Happy Thanksgiving Everyone! Tomorrow we have a triple header in the NFL. The first game is an NFC North division matchup between the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions. For the second game, the Las Vegas Raiders head to Jerry’s World to take on the Dallas Cowboys. To wrap it, the Buffalo Bills fly south to the Big Easy to take on the New Orleans Saints. All six teams are coming off a loss last week, while five of them are still in the mix for the playoffs.
Usually, these Fave Five Prop Bets articles have five prop bets for the single prime time game. However, with three games on tomorrow, we have the Thanksgiving edition of Fave Five Prop Bets. In this week’s edition, we have my favorite prop bet for each team. As always, all props are from DraftKings. Sign up today with my code and make a $25 deposit to receive a free $25 bet!
Be sure to check out all of my Fave Five Prop Bets.
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions
David Montgomery Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Before suffering a knee injury that forced him to miss four games, Montgomery was playing as well as any running back in the NFL. Over the first four games this season, Montgomery averaged 77.3 rushing yards per game, totaling over 100 yards twice in those games. Meanwhile, the Lions have gotten killed by running backs this season. They have given up the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs, giving up 114.7 rushing yards per game. Over the past seven games, the Lions have given up at least 109 rushing yards in all but one contest. In the Week 4 matchup against the Lions, Montgomery had 106 rushing on a season-high 23 rushing attempts. With several injuries on offense, expect the Bears to lean on Montgomery plenty in this game.
T.J. Hockenson Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)
There might not be a tight end in the NFL more counted on than Hockenson. He has accounted for 20.2 percent of the targets this season, 6.7 percent higher than wide receiver on the team. More importantly, Hockenson has averaged 5.4 receptions per game this season. He has at least six receptions in 60 percent of the games this season, including four of the past five contests. Meanwhile, the Bears have held tight ends to only 3.9 receptions per game this season. However, they have struggled to stop tight ends recently. Over the past two weeks, the Bears have given up 14 receptions to tight ends. As the focal point of the Detroit passing game, Hockenson should hit the over on this prob bet early in the fourth quarter.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys
Hunter Renfrow Over 5.5 Receptions (-115)
When the Raiders need a first down, Renfrow is their go-to receiver. The former fifth-round pick has averaged 5.6 receptions per game this season, finishing with at least five receptions in all but two games. He had at least six receptions in five of the past seven contests. The slot receiver has 56 receptions this season. That total is more than double the next closest wide receiver on the team with 21. More importantly, Renfrow has averaged six receptions on 7.3 targets per game since the Raiders released Henry Ruggs. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have given up an average of 11.9 receptions per game to wide receiver this season. Since the Raiders lack weapons at wide receiver, don’t be surprised if Renfrow finishes this game with a career-high eight receptions.
Dalton Schultz Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they don’t expect Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb to play in this game. Cooper will miss his second straight game because of Covid-19, while Lamb has a concussion. Schultz finished second on the team with eight targets last week. More importantly, he led the team with 53 receiving yards. Schultz has averaged 49.1 receiving yards per game this season, finishing with at least 50 receiving yards in six of the past eight games. Meanwhile, the Raiders have allowed tight ends to average 66.7 receiving yards per game this season. They have given up over 55 receiving yards to tight ends in six of their past eight games. Without his top two receivers, expect Dak Prescott to target Schultz early and often tomorrow.
Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints
Dawson Knox Over 3.5 Receptions (-105)
After averaging 1.9 receptions per game over the first two years of his career, Knox has averaged 3.5 receptions per game this season. He has at least three receptions in all but two games this season, including five of the past six contests. More importantly, Knox had a career-high six receptions on 10 targets last week. Meanwhile, the Saints have given up an average of 4.8 receptions per game to tight ends this season. Furthermore, they have given up at least four receptions to tight ends in all but two games this season, including eight of the past nine games. Coming off a career game, Knox could hit the over on this prop bet by halftime.
Tre’Quan Smith Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Despite missing the first five games this season, Smith has taken over as the No. 1 wide receiver, averaging 41 receiving yards per game. Over the past four weeks, Smith has averaged 48.5 receiving yards per game, totaling at least 44 receiving yards in three straight contests. Meanwhile, the Bills have given up an average of 117.1 receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season. They have given up at least 165 receiving yards to wide receiver in three of their past six games, including a season-high 194 receiving yards to the New York Jets wide receivers two weeks ago. With Smith averaging 12.8 yards per reception this season, all it takes is three receptions for him to hit the over on this prop bet.
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