Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets for MNF: Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints

Tonight we have a matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the New Orleans Saints. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care about making money. However, which bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.

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Be sure to check out all of my Fave Five Prop Bets.

Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-140)

The second-year quarterback has played well this season, averaging 1.4 passing touchdowns per game. However, Tua has been inconsistent at times this season. 28.6 percent of his passing touchdowns this season came in Week 7 against the Atlanta Falcons. Furthermore, he has thrown over 1.5 passing touchdowns in 50 percent of the games this season, including only three times over his past six games. Meanwhile, the Saints have held quarterbacks to only 1.3 passing touchdowns per game this season. They have held quarterbacks under 1.5 passing touchdowns in 64.3 percent of the games this season, including five of the past six weeks. While Tua has played well at times this season, expect him to struggle tonight against a talented Saints defense.

Alvin Kamara Over 83.5 Scrimmage Yards (-115)

With the Saints lacking weapons in the passing game, Kamara has turned into the focal point of their offense. The star running back has averaged 101.6 scrimmage yards per game this season. He had at least 90 scrimmage yards in 70 percent of the games this season, including six of the past eight games. Furthermore, Kamara has more games this season with over 115 scrimmage yards (five) than games with under 90 scrimmage yards (three). Meanwhile, the Dolphins have given up an average of 117.4 scrimmage yards per game to running backs this season. They have given up over 100 scrimmage yards to running backs in over half the contests this year. Kamara will hit the over on this prop bet early in the fourth quarter.

Jaylen Waddle Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

After missing last week’s game because of Covid-19 protocols, Waddle is ready to go tonight. The rookie wide receiver has been a star this season, averaging 65.3 receiving yards per game. However, he has averaged 77.3 receiving yards per game over the past eight games, totaling at least 61 receiving yards in all but one of those contests. Furthermore, Waddle has been great recently, averaging 87.2 receiving yards per game over the past five games. Meanwhile, the Saints have given up an average of 175.1 receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season. With Marshon Lattimore covering DeVante Parker on the outside, expect Tua to target Waddle plenty in this game.

Ian Book Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Thanks to Covid-19, the Saints will start their fourth quarterback this season tonight. The fourth-round rookie Book will make his first NFL start tonight after a productive career at Notre Dame. Not only did Book average 235.8 passing yards per game his final year at Notre Dame, but he also averaged 40.4 rushing yards per game. Furthermore, Book averaged 41.2 rushing yards per game over his final two seasons in college. Meanwhile, when the Dolphins have struggled when facing running quarterbacks this season. They have given up an average of 42.3 rushing yards per game this season when facing Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. A big part of the Saints offense is designed quarterback runs. Don’t be surprised if Book hits the over on this prop bet by halftime.

Mike Gesicki Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Coming off a solid 2020 season, Gesicki has stepped up his play this year. He has averaged a career-high 48.9 receiving yards per game this season. More importantly, Gesicki has totaled at least 41 receiving yards in 78.6 percent of the games this season, including three of the past four games. Furthermore, he has averaged 53.7 receiving yards per game since Week 3. Meanwhile, the Saints have held tight ends to 41.9 receiving yards per game this season. However, they have struggled to slow down tight ends lately. Over the past seven weeks, the Saints have given up an average of 46.3 receiving yards per game to tight ends. While Waddle is Tua’s go-to receiver, expect Gesicki to have no trouble hitting the over on this prop bet tonight.

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