Tonight we have a matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care about making money. However, which bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Be sure to check out all of my Fave Five Prop Bets.
Teddy Bridgewater Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
Bridgewater has been inconsistent this season, averaging only 1.4 passing touchdowns per game. He has thrown under 1.5 passing touchdowns in over half the games this season, including four straight. More importantly, Bridgewater has thrown two or more touchdowns in only three of the past nine games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have done an excellent job of slowing down quarterbacks recently. Over their past six games, the Chiefs have held quarterbacks to only 1.2 passing touchdowns per game, giving up under 1.5 passing touchdowns in four of those games. In their last game, the Chiefs didn’t give up a touchdown to Dak Prescott. Don’t be surprised if Bridgewater suffers a similar fate in this game.
Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (-150)
Arguably the greatest tight end in NFL history, Kelce has continued to be Patrick Mahomes’ go-to weapon. He has averaged 6.1 receptions per game this season, finishing with at least six receptions in 63.6 percent of the games. More importantly, Kelce has stepped up for the Chiefs when it mattered most this season. With defenses playing the two-deep safety look against the Chiefs, Kelce has a critical role in the middle of the field. As defenses stop Tyreek Hill downfield, Mahomes has to lean on Kelce in the middle of the field to move the chains. While the Broncos have held tight ends to only four receptions per game this season, they haven’t faced a tight as talented as Kelce. He will finish tonight’s game with at least six receptions.
Javonte Williams Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
With Melvin Gordon dealing with a hip injury, Williams will get his first career start tonight. Despite splitting the backfield work with Gordon, Williams has played very well this year. Williams has averaged two receptions for 17.6 receiving yards per game this season. More importantly, the Denver backfield averages 32.6 receiving yards per game this season, with Williams leading the way. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have given up 54 receiving yards per game to running backs this season, the sixth-most in the NFL. With Gordon out of his way, Williams will hit the over on this prop bet early in the fourth quarter.
Patrick Mahomes Under 280.5 Passing Yards (-115)
After setting the league on fire early in his career, Mahomes has come back down to Earth this season, averaging 290.9 passing yards per game. He has thrown for under 280 passing yards in 63.6 percent of the games this season. More importantly, as defenses play the two-deep safety look against the Chiefs, Mahomes has struggled. Over the past nine games, Mahomes has thrown for over 280 passing yards only twice. By comparison, he had 260 or fewer passing yards in four of those games. Meanwhile, the Broncos have given up the eighth-fewest passing yards this season, giving up only 239.7 passing yards per game. The Broncos will keep the Chiefs offense under control, forcing Mahomes to hit the under on this prop bet.
Courtland Sutton Under 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The veteran wide receiver has struggled this season. He has averaged only 57.6 receiving yards per game this season, his lowest since his rookie season. Furthermore, Sutton has been awful with Jeudy in the lineup. In the five games with Jeudy in the lineup this season, Sutton has averaged 21.8 receiving yards per game. By comparison, Sutton has averaged 87.5 receiving yards per game with Jeudy out of the lineup this season. More importantly, Sutton has finished with under 44 receiving yards in every game with Jeudy this year. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have held wide receivers to only 140.8 receiving yards per game over their past four contests. Sutton is more likely to throw a touchdown pass tonight than finish with over 43.5 receiving yards.
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