Welcome back to the next edition of my Labor Day fantasy football mini-series. This time, we’ll take a look at my favorite redraft PPR league ADP values, sleepers, and busts for the running back position. Hammering running backs early seems to be a favorite strategy of many this season. It’s a great strategy, however, only if they are the right ones. Let’s take a look at some that I like and some that I don’t. Please note: When I mention a player as a value or sleeper, it doesn’t mean I’m willing to reach multiple rounds to select them.
Values
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Todd Gurley is gone and the Rams feel they have found his replacement. Darrell Henderson Jr. went down with a hamstring strain and his Week 1 status is in question. Malcolm Brown should have a role in the offense, potentially, splitting carries with Akers. Brown has been named the starter, however, the cream should rise to the top, and I believe the better back is Akers. The Rams had other team needs and they chose to invest an important second-round pick on a running back. Bank on him to make the most of his opportunity and take over the workhorse role.
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
I’ve been pumping up the Monty hype all offseason long. There are so many things to like here. For starters, you want to put actual starting players into your starting fantasy lineup. Check. You want players who should get the bulk of the work. Check. You want players to improve and work hard at their craft during the offseason. Check. Check. Monty worked very hard – by all accounts and coaching reports – looked explosive, quick, and fleet of foot. He also cut four percent body fat and added strength. The groin injury is plummeting his ADP, and while fantasy owners are scared that it may linger throughout the season, I think his offseason work ethic proved that he’ll do what’s necessary to get himself into playing order. Buy him at his discounted price and hope for significant gains this season.
Sleepers
Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills
Is Moss being slept on? Absolutely so. He’s not flying completely under the radar or unnoticed, but he definitely has the potential to overtake Devin Singletary for the lead running back role in Buffalo. Joe Buscaglia, the Bills beat reporter for The Athletic, believes Moss could get a lot of the goal-line work, which would be just as valuable in standard or PPR leagues. It helps that he’s impressed with versatility as a pass-catcher even with his thicker frame. At his current ADP, playing on a team expected to be pretty good while getting treated like a typical handcuff or change of pace back, that’s a sleeper.
Chris Thompson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Sure, with the Leonard Fournette news, Thompson is gaining more traction. However, he’s still wildly unpredictable, given the unknown snaps and usage rates of the Jaguars’ backfield. Expect the Jags to be trailing a lot of games this season, setting up a lot of come from behind passing downs. Thompson is the designated pass-catching back to own on this roster. As it sits currently, Ryquell Armstead has a 128 overall ADP, compared to Thompson’s 130. Close in proximity, but give me the guy who could be more valuable, especially in PPR formats. Not to mention, Armstead has been placed on the reserve/COVID list for the second time this offseason.
Busts
Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos
Gordon is being drafted as if he’s guaranteed to see the bulk of the work out of the Broncos’ backfield. With Phillip Lindsay still in the mix, I’m not convinced. I believe it will be closer to a 50/50 split. Lindsay could also wind up getting more of the snaps if he continues the production we’ve seen from him the last two years. Gordon needs volume to be effective. Lindsay pumped out 197.7 PPR fantasy points last season on 259 touches. Gordon produced 180.8 points on 204 touches. The difference is, Gordon, rushed for only 3.8 yards per carry, compared to Lindsay’s 4.5. Gordon has also rushed for over 1,000 yards once in his five-year career, whereas Lindsay has done it each of his first two seasons. Buy Lindsay cheap, fade Gordon at his price.
Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons
For whatever reason, many fantasy players feel that Gurley will return to form in a new uniform. However, they are wrong. The Rams gave him a contract extension and then proceeded to cut him before he played a down under the extension. Obviously, they have some concerns about arthritis in his knee. The same knee of which he suffered a torn ACL during his junior season at Georgia. The volume should be there for him, but how much? Last season, he received 33 fewer carries than 2018 in one more game played. His efficiency also decreased, as he averaged over a full yard per carry less. If last season is the new Gurley, I’m out on him at his current ADP.
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