Devin Davis Aug 2nd, 2019
Now that we have established which players you should target for your dynasty league as buy lows, we need to identify the players to put on your trade block. Capitalizing on maximum value due to unsustainable production is the name of the game when it comes to sell high candidates. Let’s take a look at those who you should be shopping.
Eric Ebron – Indianapolis Colts, TE
This call seems pretty obvious. With the additions of Parris Campbell and Devin Funchess and the return of Jack Doyle, Ebron will see a fairly reduced target share this season. After finishing second in receiving touchdowns with 13 last season, there is significant and clear regression coming this season. Despite the talent and situation, it is unrealistic to expect Ebron to sustain a 19.7% touchdown rate this upcoming season. Sell now while people are buying into his 2018 breakout.
Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs, QB
At first glance, this may appear to be a hot take. But with a little research and valuation of quarterbacks in fantasy, the haul for Mahomes should be strongly considered. History has shown that Mahomes’ production is unsustainable. Over the past decade, thirteen quarterbacks have managed a pass TD% of at least 7.0%. The following season, these QBs experienced an average of a 2.5% drop in pass TD rate. The effect of this regression is translated clearly through fantasy production. QB1s since 2012 have failed to repeat that achievement and have simply regressed. Perhaps, capitalizing on Mahomes value this offseason isn’t so blasphemous after all.
Adam Thielen – Minnesota Vikings, WR
After a hot start in 2018, Thielen cooled off significantly down the stretch of the season. Yes, the streak of at least 100 receiving yard games was nice, but the rest of the season was basically a disaster. As Theilen approaches 30 years old, now is the time to flip him for a younger asset with some more dynasty appeal. Thielen only reached double-digit targets in two of the remaining nine weeks last year. The lack of volume is concerning considering the growth and emergence of Stefon Diggs on the opposite side of the offense.
Chris Carson – Seattle Seahawks, RB
In conjunction with my Rashaad Penny, I would look to move Carson. Despite a successful and productive year from Carson in 2018, Penny still outperformed him on a per touch basis. Penny earned 5.3 yards per touch to Carson’s 4.9 yards per touch. As the Seahawks continue to invest in Penny as their 2018 first-round selection, Chris Carson is in danger of losing some of the workload. The volume is there, but I envision Penny being the benefactor. It’s really as simple as buying Rashaad Penny stock and shorting Chris Carson stock.
Juju Smith-Schuster – Pittsburgh Steelers, WR
Don’t get me wrong, I love Juju. But this is a great sell-high opportunity because the entire fantasy community loves him as well. There is a potential path where Juju is unable to fill Antonio Brown’s shoes, Big Ben shows signs of age, and the Steelers offense takes a step back this season. While I don’t envision this scenario transpiring, the probability is too high for me to be content with Juju on my dynasty team. You could easily acquire another young superstar with less concerns. Don’t be afraid to pull the trigger.
Phillip Lindsay – Denver Broncos, RB
Lindsay was a great breakout story from last year as an UDFA. However, with very little commitment to Lindsay, there isn’t much assurance that Lindsay will continue to serve as a workhorse. Speculation was already spreading this offseason that the Broncos might turn to a committee. With the recent signing of Theo Riddick, that looks to be practically confirmed. While I like Lindsay’s talent, I am afraid that the opportunity and volume won’t be there this upcoming season. Still, a young RB with tremendous upside is a coveted asset on the dynasty league market.
Questions and comments?
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