Tonight we have a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care about making money. However, which bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Be sure to check out all of my Fave Five Prop Bets.
Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-200)
In the first two games against the New England Patriots this season, Allen had four total touchdown passes. Last week, he had five touchdowns in a blowout win compared to four incompletions. More importantly, Allen threw at least two touchdown passes in 76.5 percent of the regular-season games. Furthermore, Allen had three passing touchdowns on only 15 completions in the Week 5 matchup against the Chiefs. Meanwhile, Kansas City gave up an average of 1.5 passing touchdowns per game to quarterbacks during the regular season. They also surrendered two passing touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger last week. The Chiefs’ defense has played better of late. However, Allen will have no trouble hitting the over on this prop bet.
Tyreek Hill Over 5.5 Receptions (-125)
The sixth-year veteran had the best year of his career catching the ball this season. Not only did he see a career-high 159 targets this season, but Hill had over 90 receptions for the first time in his career, finishing the regular season with 111. More importantly, Hill averaged 6.5 receptions per game this season, almost a full reception more than his previous career-high last season. Hill had six or more receptions in just under 60 percent of the games this season, including seven receptions against the Bills in Week 5. Meanwhile, the Bills gave up seven receptions to Kendrick Bourne and six receptions to Jakobi Meyers last week. With Tre’Davious White out for the season, expect Hill to have a big performance against the Bills.
Dawson Knox Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
When the Bills took on the Chiefs in Week 5, Knox had arguably his best game of the year. He finished with a career-high 117 receiving yards on only three receptions. Knox had at least 41 receiving yards in half the games this season. Furthermore, Knox had 89 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns against a talented Patriots defense last week. Meanwhile, the Chiefs gave up an average of 52.8 receiving yards per game to tight ends during the regular season. Last week, Pat Freiermuth and Zach Gentry combined for 58 receiving yards against the Chiefs. Given how well Knox played last week, the Bills will make him a focal point of the game plan this week. He should hit the over on this prop bet early in the fourth quarter.
Patrick Mahomes Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-175)
While Mahomes had only one fewer passing touchdown this season than he did in 2020, he played in two more games. After averaging 2.5 passing touchdowns per game in 2020, Mahomes averaged 2.2 per game this season. Furthermore, he threw under 2.5 passing touchdowns in 58.8 percent of the regular-season games. Mahomes also had under 2.5 passing touchdowns in eight of the final 11 games to close out the regular season. Meanwhile, the Bills held quarterbacks to only 12 passing touchdowns during the regular season, the fewest in the NFL. Mahomes had only two touchdown passes against the Bills in Week 5 despite 54 pass attempts. The Bills’ defense will keep Mahomes in check and not allow him to throw more than two touchdown passes in this game.
Josh Allen Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
As great as Allen has been throwing the ball this season, his rushing ability has been equally as good. Allen had a career-high 122 rushing attempts during the regular season. He has rushed for at least 50 yards in 44.4 percent of the games this season, including four straight games. Since losing to the Patriots in Week 13, Allen has averaged 67.8 rushing yards per game, rushing for at least 63 yards in five of the six contests. Meanwhile, the Chiefs gave up an average of 22.9 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks in the regular season, the sixth-most in the NFL. Allen had 59 rushing yards on 11 rushing attempts against the Chiefs in Week 5. He should hit the over on this prop pet early in the second half.
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