Parker’s success. Not to mention, Parker outTAY-ed him with 14.3 average targeted air yards (otherwise known as TAY), compared to Parker’s 13.8. Both are good numbers and not far apart from one another, but it just goes to show you that Williams could have as much potential for big games as Parker. With Williams returning 100 percent healthy, expect him to take over as the team’s number one wide receiver. Needless to say, I’m out on Parker at his ADP and in on Williams at his.
Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers
If you ever hear me having a conversation with a Packers fan, I’ll say things like “the Packers have no receivers outside of Davante Adams.” While I believe that to be true from a proven commodity standpoint, I think there is someone who has the potential to produce outside of Adams. Aaron Rodgers might not have the same fire or eliteness attached to his name that he once had, but he’s still one of the best real-life quarterbacks in the game. When one of the best clamors over you and begs coaches for your services, you’re going to get opportunities. It’s as simple as that. That’s what Rodgers did toward the end of last season, and Lazard made some plays. Against man coverage, he caught 18-of-21 passes that were thrown his direction, had zero drops, and produced 13 first downs. He comes into the season as the team’s number two wideout, and you can bank on Adams getting more of the opposing defense’s attention. That’ll open the door for Lazard to have a real breakout.
Busts
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
Hopkins is one of the best in the game. However, this is a new team with plenty of weapons. Hopkins will get his and still have fantasy value, I just can’t buy him at his price. Also, we are all kind of speculating that this offense will become more vertical as opposed to their horizontal attack last season. The Cardinals ranked 26th in yards per completion (9.8) and 20th in yards per pass attempt (6.3). Christian Kirk and old man Larry Fitzgerald are still in the picture, so expect his volume to decrease, although the pace of play should be faster. If you can get him at a lower draft spot than his current No. 20 overall ADP, I’m all for it.
Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys
Cooper will be fine, and he’ll have some explosive games. However, the boom or bust nature of him, gives me pause at his price, especially given my current preferred roster construction. You don’t need someone who can put up 40 points one week and five points the next, at least not early on. Last season, Cooper had six games with less than 10 fantasy points, including five with less than seven points. He balanced that out by scoring 20 points or more in five contests. That’s a wide array of outcomes. The Cowboys added CeeDee Lamb this offseason and are expected to increase Blake Jarwin’s usage. Now, you’re talking about a complete mess when looking for consistency out of a high fantasy pick. I’m out on Cooper unless it’s a best ball league.
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