Just over a month after it first kicked off, the 2018 FIFA World Cup is down to its final two teams who will duke it out for the world’s most prestigious trophy— France and Croatia.
Both teams have followed long and dramatic roads to reach the final, but in the end, only one country can emerge victoriously. Will it be the perennial contenders and one time World Cup winners in France? Or will Croatia, the second smallest nation to ever reach the final, pull off their Cinderella story? Let’s break it down.
How did they get here?
France: 1st in Group C with a 2-1-0 record and wins against Argentina, Uruguay, and Belgium
France emerged from a relatively easy Group C with an unbeaten record after defeating Australia 2-1 and Peru 1-0. In the final group game, France also managed the only scoreless game of the 2018 World Cup when they drew 0-0 with Denmark. While they failed to lose a game, the highly touted French squad never truly lived up to their super team expectations in the first round, with no real standout performances.
That all changed when France met Argentina in the Round of 16 however, as they advanced over Lionel Messi and company with a 4-3 win. Kylian Mbappé lit up Argentina’s struggling defense and Benjamin Pavard scored what could be the goal of the tournament.
— FBL (@FOOTBALRLIFE) June 30, 2018
France followed up this wild victory with a 2-0 win over Uruguay in the Quarterfinals and a 1-0 win over Belgium in the Semifinals. Both games were relatively easy for France, as the squad appeared to have finally kicked into full gear for the knockout rounds.
Croatia: 1st in Group D with a 3-0-0 record and wins against Denmark, Russia, and England
While most had Croatia advancing out of the group of death that was Group D, not many had them in first place let alone winning all three games. Croatia dominated Nigeria with a 2-0 win in their first game before crushing Messi’s Argentina 3-0 in their second game which shocked the world. In their final group game, Croatia knocked off Iceland 2-1 to secure a perfect record and first place in the group.
After coasting through the group stages, things got a bit tougher for the Balkan nation, as all of their knockout round games went to extra time, including two games that went to penalties.
In the Round of 16, Croatia tied with Denmark 1-1 before winning 3-2 on penalties. This game got off to a wild start as Denmark scored in the opening minute and Croatia equalized in the fourth minute. In extra time, Denmark goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel saved a Luka Modric penalty to force penalty kicks. While both goalies excelled in the shootout, Croatia’s Danijel Subasic outclassed Schmeichel to advance.
Croatia next met tournament hosts Russia, who were fresh off a big-time penalty shootout upset of 2010 winners Spain. Much like the previous game, the game went to extra with both sides tied at one, but goals from Domagoj Vida for Croatia and Mário Fernandes for Russia forced yet another shootout. Subasic came up big yet again as Croatia won the shootout 4-3.
In the semifinal, Croatia overcame a fifth-minute Kieran Trippier free kick goal to beat England 2-1 in extra time thanks to goals from Ivan Perisic and Mario Mandzukic. Even when behind in a game, this Croatia team has shown perseverance and has been one of the best overall teams at this tournament.
How does each squad match up?
France entered the World Cup with one of the strongest yet most inexperienced squads they’ve ever fielded. The likes of Hugo Lloris, Samuel Umtiti, Paul Pogba, N’Golo Kante, Antione Griezmann, and Mbappé are some of the best players at their respective clubs, if not the world.
While Oliver Giroud has underperformed at the tournament so far, the likes of Mbappé, Griezmann, and Lloris have been on top form. Mbappé and Griezmann lead the team in goals with three each, while Lloris has been one of the best goalkeepers, at a tournament filled with quality goalkeepers, with 11 saves in five appearances.
France has an overall incredibly strong team with great depth on all sides of the field, which is what made them a heavy favorite to win the World Cup from the start.
Croatia, however, isn’t exactly a team full of unknowns. The team boasts some of the world’s best midfielders who play at some of the best club teams in the world. Real Madrid’s Modric leading the charge in the middle of the park, along with FC Barcelona’s Ivan Rakitic and Modric’s teammate Mateo Kovacic.
Juventus’s Mario Mandzukic leads the line for Croatia along with Ivan Perisic of Inter Milan, who share the lead for most goals on the team with Modric at two each. In defense, Dejan Lovren and Vida formed a formidable partnership ahead of their keeper Subasic, who has 12 saves at the tournament and much like Lloris, has been a standout performer in goal so far.
While Croatia’s squad pales in strength to France’s, it is still filled with some of the world’s most underrated players at each position, and it is no surprise they’ve gotten this far in the tournament.
What does each team need to do to win?
France certainly has the advantage going into this game, but both sides are extremely capable of taking the World Cup this year.
If France wants to win the World Cup, they need to score multiple goals quickly and play a consistent game throughout. While scoring multiple goals may seem like a no-brainer, it’s a necessity if France wants to beat this scrappy Croatia team.
Croatia excels at overcoming one-goal deficits through their playing style, which utilizes their unique amount of stamina to wear down teams and force mistakes. In all of their knockout round games, this Croatia team has trailed by one goal for at least a portion of the game but have been able to outrun the other team and draw level. Modric leads all players at the World Cup in miles ran during games with 39.1 miles, just to put Croatia’s work rate into perspective.
Luka Modric never stops. ?? pic.twitter.com/lJbwBmjFzT
— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) July 12, 2018
A big narrative going into their semifinal with England was that the Croatia team would be fatigued from playing back to back extra time games, but this was far from the case. Croatia was the fitter team and was able to wear down the England squad which forced a mistake in extra time to give them the win.
If France can get a multi-goal lead early on this game, they would truly force Croatia out of their comfort zone and could begin to run away with the game. France has some of the world’s best attackers, and while Croatia’s defense has been great so far, Lovren and Vida are far from the greatest defenders in the world. If France can exploit and expose these two defenders, it’s safe to assume France will lift their second World Cup trophy.
For the Croatian squad, they only need to continue to play their game. All of the pressure is on France to win the game, so even if they go behind one goal, all Croatia needs to do is to continue to play their style. If the game does manage to go to extra time, Croatia will have the advantage as their stamina is unmatched at the tournament this year.
While France’s attack will be a handful for the Croatian defense, France’s defense is easily exploitable. While Umtiti and Raphaël Varane are solid defenders, Pavard is still relatively inexperienced, and all three of them were exposed in the semifinal against Belgium.
If France can run up the score early on Croatia, then expect them to run away with the game. But if Croatia can stay in the game and even force an extra time period, the World Cup could be heading to the Balkans.
Overall, this World Cup has been one of the most exciting World Cups in recent memory, and this final will not disappoint. With one soccer powerhouse looking to avenge their 2006 World Cup disappointment and prove why they are the one strongest soccer countries in the world, to a small country ravaged by a history of war and displacement with a population double that of Paris with something to prove, this is one game you won’t want to miss—whether you like soccer or not.
