The NBA Finals will start on Thursday. It has been one eventful season. From the wildest trade deadline ever (including the craziest trade ever), to the unfortunate injuries throughout the year, and to one of the best playoffs we’ve seen in recent memory, this has been one of the most hectic seasons in a long time.
This crazy season could be over as early as next week.
With all this said, here are my predictions for how the NBA Finals will turn out.
Breakdown of Each Team
Many think that this is one of the most lopsided matchups we have seen in a while. However, when you break down the rosters, they are relatively similar. Both teams’ point guards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton, are two of the best play-makers and shot creators in the league. They also have two of the better second-scoring options in the league in Pascal Siakam and Jalen Williams. Additionally, both teams have big men who stretch the floor in Chet Holmgren and Myles Turner. This is all without mentioning that they are two of the most well-coached teams in the league.
While they have their similarities, both teams will certainly make adjustments to throw each other off.
The Pacers have had one of the league’s best offenses for the past two years now. Though he is not the only reason, Haliburton’s emergence into a top-15 player is a large reason for that. At the beginning of last season, he was playing out of his mind, but then he hurt his groin. Many thought that we would never see that version of Haliburton again. However, since the All-Star Break, he has played his best basketball. In addition, the rest of the Pacers’ depth has played even better than they did in the regular season for the second year in a row.
For the Thunder, they were above and beyond the best team in the regular season. From having the best record, a top-three defense, the best offense and net rating, and the MVP, they really could not have asked for a better season. This all happened despite running into a lot of injuries at the beginning of the season. The reason they were able to survive so many injuries is because of how well their roster is constructed.
Not only do they have the MVP, but they also have two of the best second and third options in the league in Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. In addition to those three, they also have defensive specialists in Alex Caruso, Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, and Isaiah Hartenstein. At the end of the day, when you build your roster around guys who work their tails off on both ends of the floor, your margin for error will be pretty big.
What Each Team Needs to Do to Win
If the Pacers want to win this series, a lot has to go right. The Knicks are a great team, but Oklahoma City is a different animal. Though Haliburton has been awesome in the playoffs, he has had a couple of brutal moments. He cannot have more than one of these if the Pacers want to win. We will need to see him average a solid 23 PPG and 12 APG with elite efficiency. Also, Pascal Siakam will need to play just as good, if not better, than he did in the Eastern Conference Finals. In addition, role players like Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nemhard, and Obbi Toppin will need to put in extra work to make Oklahoma City’s offense uncomfortable.
Lastly, I am not sure if the Pacers have one “X-factor,” but if they do, it is Myles Turner. Turner has had his highs and lows in the playoffs, but if the Pacers want any shot at winning this series, he will have to play on the same level as Holmgren.
The Thunder, on the other hand, have a lot of wiggle room. We could see multiple sub-20-point games from Gilgeous-Alexander, and the Thunder could have no problem. With this being said, they cannot let certain losses get to them. They have disproved the “they are too young” allegations. However, a bad series from them would justify the skepticism that fans and media had all season long.
It will not be a huge deal if they get blown out in Game 1, but they will need to continue what they have been doing all year long: punching back harder. Even if Haliburton has an All-NBA-esque series, the Thunder can shut everyone else down. They can also outproduce them on offense with Williams and Holmgren.
At the end of the day, while the Thunder are able to make some mistakes this series, they cannot let those mistakes stack up.
My Prediction
In a way, this series reminds me of the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals between the Pacers and Celtics. Every Celtics fan will tell you that the Pacers gave the Celtics a super hard time. Even though it was a sweep, the Pacers made them work.
The 2024-25 Thunder are very similar to those Celtics in the sense that they have both a top-three offense and defense, are led by an All-NBA First Team player, have an All-Star second option, have perfect complementary pieces, and have a young but very smart coach.
Just like this series, both the Pacers and the Thunder run a very fast-paced offense and execute. With this being said, just like last year, the biggest difference is the defense. While the Pacers are a better defensive team at the beginning of the year, they are not on the same level as the Thunder.
Just like last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, I think most of the games will be super close. Ultimately, the Pacers are a better team than they were last year, so I will give them one game. For every other game, Oklahoma City will out-execute them down the stretch.
Prediction: Thunder in 5
Main Image Credit: Jimmy Do/NBA.com
