Tonight we have a matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Arizona Cardinals. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care about making money. However, which bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Be sure to check out all of my Fave Five Prop Bets.
Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-185)
Rodgers has thrown 15 touchdowns this season, averaging 2.1 per game. However, removing the awful Week 1 performance, Rodgers has averaged 2.5 passing touchdowns per game this season. While he caught 37.5 percent of Rodgers’ passing touchdowns last season, Davante Adams has caught only 20 percent this season, catching three of the 15 passing touchdowns. More importantly, Rodgers has thrown two or more passing touchdowns in each of his past six games, including three last week. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have held quarterbacks to only 1.3 passing touchdowns per game this season. However, they have given up two or more passing touchdowns to Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, and Baker Mayfield. While Rodgers won’t have Adams for tonight’s game, that won’t keep him from throwing two touchdowns.
Kyler Murray Under 276.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Through the first seven weeks of the season, Murray is fifth in the NFL with 2,002 passing yards. He has averaged 286 passing yards per game this season, but his passing numbers have slowed down the past few games. Over the first three weeks, Murray averaged 335 passing yards per game, throwing for at least 289 in every contest. However, Murray has averaged only 249.3 passing yards per game over the past four weeks, throwing for under 270 in every game. Meanwhile, the Packers have held quarterbacks to only 229.9 passing yards per game, giving up under 277 passing yards in all but one game this season. The Cardinals have recently leaned on the running game more, further limiting Murray’s passing upside.
Aaron Jones Over 97.5 Scrimmage Yards (-115)
Without Allen Lazard and Adams tonight because of Covid-19 protocol, the Packers will rely heavily on Jones. Against the Washington Football team last week, Jones had only 39 scrimmage yards on 11 touches. However, Jones averaged 105.8 scrimmage yards per game over the previous five weeks, totaling at least 96 scrimmage yards in every game. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have allowed an average of 127.3 scrimmage yards per game to running backs this season. They have given over 100 scrimmage yards to running backs in all but one game this season, including over 175 twice. Furthermore, the Cardinals won’t have J.J. Watt for this game. Expect the Packers to get Jones the ball at least 22 times tonight, undoubtedly allowing him to hit the over on this prop bet.
Chase Edmonds Over 3.5 Receptions (+115)
While he splits the work in the backfield with James Conner, Edmonds is the pass-catching back. He has averaged 3.9 receptions per game this season, catching at least three passes in all but one game. Edmonds also has four or more passes in over half of his games this season. More importantly, he has a 14.8 percent targets share this season, only 1.3 percent behind Christian Kirk for second on the team. Meanwhile, the Packers have allowed an average of 5.7 receptions per game to running backs this season. They have given five or more receptions to running backs in all but one game, giving up six or more in over half of their games. Edmonds is more likely to finish tonight’s game with over six receptions than under four.
Robert Tonyan Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Last season Tonyan broke out and averaged a career-high 36.6 receiving yards per game. However, he has regressed this season, averaging only 22.1 receiving yards per game, finishing with under 11 receiving yards in over 70 percent of the contests. Tonyan has also averaged 1.2 fewer receptions per game this season than last year, finishing with under four receptions in all but one game. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have given up the fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season. They have held tight ends to only 22.3 receiving yards per game, giving up 30 or fewer in all but one game. Even with Adams out for tonight’s game, don’t expect Tonyan to pick up the slack.
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