Tonight we have a matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Los Angeles Chargers. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care about making money. However, which bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Be sure to check out all of my Fave Five Prop Bets.
Najee Harris to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-120)
Not only has he been the best rookie running back this season, but Harris also leads the Steelers in touchdowns with six. He has averaged 24 touches per game this season, including 25 or more in five straight games. More importantly, Harris has scored a touchdown in all but three games this season, including five of the past six contests. Meanwhile, the Chargers have given up 13 total touchdowns to running backs this season, the third-most in the NFL. They have given up at least one touchdown to running backs all but two games this season. Furthermore, the Chargers have given up 10 rushing touchdowns to running backs over their past five games. As the focal point of the offense, Harris will score at least once in this matchup.
Keenan Allen Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Allen has averaged 77.6 receiving yards per game this season, totaling at least 75 receiving yards in 67 percent of the contests. He has averaged 10.3 targets per game this season, the highest on the team. Allen has also seen at least 11 targets in 67 percent of the games this season. Meanwhile, wide receivers have averaged 160.8 receiving yards per game this season against the Steelers. Wide receivers have finished with over 220 receiving yards against the Steelers in a third of the games this season. More importantly, the Steelers will be without several star defensive players tonight, including T.J. Watt, Joe Haden, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. As good as Allen has been this season, he could hit the over on this prop bet early in the fourth quarter.
Pat Freiermuth Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The rookie has a bright spot for the Steelers this season, averaging 30.7 receiving yards per game. However, Freiermuth has averaged 44 receiving yards per game in the four games without JuJu Smith-Schuster, totaling at least 43 receiving yards in all but one of those contests. More importantly, he has averaged 48.3 receiving yards per game in the past three games with Ben Roethlisberger under center. Meanwhile, the Chargers have given up the ninth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season, giving up over 64 receiving yards per game. They have given up at least 43 receiving yards to tight ends in seven of their past eight contests. After missing last week’s game with Covid-19, expect Big Ben to look Freiermuth’s way early and often tonight.
Austin Ekeler Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Earlier in his career, many considered Ekeler a pass-catching back. However, Ekeler has proven those people wrong. He has averaged 58.1 rushing yards per game this season, totaling at least 59 rushing yards in four of the past six games. Meanwhile, the Steelers have given up the eighth-most rushing yards to running backs this season, giving up 107.3 rushing yards per game to the position. Last week the Steelers gave up 229 rushing yards to the Detroit Lions running backs, including a career-high 130 rushing yards to D’Andre Swift. Furthermore, they gave up 97 rushing yards to Jermar Jefferson and Godwin Igwebuike on only five rushing attempts last week. After the Steelers’ lackluster performance last week, Ekeler could hit the over on this prop bet before halftime.
Ben Roethlisberger Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-165)
After missing last week’s game against the Detroit Lions with Covid-19, Big Ben will get the start tonight. However, he has struggled this season. In 2020, Roethlisberger had 33 passing touchdowns, throwing two or more touchdowns in 80 percent of the games. By comparison, Roethlisberger has thrown only 10 touchdowns this season, throwing two or more in 25 percent of the contests. Meanwhile, the Chargers have given up only 12 touchdown passes to quarterbacks this season, the second-fewest in the NFL. They have held quarterbacks to under 1.5 passing touchdowns in 55.6 percent of the games this season. Coming off Covid-19, expect the Steelers to limit what they put on Big Ben’s shoulders. He is more likely to finish tonight’s game without a passing touchdown than two or more.
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