The best part about fantasy football is winning. The second best part is the draft. However, the draft has come and gone. Now fantasy owners struggle with the weekly decision about which players to start, which to sit, and which to use as a sleeper. To help with that, I will provide two starts, two sits, and two sleepers at each position every week. Be sure to reach out with any fantasy football questions you may have. Without further ado, let’s get started.
All stats are based on four-point per passing touchdown and PPR scoring.
Quarterbacks
START: Joe Burrow at Las Vegas Raiders
The last time we saw Burrow, he had his worst performance of the season. He finished Week 9 with only 7.4 fantasy points against the Cleveland Browns. It was the first game this season that Burrow didn’t throw a touchdown pass. However, he averaged 2.5 touchdowns per game over the previous eight weeks, throwing at least two touchdowns every game. Tomorrow afternoon, Burrow takes on a Raiders defense that has struggled recently. Over their past four games, the Raiders have given up an average of 2.8 passing touchdowns and 21.5 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Furthermore, they looked like a high school squad against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs last week. Coming off the bye week, Burrow the Bengals should come out with a bang against the Raiders.
START: Tua Tagovailoa at New York Jets
A week ago Thursday, Tua came off the bench and replaced an injured Jacoby Brissett. He led the Miami Dolphins to a 22-10 upset victory over the Baltimore Ravens. On 32 snaps, Tua finished with 12.3 fantasy points after throwing for 158 yards on only 13 pass attempts. In his previous three starts, Tua averaged two passing touchdowns and 21 fantasy points per game. This week Tua will face a Jets defense that has been killed by quarterbacks recently. Over their past five games, the Jets have given up an average of 22.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, giving up at least 20.9 fantasy points in every contest. Assuming he is healthy, Tua has top-10 upside this week against a struggling Jets defense.
SIT: Carson Wentz at Buffalo Bills
Before last week’s game, Wentz had six straight performances with at least two passing touchdowns and 17 fantasy points. However, Wentz had a season-low 7.1 fantasy points last week as he threw for only 180 passing yards. Things don’t get better this week as he faces arguably the best defense in football. The Bills have held quarterbacks to only 10.7 fantasy points per game this season, the lowest in the NFL. They have given up only six passing touchdowns this season, including just one over their past four games. Furthermore, the Bills have held quarterbacks to under 13 fantasy points in 67 percent of their games this season. After a hot streak, Wentz belongs on the waiver wire.
SIT: Taylor Heinicke at Carolina Panthers
While the Washington Football Team pulled off an upset victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, Heinicke finished with only 15.7 fantasy points. It marked the fourth time in the past five games that he scored under 16 fantasy points. Furthermore, Heinicke scored under 12 fantasy points in three of those five games. Unfortunately for Heinicke, he has a tough matchup tomorrow. The Panthers have held quarterbacks to only 14.9 fantasy points per game this season, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. Over the past four weeks, the Panthers have held quarterbacks to only 7.8 fantasy points per game. During that span, they kept quarterbacks under 150 passing yards in three of those contests. With only two teams on a bye this week, fantasy owners have no reason to start Heinicke.
SLEEPER: Ryan Tannehill vs Houston Texans
After a breakout 2020 season, many expect Tannehill to have a great 2021 season. Unfortunately, the Tennessee Titans quarterback has scored under 15 fantasy points in 60 percent of the games this season. However, Tannehill has scored 18.5 or more fantasy points in two of the past three weeks, scoring seven total touchdowns in those games. This week Tannehill has a chance to continue his recent hot streak against the Texans. They have allowed quarterbacks to average 19.1 fantasy points per game this season. The Texans have also given up two or more passing touchdowns in 67 percent of their games this season, including three of the past four contests. Given the matchup, Tannehill has top-five upside this week.
SLEEPER: Justin Fields vs Baltimore Ravens
Despite the Chicago Bears losing four games in a row, fans have to feel good about their quarterback. The last time we saw Fields, he finished with a career-high 291 passing yards and 18.1 fantasy points against a tough Pittsburgh Steelers defense. More importantly, it was the second week in a row that Fields finished as a top-10 quarterback. Meanwhile, this Baltimore defense isn’t the same unit it has been in the past. The Ravens have allowed quarterbacks to average 18.9 fantasy points per game this season. Over their past five games, the Ravens have given up at least 19 fantasy points to quarterbacks in four of them. Fields has played great in the past two games and will keep the hot streak going tomorrow.
Running Backs
START: Mark Ingram at Philadelphia Eagles
With Alvin Kamara out for this game because of the knee injury, Ingram has top-10 upside this week. Since joining the Saints, Ingram has averaged 11 touches and 9.3 fantasy points per game with Kamara in the lineup. By comparison, Ingram had 18 touches and 20.8 fantasy points last week without Kamara. Meanwhile, the Eagles have given up 27.3 fantasy points per game to running backs this season. They have given up six rushing touchdowns over their past five games, giving up 27.7 fantasy points per game during that span. The Saints lack consistent threats in the passing game, which will force them to lean on Ingram even more in this game.
START: Myles Gaskin at New York Jets
No player has been more inconsistent this season than Gaskin. In odd weeks, Gaskin has averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game. By comparison, he has averaged 5.3 fantasy points per game in even weeks. While that argument shouldn’t be why you start Gaskin this week, the matchup is the reason. The Jets have given up the most fantasy points to running backs this season. They have given up 39.1 fantasy points per game to the position, 15.7 fantasy points more than the league average. Furthermore, the Jets have given up 14 touchdowns and 47 fantasy points per game to running backs over the past month. If you still have Gaskin on your roster, tomorrow is the week to start him.
SIT: Miles Sanders vs New Orleans Saints
Reportedly the Eagles will active Sander off injured reserve later today, making him eligible to play tomorrow. Even if he is, fantasy owners should avoid starting Sanders if possible. The Saints have held running backs to only 18.7 fantasy points per game this season, the third-fewest in the NFL. They have also held running backs to only six total touchdowns this season. Furthermore, the Saints have held running backs to only 16.4 fantasy points and one touchdown over the past month, the second-fewest in the NFL. Even if Sanders is out another week, fantasy owners would be wise to avoid Jordan Howard and any other Philadelphia running back.
SIT: Zach Moss vs Indianapolis Colts
After starting the season strong, Moss has regressed recently. Over the first four games, Moss averaged one touchdown and 14.5 fantasy points per game. By comparison, he has averaged only 7.7 fantasy points per game and scored one touchdown in his past four games, scoring under nine fantasy points in three of those contests. More importantly, Moss has finished with fewer than 11 touches in three of the past games. This week, fantasy owners need to put Moss on the bench as he takes on a tough Colts run defense. They have held running backs to only 18.7 fantasy points per game this season, the second-fewest in the NFL. Between the matchup this week and limited role on offense, Moss is a risky flex option at best.
SLEEPER: Kenyan Drake vs Cincinnati Bengals
Since the Raiders changed head coaches, Drake has turned into a solid fantasy asset. Over the past four games, Drake has averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game, scoring 16 or more fantasy points in three of them. Furthermore, Drake averaged 11 touches and 18.1 fantasy points per game in the first three games with the new head coach before last week’s matchup with the Chiefs. This week, he faces a Bengals defense that has gotten killed by running backs lately. Over their past two games, the Bengals have given 248 rushing yards, three touchdowns, and 87.2 fantasy points to running backs. Fantasy owners can start Josh Jacobs and Drake this week with confidence.
SLEEPER: D’Onta Foreman vs Houston Texans
Tomorrow the Titans will be without Jeremy McNichols, making it a two-headed backfield between Foreman and Adrian Peterson. Last week, Foreman led the backfield in touches (13), fantasy points (9.8), and snaps played (21) against the Saints. More importantly, Foreman saw eight more touches last week than he did in his first game as a Titan. By comparison, Peterson had an 18 percent decrease in touches from last week compared to his first game with the team. Meanwhile, the Texans have given up an average of 25.1 fantasy points per game to running backs this season. They have given up at least one rushing touchdown in all but one game this season, including six straight games. For those who need an injury replacement this week, Foreman is an excellent option.
Wide Receivers
START: Brandin Cooks at Tennessee Titans
In Week 9, Tyrod Taylor returned from a hamstring injury that had kept him out for several weeks. Cooks finished that Week 9 game with a season-high 14 targets against the Dolphins. Cooks has averaged 10 targets and 14.2 fantasy points per game over the past four games. More importantly, he has averaged 11.7 targets and 17.5 fantasy points per game with Taylor under center compared to 8.2 targets and 13.5 fantasy points with Davis Mills starting. Tomorrow Cooks faces the Titans, who have given up 46.1 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season, the most in the NFL. They have given up 11.9 fantasy points per game more than the league average to wide receivers. Cooks has top-10 upside this week against a terrible Tennessee secondary.
START: DeVonta Smith vs New Orleans Saints
Smith has been a popular buy-low candidate over the past month. However, that window closes tomorrow. After a tough stretch, Smith has scored 22.6 fantasy points in back-to-back games. In those contests, he has caught nine of 12 targets for 182 receiving yards and three touchdowns. More importantly, Smith’s 6.8 targets per game, 2.9 higher than anyone else on the team this season. Tomorrow, Smith takes on a Saints defense that has struggled to slow down wide receivers lately. Since their Week 6 bye, they have given up an average of 182.5 receiving yards, 1.5 receiving touchdowns, and 39.4 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. As the primary passing threat on the Eagles, Smith has top-15 upside this week.
SIT: Michael Pittman at Buffalo Bills
After averaging 8.6 targets per game over the first five games this season, Pittman has averaged 6.6 targets per game over the past five games. Furthermore, he had at least seven targets in four of the first five games this season. By comparison, Pittman had more than seven targets only once over the past five weeks. More importantly, Pittman will face his most difficult challenge of the season tomorrow. The Bills have held wide receivers to only 26.8 fantasy points per game this season, the fewest in the NFL. They have also given up only three receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, the fewest in the NFL this season. With Tre’Davious White across from him, Pittman will have a quiet performance against the Bills.
SIT: Chase Claypool at Los Angeles Chargers
Last week Claypool missed the overtime tie against the Detroit Lions with a toe injury. However, he is off the injury report and will play tomorrow night. Yet, Claypool belongs on the bench this week, regardless of whether Ben Roethlisberger or Mason Rudolph start at quarterback. He has scored under 10.5 fantasy points in three straight games, averaging only 1.2 fantasy points per target in those contests. Meanwhile, the Chargers have held wide receivers to only 26.9 fantasy points per game this season, the second-fewest in the NFL. The Chargers have given up only four receiving touchdowns this season to wide receivers, including only one over their past four games. Between his recent struggles and the matchup this week, Claypool belongs on the bench, if not the waiver wire.
SLEEPER: Elijah Moore vs Miami Dolphins
Over the past three weeks, Moore has averaged 6.7 targets and 18 fantasy points per game. He has been the WR7, ahead of wide receivers like Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown during that span. More importantly, Moore has scored at least 13 fantasy points in each of those games, including last week, despite the return of Corey Davis. Tomorrow, Moore faces a Dolphins defense that has been very fantasy-friendly to wide receivers this season. They have given up an average of 41.3 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the third-most in the NFL. Over the past six weeks, the Dolphins have given up an average of 1.5 receiving touchdowns and 46.3 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Don’t let Joe Flacco scare you off; put Moore in your lineup.
SLEEPER: Rashod Bateman at Chicago Bears
While he missed the first five games with an injury, Bateman has averaged seven targets and 10.5 fantasy points per game this season. Over the past three games, Bateman has averaged 4.7 catches on 7.3 targets for 70.7 receiving yards and 11.7 fantasy points per game, scoring at least 10 fantasy points in every contest. More importantly, Bateman had the best performance of his career last week, scoring 14 fantasy points despite the return of Sammy Watkins. This week Bateman takes on a Bears defense that has struggled to slow down wide receivers. Over the past four weeks, they have allowed wide receivers to average 43.2 fantasy points per game, fourth-most in the NFL. This week, both Marquise Brown and Bateman are top-24 wide receivers.
Tight Ends
START: Pat Freiermuth at Los Angeles Chargers
A week from now, Freiermuth should be own in over 80 percent of fantasy leagues. Since JuJu Smith-Schuster suffered a season-ending shoulder injury, Freiermuth has averaged 5.3 catches on 7.3 targets and 13.7 fantasy points per game. During that span, Freiermuth has scored at least 12.5 fantasy points in three of those four contests. More importantly, he had a career-high nine targets last week against the Lions. Meanwhile, the Chargers have given up an average of 16.5 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. They have given up 18.5 or more fantasy points in five of their past seven games. Last week the Chargers gave up two touchdowns to Tyler Conklin. Expect Freiermuth to have the best game of his career on Sunday night.
START: Tyler Conklin vs Green Bay Packers
Last week Conklin made the streamers list and finished with 16.1 fantasy points against the Chargers. He ended the week as a top-four tight end after scoring two touchdowns. However, he has been a consistent streaming option for fantasy owners this season. Over the past four games, Conklin has averaged four catches on six targets and 11.6 fantasy points per game, scoring at least 9.5 fantasy points in every contest. This week Conklin faces a Packers defense that has been shredded by tight ends this season, giving up 13.7 fantasy points per game to the position. Over the past two weeks, the Packers have given up an average of 18.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends. Conklin should have no trouble keeping up his recent play against the Packers.
SIT: Dallas Goedert vs New Orleans Saints
After clearing the concussion protocol on Friday, Goedert is off the injury report and ready to start tomorrow for the Eagles. However, fantasy owners should consider benching him for a streaming tight end this week. Over his past five games, Goedert has averaged only 4.6 targets and 8.4 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he has scored under 7.5 fantasy points in over half the games this season. Unfortunately for him, things don’t get better this week against the Saints. They have held tight ends to only 9.7 fantasy points per game this season, the eighth-fewest in the NFL. Furthermore, the Saints have given up only one touchdown to tight ends this season. If possible, fantasy owners should consider a tight end on the waiver wire this week instead.
SIT: Dan Arnold vs San Francisco 49ers
Over the past three weeks, Arnold has been the TE3, averaging 8.3 targets and 12.8 fantasy points per game. During that span, Arnold has scored at least 10 fantasy points in every contest. However, his recent hot streak comes to an end tomorrow. The 49ers have held tight ends to only 9.9 fantasy points per game this season, 2.2 fantasy points fewer than the league average. They have also held tight ends to under seven fantasy points in five of their past eight games. The San Francisco defense has played well over the past few weeks. Last week they were very dominant, getting pressure on Matthew Stafford all game long. Expect the 49ers to make Trevor Lawrence’s life miserable tomorrow, leading to a poor fantasy performance from Arnold.
SLEEPER: Cole Kmet vs Baltimore Ravens
The second-year tight end has picked up his play recently. Over the past three games, Kmet has averaged 6.7 targets and 9.8 fantasy points per game, finishing as the TE10 during those weeks. The last time we saw him, Kmet had a season-high six catches for 87 receiving yards and 14.7 fantasy points against a tough Steelers defense. This week, Kmet and the Bears have a great matchup against a struggling Baltimore defense. The Ravens have given up 17.5 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, the third-most in the NFL. They have given up six touchdowns to tight ends this season, the second-most in the league. With Allen Robinson likely out this week, expect Fields to lean on Kmet even more than usual.
SLEEPER: Adam Trautman at Philadelphia Eagles
Trautman was a popular preseason sleeper candidate. Unfortunately, he is the TE38 for the year, averaging only 4.5 fantasy points per game. However, Trautman has averaged 6.5 targets and 8.5 fantasy points per game over the past two weeks. More importantly, Trautman has led the team in targets over the past three weeks, seeing at least six targets in every contest. Meanwhile, the Eagles have given up an average of 19.8 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, the most in the NFL. Over the past month, the Eagles have given up 24 fantasy points per game to tight ends, 4.7 fantasy points per game more than any other team. Fantasy owners in deeper leagues who need a bye week filler should add Trautman off the waiver wire.
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