The best part about fantasy football is winning. The second best part is the draft. However, the draft has come and gone. Now fantasy owners struggle with the weekly decision about which players to start, which to sit, and which to use as a sleeper. To help with that, I will provide two starts, two sits, and two sleepers at each position every week. Be sure to reach out with any fantasy football questions you may have. Without further ado, let’s get started.
All stats are base on four-point per passing touchdown and PPR scoring.
Quarterbacks
START: Derek Carr vs Kansas City Chiefs
While he struggled last week against the New York Giants, Carr had scored 19 or more fantasy points in his previous two games and over half the games this season. He has also thrown for at least 295 passing yards in all but two games this season, including three straight. While the Chiefs have held quarterbacks to only 16.5 fantasy points in three of their past four games, they faced Daniel Jones, Taylor Heinicke, and Jordan Love during those games. In the other six games this season, the Chiefs have given up an average of 26.6 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. In a critical AFC West matchup, expect a big performance from Carr.
START: Carson Wentz vs Jacksonville Jaguars
After a slow start to the season, Wentz has picked up his play. Since Week 4, Wentz has been the QB7, averaging 20.4 fantasy points per game. He has thrown at least two touchdowns in each of those games, including three total touchdowns in three straight games. More importantly, Wentz has scored at least 17 fantasy points in all but one game this season. Despite holding Josh Allen to only 9.6 fantasy points last week, the Jaguars are still a defense to play your quarterbacks against. They have given up an average of 19.3 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, giving up 21 or more fantasy points in over half the matchups. Wentz will have no trouble picking apart this defense tomorrow.
SIT: Ryan Tannehill vs New Orleans Saints
Unfortunately, Tannehill hasn’t played this season like he did last season. He has only 11 passing touchdowns this season after throwing 33 in 2020. More importantly, Tannehill has struggled against everyone but the Indianapolis Colts this season. In the two games against the Colts, Tannehill had six passing touchdowns and scored 21.4 fantasy points. By comparison, Tannehill has thrown five touchdowns and scored 15.4 fantasy points per game in the other seven games this season. Meanwhile, the Saints have held quarterbacks to only 16.9 fantasy points per game this season, giving up under 12 fantasy points in half of the games. Even in the Tennessee Titans’ impressive win last week, Tannehill only scored 14 fantasy points. He should have a similar performance this week.
SIT: Jimmy Garoppolo vs Los Angeles Rams
Over the past two weeks, Garoppolo has averaged 23.3 fantasy points per game, scoring 19.3 or more in both contests. However, he has averaged only 12.6 fantasy points per game in the other five games this season, scoring more than 15 fantasy points only once. Unfortunately, Garoppolo’s hot streak over the past two weeks will end on Monday night. The Rams have held quarterbacks to only 16.4 fantasy points per game this season, the seventh-fewest in the NFL. They have also held quarterbacks to under two passing touchdowns in 67 percent of their games this season. More importantly, quarterbacks have averaged only 12.4 fantasy points per game over the past month against the Rams. Expect Garoppolo to have an ugly fantasy performance on Monday.
SLEEPER: Matt Ryan at Dallas Cowboys
Since Week 4, Ryan has averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game, finishing as the QB11 during that span despite his bye week. More importantly, Ryan has scored at least 17.4 fantasy points in four of the past five games, including 28 or more twice. Last week, Ryan threw for a season-high 343 passing yards and scored 28.5 fantasy points against the Saints. This week he faces a Dallas defense that made Teddy Bridgewater look like John Elway in Week 9. The Cowboys allowed Bridgewater to score a season-high 21.9 fantasy points last week, giving up 249 passing yards and two total touchdowns to the quarterback. Ryan has top-10 upside this week against a struggling Dallas defense.
SLEEPER: Teddy Bridgewater vs Philadelphia Eagles
Bridgewater scored a season-high 21.9 fantasy points and had two total touchdowns against the Cowboys despite throwing only 28 passes. In the contests with two or more total touchdowns this season, Bridgewater has averaged 19 fantasy points per game, scoring 20.5 or more in 50 percent of those matchups. That’s excellent news for Bridgewater’s fantasy owners, as the Eagles have struggled to keep quarterbacks out of the end zone this season. They have given up two or more total touchdowns to quarterbacks in 67 percent of their games this season, including three of the past four games. In those matchups, the Eagles have given up an average of 23.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Expect Bridgewater to keep up his hot play this week against the Eagles.
Running Backs
START: Melvin Gordon vs Philadelphia Eagles
While everyone is waiting for the Javonte Williams breakout game, Gordon continues to be a reliable fantasy player. He is the RB15 on the season, averaging 13.1 fantasy points per game. Over the past two weeks, Gordon has averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game, scoring at least 17.5 in both contests. Fantasy owners should expect Gordon’s hot streak to continue tomorrow, as the Eagles have been awful at stopping running backs this season. They have given up 28.5 fantasy points per game to running backs this season, the fourth-most in the NFL. Furthermore, the Eagles have given up five rushing touchdowns to running backs over the past month. The Denver Broncos found success in the running game last week. They will do the same tomorrow against a struggling Philadelphia defense.
START: D’Ernest Johnson at New England Patriots
Unfortunately for the Cleveland Browns, Nick Chubb won’t play tomorrow as he is on the Covid-19 list. With Kareem Hunt not ready to return from a calf injury and Demetric Felton on the Covid-19 list, Johnson will have a featured workload in this game. The last time he had a featured workload, Johnson finished with 24 touches for 168 scrimmage yards, a touchdown, and a career-high 24.8 fantasy points. Meanwhile, the Patriots have given up 24.6 fantasy points per game to running backs this season, a tad over the league average. However, they have given up over 100 rushing yards to running backs in over half their games this season. With Chubb and Hunt out of the lineup, Johnson will have a massive fantasy performance in this game.
SIT: Adrian Peterson vs New Orleans Saints
In his first game as a Titan, Peterson finished with 9.6 fantasy points on 11 touches. However, if not for a late-game touchdown, Peterson would have ended the game with only 3.6 fantasy points after averaging 2.1 yards per carry. While fantasy owners should have hope for Peterson moving forward, he belongs on the bench this week. The Saints have held running backs to only 19.2 fantasy points per game this season, the fifth-fewest in the NFL. More importantly, they have given up only five fantasy points per game to running backs on the ground since Week 7. With a limited role in the passing game, Peterson will have a quiet performance this week. The only Titans running back fantasy owners should start this week is Jeremy McNichols.
SIT: Jordan Howard at Denver Broncos
After spending most of the season on the practice squad, Howard has averaged 14.5 carries over the past two weeks. Thanks to three rushing touchdowns, he has averaged 15.4 fantasy points per game during that span. However, Howard has played a secondary role to Boston Scott since Miles Sanders went down with an injury. Over the past two weeks, Scott has played 44.3 percent of the snaps compared to 32 percent for Howard. Meanwhile, the Broncos have held running backs to only 21.2 fantasy points per game this season. More importantly, they have held running backs to only five rushing touchdowns this season, giving up only one in their past three games. Between the limited snaps and the matchup this week, fantasy owners should leave Howard on the bench.
SLEEPER: AJ Dillon vs Seattle Seahawks
Last week Dillon made the sleepers list and finished with a team-high 13 fantasy points. He had 90 scrimmage yards on only 12 touches, averaging 7.5 yards per touch against the Chiefs. While the Green Bay Packers should have Aaron Rodgers for this game, they should continue to include Dillon in the game plan. This season, the Seahawks have struggled to slow down running backs. They have given up 29.8 fantasy points per game to the position. Seattle has also given up at least 26 fantasy points to running backs in three of the past four games. For those who need a safe floor flex option this week, Dillon is an excellent option.
SLEEPER: J.D. McKissic vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over the past four games, McKissic has led the Washington Football Team backfield in snaps played with 148. He has played 37 snaps per game, while Antonio Gibson has played only 30.8 snaps per game during that span. More importantly, McKissic has averaged 15.3 fantasy points per game over the past three games, compared to Gibson, who has scored a total of 20.4 fantasy points in those games. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have held running backs to only 22 fantasy points per game this season, the 10th fewest in the NFL. However, they have given up the sixth-most catches to running backs, giving up 7.4 catches per game. With Washington chasing points tomorrow, McKissic should rack up the catches and the PPR fantasy points.
Wide Receivers
START: Mike Williams vs Minnesota Vikings
After scoring 22 or more fantasy points in four of his first five games, Williams has scored a total of 16.4 fantasy points over the past three games. During that span, Williams has averaged only five targets per game after averaging 10.2 targets per game over the first five weeks of the season. However, Williams has faced three talented secondaries in the past three games but will turn things around tomorrow. The Vikings have given up an average of over 40 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. Furthermore, the Vikings have given up an average of 17 catches for 250.5 receiving yards, 1.5 receiving yards, and 51.8 fantasy points per game since their bye week. This game should be a high-scoring contest, leading to plenty of fantasy points for Williams.
START: Terry McLaurin vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Much like Williams, McLaurin got off to a hot start this season but has recently struggled. He averaged 19.6 fantasy points per game over the first four weeks of the season. Since then, McLaurin has averaged only 11.8 fantasy points per game, scoring under nine fantasy points in three of the four games. However, McLaurin has averaged 9.5 targets per game this season, finishing with seven or more in every game since Week 1. Tomorrow, he has a great matchup against the Buccaneers. They have given up an average of 37.1 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season, giving up eight touchdowns to the position. With Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas likely out for this game, McLaurin might see a season-high in targets.
SIT: Courtland Sutton vs Philadelphia Eagles
Since Jerry Jeudy has returned from an ankle injury, Sutton has received only six targets. In those two games, Sutton has three catches for 49 receiving yards and a total of 9.9 fantasy points. Furthermore, in the three games with Jeudy this season, Sutton has averaged only 4.1 fantasy points per game. By comparison, Sutton has averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game this season with Jeudy on the sidelines. Unfortunately for Sutton, things don’t get better tomorrow. The Eagles have held wide receivers to only 29.3 fantasy points per game this season, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. Last week they held Williams to only 7.8 fantasy points. Until he proves he can produce with Jeudy in the lineup, Sutton belongs on the bench.
SIT: Elijah Moore vs Buffalo Bills
Last week, Moore had his best game as a pro with 27.4 fantasy points. He finished the game with seven catches on eight targets for 84 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Over the past two games, Moore has averaged 6.5 catches on seven targets for 75.5 receiving yards and 20.3 fantasy points per game without Corey Davis in the lineup. However, Davis should play this week, and the Jets face a very dominant Bills defense. They have held wide receivers to only 25.4 fantasy points per game this season, the fewest in the NFL. The Bills have also given up only one receiving touchdown to wide receivers since Week 1. Expect the Bills to get pressure on Mike White tomorrow, limiting his ability to get Moore the ball.
SLEEPER: Russell Gage at Dallas Cowboys
With Calvin Ridley away from the team to focus on his mental health (and everyone wishes him the best), Gage has stepped up as the No. 1 wide receiver for the Atlanta Falcons. Last week, Gage caught seven of his eight targets for 64 receiving yards and finished with 13.4 fantasy points. It was the second time in the past three weeks that Gage had at least six targets, 60 receiving yards, and 13 fantasy points. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have given up an average of 39.2 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. The Cowboys will score at will on a struggling Falcons defense, forcing the Falcons to chase points. Expect Gage to see double-digit targets tomorrow for the first time this season.
SLEEPER: Jamal Agnew at Indianapolis Colts
Agnew spent the early part of his NFL career as a defensive back while returning kicks. However, he has recently turned into Trevor Lawrence’s go-to weapon. Since Week 5, Agnew leads the team in targets with 30, averaging 7.5 per game. Agnew has averaged 11.6 fantasy points per game during that span, scoring 10.9 or more fantasy points in three of the past four games. Meanwhile, the Colts have given up an average of 41.1 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season, the fifth-most in the NFL. They have given up a league-high 15 touchdowns to wide receivers, giving up two or more in 67 percent of their games this season. Expect Agnew to have his best game of the season tomorrow.
Tight Ends
START: Noah Fant vs Philadelphia Eagles
After missing last week’s game on the Covid-19 list, Fant will start tomorrow against the Eagles. Despite missing last week’s game, Fant has averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game, good for the TE9 on the season. He has seen an average of 7.3 targets per game over his past three matchups, finishing with 10 or more targets twice this season. Tomorrow, he faces an Eagles defense that has been destroyed by tight ends this season, giving up over 19 fantasy points per game to the position. More importantly, they gave up 11 catches for 126 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and 37.6 fantasy points to the Los Angeles Chargers tight ends last week. Fant has a great matchup and has the upside to finish the week as a top-three tight end.
START: Pat Freiermuth vs Detroit Lions
While Kyle Pitts has earned the hype surrounding him, he isn’t the only rookie tight end putting on a show this season. Over the past month, Freiermuth has been the TE2 on a points per game basis, averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game. Since JuJu Smith-Schuster suffered a season-ending shoulder injury, Freiermuth had at least six targets and 12.8 fantasy points in every game. Tomorrow he faces a Detroit defense that has given up an average of 11.7 fantasy points per game to tight ends over the past three weeks. More importantly, the Steelers likely won’t have Chase Claypool for this game, opening up more targets for Freiermuth. Until Freiermuth proves otherwise, he is a weekly must-start for fantasy owners.
SIT: Dallas Goedert at Denver Broncos
Goedert has averaged 10.1 fantasy points per game this season. However, the Eagles have recently found a new love for running the ball. Over the past two weeks, they have thrown a total of 33 pass attempts. By comparison, they averaged 34.6 passing attempts per game over the first seven weeks of the season. Unfortunately for Goedert, tomorrow’s matchup is far from promising. The Broncos have held tight ends to only eight fantasy points per game this season, the third-fewest in the NFL. They are also only one of three teams not to surrender a touchdown to the tight end position this season. Between the new run-heavy offense and the matchup, Goedert will struggle to score fantasy points this week.
SIT: Jared Cook vs Minnesota Vikings
In his first season with the Chargers, Cook has been very inconsistent. He has scored under six fantasy points in half of the games this season. By comparison, Cook has averaged 13.2 fantasy points per game in the other half of the games this season, scoring at least 10.5 in every contest. However, Cook faces a Vikings team tomorrow that hasn’t given up a touchdown to tight ends this season. The Vikings have held tight ends only 8.7 fantasy points per game this season, including under 7.5 fantasy points in four of their past five games. Last week the Vikings held Mark Andrews to only 9.4 fantasy points. Those fantasy owners who need a streaming option this week should avoid Cook.
SLEEPER: Tyler Conklin at Los Angeles Chargers
Last week Conklin made the streamers list and finished with 9.5 fantasy points. It was the second game in a row he finished with five catches on seven targets for at least 9.5 fantasy points. More importantly, Conklin had at least five targets in each of the past three games, averaging 10.1 fantasy points per game during that span. Despite the Eagles only throwing the ball 17 times last week, Goedert had a 35.3 percent target share and finished with 7.3 fantasy points on only three catches. Even with the low-scoring finish by Goedert, the Chargers have still given up 16.3 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. Conklin should have his fourth straight game with at least five targets and 9.5 fantasy points tomorrow.
SLEEPER: Dan Arnold at Indianapolis Colts
Much like Conklin, Arnold made the streamers list last week and finished with 10 fantasy points against a tough Bills defense. Arnold led all Jaguar players with 10 fantasy points, catching four of his team-high seven targets for 60 receiving yards. It is the third time in the past four games where Arnold has finished with at least seven targets and 10 or more fantasy points. Meanwhile, the Colts gave up 18.6 fantasy points to Ryan Griffin and Tyler Kroft last week. They have given up 16.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, including 16.5 or more in over half of their games. Expect Arnold to keep up his recent hot streak this week against the Colts in a critical divisional matchup.
Check us out on our socials:
Twitter: @PTSTNews and @TalkPrimeTime
Facebook Page: Prime Time Sports Talk
Join our Facebook Group: Prime Time Sports Talk
Instagram: @primetimesportstalk
Follow Mike Fanelli on Twitter @Mike_NFL2
Main Image Credit: Embed from Getty Images
