Tonight we have a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care about making money. However, which bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Be sure to check out all of my Fave Five Prop Bets.
Josh Allen Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Allen has been the best quarterback over the past three weeks. He has nine total touchdowns compared to only two turnovers, leading the Bills to a 3-0 record. While the Bills have leaned on their running back more this season, especially Zack Moss, Allen is still averaging six rushing attempts for 32.3 rushing yards per game. More importantly, Allen has rushed for 35 or more yards in 75 percent of his games this season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have given up the most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, giving up 44.3 yards per game. In the two games against the Chiefs last season, Allen averaged 65 rushing yards per game, totaling 42 or more in both contests. Allen should hit the over on this prop bet early in the fourth quarter.
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105)
Last week, Mahomes threw a season-high five touchdowns on only 30 pass attempts. Furthermore, he threw a touchdown once every 4.8 completions last week. Mahomes has a 9.9 percent touchdown rate this season, throwing a touchdown once every 7.3 completions. More importantly, Mahomes has thrown at least three touchdowns in every game this season. Meanwhile, the Bills have surrendered only three passing touchdowns this year. However, the Bills have faced Ben Roethlisberger, Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke, and Davis Mills at quarterback. Needless to say, Mahomes will be the best quarterback the Bills will face this season. In the playoff game against the Bills last season, Mahomes had three passing touchdowns in their 38-24 win. Mahomes is more likely to throw five touchdowns tonight than under three.
Dawson Knox Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
In the first two years of his career, Knox averaged only 25 receiving yards per game. However, Knox has stepped up this season, averaging 36 receiving yards per game, totaling 37 or more in three of four contests. Furthermore, Knox averaged 3.5 targets per game over the first two years of his career compared to five per game this season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have given up the most receiving yards to tight ends this season, giving up an average of 87 receiving yards per game. More importantly, the Chiefs have given up over 45 receiving yards to tight ends in every game this season, including over 115 twice. Knox has become a consistent part of the offense and should hit the over on this prop bet by halftime.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Over the past two weeks, Edwards-Helaire has rushed for over 100 yards in both games. However, CEH rushed for under 50 yards in each of the previous two games, averaging only 3.3 yards per rushing attempt. Meanwhile, the Bills have given up the fourth-fewest rushing yards to running backs this season, giving up only 51.3 per game. They have held running backs to under 55 rushing yards in three of four games this season, holding them to only 3.3 yards per rushing attempt. Furthermore, CEH averaged only 1.2 rushing yards per attempt in their playoff game against the Bills last season. The Bills will score at will on the Chiefs, forcing Mahomes to chase points, which will limit Edwards-Helaire’s rushing attempts. Expect a quiet game from CEH tonight.
Zack Moss Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
After missing Week 1, Moss has turned into the Bills’ lead running back, averaging 49 rushing yards per game this season. More importantly, Moss has 60 or more rushing yards in both of the past two games, averaging 4.5 yards per rushing attempt. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have given up an average of 90.5 rushing yards per game to running backs this season. They have also given up over 115 rushing yards to running backs in half of their games this season, giving up 5.7 yards per rushing attempt in those contests. Moss has averaged 13.5 rushing attempts per game over the past two weeks and could have his first 20 rushing attempt game of the season tonight. Depending on game flow, Moss could hit the over on this prop bet in the first half.
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