This season certainly hasn’t gone according to plan for the 2-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, one bright spot has been the development of third-year wide receiver Chris Godwin.
The former Penn State Nittany Lion has quickly established himself as more than just a breakout fantasy asset. He’s played like the best receiver in the NFL.
Heading into the eighth Sunday of the 2019 season, Godwin is tied for the most receiving touchdowns (six) with Adam Thielen, despite playing in one fewer game than the Viking receiver. Godwin’s 662 receiving yards are good for third behind Michael Thomas (763) and Stefon Diggs (706).
Godwin’s 110.3 receiving yards per game is tops in the NFL.
He’s shown remarkably consistent hands as well. His 43 receptions without a drop are the second-most in the NFL behind only Michael Thomas (53). It should also be noted that Godwin’s 15.4 yards per reception dwarf the 12.3 marks Thomas has posted thus far.
Perhaps even more remarkable, 38 of Godwin’s 43 receptions have resulted in a first down. This too is the best in the NFL, both in rate (88.4 percent), and in total (38). What makes that even more astounding is the fact that only one other player in the top-20 in first down reception percentage has at least 30 catches (Julio Jones). 11 have less than 20 catches.
Typically, more volume and deeper depth of target lead to less efficiency for pass catchers, but that has hardly been the case here.
Then there is analytics as well. This is where we can truly see the historical context of Godwin’s phenomenal start to the 2019 season.
He already has 340 Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) through six games. A measure of the value a player produces from where they caught the ball as compared to an average receiver. Second place? Michael Thomas at 218 (seven games).
So far, only 12 wide receivers have 122 DYAR or more this season. That is the gap between Godwin and second place. Astounding.
For reference, 340 would’ve been good for ninth place in the 2018 season and fifth in 2017. So, Godwin has produced more value on his catches through six games in 2019 than all but eight receivers did throughout the entire 2018 season. That number drops to just four for 2017.
Godwin’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) may, incredibly, be even more impressive. Where DYAR measures value by volume, DVOA rates players or entire units on a per-play basis. The percentage is essentially how much better, or worse, a player or unit performed compared to an average one with the same opportunities on a given play.
His current mark of 71.2 percent DVOA would be the highest ever recorded in a season if it were to hold breaking the record set by Tyler Lockett for wideouts with 66.3 percent in 2018. Typically, the league leader is ~30-35 percent in any given season so those marks are genuinely otherworldly.
Godwin also tops the Football Outsider’s leaderboard in catch rate at 80 percent. The highest of all qualifying receivers (min. 28 receptions).
So, to review, Chris Godwin is currently first in receiving touchdowns (tied), receiving yards per game, first down catches, first down reception rate, DYAR, DVOA, and catch rate (among qualifying receivers).
This seems like an impossible pace to maintain, and maybe it is. However, so far in 2019, Chris Godwin is the best wide receiver in the NFL.
