The New England Patriots are known for finding hidden and cheap talent in the free agent market, and they continue to set the standard for underrated signings year in and year out.
Earlier this summer, Bill Belichick and the Patriots orchestrated a huge deal at quarterback by signing former NFL MVP and Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton to a one-year, incentive-laden deal.
Belichick and co. have now struck again, finding hidden talent in an obvious place in what seems like a weekly occurrence. This time, it’s the signing of running back Lamar Miller that stands out. Also in agreement on a one-year deal with incentives, Miller lands with New England in hopes of sticking on the roster and perhaps even claiming a starting role.
With that in mind, what can be expected of the Patriots’ 2020 backfield, which is suddenly looking quite crowded? And what is the forecast from a fantasy football perspective?
In terms of PPR play, the Patriots have always been a tough team to trust. Always open to spreading the football out and drawing up plays centered around trickery, the Patriots are often responsible for a stat sheet that features a long list of players with no standouts.
If you’re looking for New England’s star offensive player, the answer is clearly Julian Edelman, (although the team’s defense/special teams unit is also among the best in fantasy football). In Edelman, the Patriots have a gritty wideout who knows the Belichick system and has played under a legendary quarterback in Tom Brady. Edelman has dealt with situations where he is not the starter, as well as situations where he is the only reliable target on the roster and commands a triple-team.
This vast range of play from Edelman coupled with his ability to absorb hits while holding onto the football and still fighting for the extra yardage make him the clear-cut star in this offense. Other targets set to catch passes from Newton in 2020 include Mohamed Sanu, N’Keal Harry, Jordan Leggett, and rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene.
If you’re still not sold on this pass-catching group, you’re not alone. Of the five players listed above, two are rookies, two have spent less than one year in New England, and the last only has pro experience outside of New England. Nobody will blame you if you are still worried about the fantasy production of this group of receivers who are mostly unproven and won’t see a consistent target share.
The neat thing about New England, though, is that their pass-catching game extends into the backfield. While not rare, having a pass-catching running back is a hot commodity in the NFL and something that teams are relying on more and more.
New England’s backfield features Miller and Sony Michel each fighting for the starting. While both are coming off injuries, one of the two should see success in 2020. They are joined by James White, a pass-catching wizard who is vastly underrated. Fellow target Rex Burkhead and second-year back Damien Harris round out the backfield with Arizona product J.J. Taylor a longshot to make the team.
Ultimately, the main focus should be on White in 2020. While the battle between Miller and Michel will be fun to watch, White is the Patriots running back you want on your fantasy team this year. For starters, he is New England’s only true pass-catching back. Burkhead has dabbled in the receiving game but will ultimately see more usage in the third-down and red zone situations than he will through the air. White, meanwhile, has used his hands and feet to torch defenses and even helped lead the Patriots to their infamous 34-28 comeback win against the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl 51.
In 2019, White finished with the third-most receiving yards (645) out of every running back in the NFL. Los Angeles Chargers young star Austin Ekeler came in at No. 2 with 993 yards, and Carolina Panthers backfield beast Christian McCaffrey took the gold medal with 1,005 yards through the air. While the gap between Ekeler and White is very large, the New England running back’s position at No. 3 on the leaderboard should not be ignored.
White also finished with five touchdowns in the passing game last year, which put him tied in second place on the running back leaderboard behind Ekeler (eight air scores).
Another case can be made by factoring in the quarterback throwing the passes. While it’s hard to dispute the reliability and talent of the greatest quarterback of all-time, it’s fair to expect Newton to take White’s numbers from the Tom Brady era and drastically increase them. That’s because Newton spent over eight seasons in Carolina, including two with the league’s greatest security blanket at his disposal in McCaffrey. Newton passed to McCaffrey 223 times over 30 games in 2017 and 2018, completing 174 passes for 1,419 yards. During that timeframe, McCaffrey led all running backs in targets and completions while finishing second in yards. (He was edged out by Alvin Kamara by a mere 33 yards.)
The point here is not that Cam Newton is going to turn James White into the next Christian McCaffrey. However, it continues to be clear that Belichick really likes having White in his offense and wants to utilize him even more. With Newton’s experience in a passing offense that spotlights the attack of passing to running backs through the air, White is poised to have his biggest season yet.
But where does that put White in comparison to his peers around the NFL? In my latest fantasy rankings, White checks in as the highest-ranked Patriots back, occupying the 25th running back slot. That puts him as a mid- to low-end RB2 in an average lineup, although he might do best rotating in and out of a FLEX role this year. Overall, in my rankings with all players, White holds the 62nd slot. He’s sandwiched into that ranking by Deshaun Watson and Kareem Hunt at Nos. 60 and 61 and Terry McLaurin and David Montgomery at Nos. 63 and 64.
As for everyone else in the New England backfield, while there is uncertainty surrounding exact roles, there is also a growing sense that Michel and Miller can’t both hold onto their titles. Michel underwent a foot injury this summer and is currently on the PUP list. This provides Miller with a golden opportunity to prove himself. While he, too, is coming off an injury (tore his ACL during a preseason game in 2019), he is back to 100 percent. The knock on Miller is that he was set for a smaller role prior to his injury and could have hit an even steeper decline once his injury occurred.
With those aspects in mind, the starting running back job is wide open still. (While White will be the top producer in terms of PPR fantasy football, he will slot in at No. 2 on the depth chart.) You know what to expect from Michel in terms of production, but will he even play in the first half of the season? On the other hand, Miller will be ready to go but might not be the Pro Bowler everyone remembers.
So, with that said, who has a better chance of sticking on the roster and having a better season? Right now, the best and safest pick is Miller. He was overlooked in free agency due to his 2019 absence but is still a beast in the backfield. In fact, from 2013 to 2018, Miller was the fifth-highest-graded running back in the NFL. While he won’t extend that pattern into 2020, he is still a reliable player to utilize on the ground.
In terms of rankings, Miller checks in at No. 37 at the running back position and No. 105 overall. He is sandwiched by Aaron Rodgers and J.K. Dobbins at Nos. 103 and 104 and Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard at Nos. 106 and 107.
Michel, meanwhile, holds down the 50th running back spot (sandwiched by Boston Scott and A.J. Dillon) and will likely open the year on the PUP list.
Michel and Harris are worth a flyer in dynasty leagues, but those two along with Burkhead and Taylor can’t be trusted this year.
2020 belongs to James White. He has an open field ahead of him and a new quarterback who is eager to send the ball his way. Complementing him is a reliable veteran presence in Miller, who isn’t a high-priority fantasy target but will still be a go-to option out of the backfield.
All of a sudden, New England’s backfield duo isn’t on the list of players to avoid. Make sure to monitor Michel and Miller when your draft rolls around.
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