The Baseball Writers Association of America will announce its inductees to the Hall of Fame on Jan. 21.
Last year’s ballot featured plenty of talent, but this year’s is even more stacked. At least one dozen players have a solid case for being inducted. In addition, three or four players also have a realistic chance of being voted in this year.
There is certainly more to voting than finding the best baseball players on the ballot, especially when you factor in the rules for qualifying. To be inducted by the BBWAA, a player must receive 75 percent of the votes. If a player does not reach the 75 percent threshold, they still might have a chance in future ballots. They have 10 chances, but they also must receive above five percent of the votes to be eligible for the next year’s ballot.
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This year, it was harder than most to fill out a ballot. I do not have an official BBWAA vote, but this article will address who I would vote for if I did. Before I give my case about any player, it’s important to understand that quality of play is the primary factor. Some people leave out players because of steroid allegations, some leave out players due to character clauses, and some leave out players because they just don’t like them. While these are understandable reasons, I think voting on anything except how they played and what they accomplished in their career causes too big of a gray area. After all, there are already a ton of cheaters and awful people in the Hall of Fame today.
With all this being said, here are the players on the ballot. Players are sorted by how long they’ve been eligible.
Just Missed It
Francisco Rodriguez, Bobby Abreu, Dustin Pedroia
Both Rodriguez and Abreu have been on my ballots in the past, and it would not surprise me at all if all three of these guys end up on my ballot next year, or years after that.
Billy Wagner
This is Wagner’s 10th and final year on the ballot. I have said it since about his third or fourth year: it is a crime that he has not yet been inducted. Yes, he was only a reliever and did not pitch too many innings, but he is debatably the second-best closer ever. Many will tell you Trevor Hoffman was much better, but the only thing Hoffman had over Wagner was longevity. Wagner was much better on a per-game basis.
Wagner was a seven-time All-Star, finished among the top six in Cy Young voting twice (which is super impressive for relievers), and received MVP votes in two seasons. He was also among the top 10 in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for NL pitchers in 1999, top 10 in National League saves 10 times, and is sixth all-time in career saves. For his career, he averaged 34 saves, a 2.31 ERA, and a 187 ERA+ (league average is 100).
When a player puts together these numbers and is awarded these accolades, they are usually inducted into the Hall sooner rather than later. If Wagner does not get inducted this year, the Hall of Fame criteria will continue to be extremely inconsistent.
Here’s to Billy Wagner spending his last night as not a Hall of Famer. He’s been one from the beginning tbh. Just ask Bonds. Barry Bonds.pic.twitter.com/SxTNVrn39S
— Dinn Mann (@mooseoutfront) January 21, 2025
Manny Ramirez
Last year, when I was breaking down Ramirez’s career, I knew that he was an all-time great, but I do not think enough people realize how filthy he was in his prime. He led the American League in batting average, RBI, and home runs once, while also leading in on-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage, and on-base plus slugging (OPS) three times. Ramirez also finished top 10 in OBP 10 times, slugging 11 times, and OPS 12 times. Furthermore, he has 555 career home runs, which ranks 15th all-time. These crazy numbers led him to be a 12-time All-Star and a nine-time Silver Slugger, and he won two rings with the Red Sox in 2004 (in which he won World Series MVP) and 2007.
Looking at the numbers alone, this is a first-ballot Hall of Fame career. However, in 2009, Ramirez was suspended 50 games for using performance-enhancing substances.
This is Ramirez’s second-to-last year on the ballot, and it is doubtful that he will sniff the 75 percent mark within the next two years. Last year, he finished with 32.5 percent of the vote, and as of Jan. 17 this year, he was at 36.1 percent. He will likely get in one day through the Veterans Association, but it would require a miracle for the BBWAA to induct him.
Andruw Jones
If the Hall of Fame considered greatness in MLB The Show, Jones would have been a unanimous first-ballot Hall of Famer. And when you break it down, his actual, real-life performance was not much worse. My favorite stat about Jones is that he is one of four players to hit 400 home runs with 10 Gold Gloves. The other three are Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., and Mike Schmidt, all players debatably the greatest of all time at their positions.
So why hasn’t Jones been inducted? First off, the back end of his career was pretty brutal. He played over 100 games just once in his last five seasons, and in those five years, he had a 95 OPS+. In addition to poor play at the end of his career, he does have alleged off-the-field issues, which is understandably a deal-breaker for a lot of voters. With this being said, his votes have been on the rise for the past couple of years, and I think he will get in eventually.
Alex Rodriguez
A-Rod is the best player on the ballot. Where do I even begin? Should I start with the fact that he has three MVPs and 10 top-10 finishes? Or that he is sixth all-time in home runs and fourth all-time in RBI? Or that he finished top 10 in OBP 10 times, in OPS nine times, and in OPS+ nine times? You could argue that he is the greatest shortstop of all time.
So, what’s the hold-up? Well, just like other players on the ballot, he used steroids. He was suspended for the entirety of the 2014 season because of it. Therefore, while I believe he will get voted in one day, it probably will not be until after his 10th year on the ballot when the Veterans Association has a chance to induct him.
Alex Rodriguez (13)
3,000th Hit ?Opponent: Detroit Tigers
Pitcher: Justin Verlander
Date: 6/19/15 pic.twitter.com/ycm34VKg11— Yankees Home Runs (@NYY_HR) January 17, 2025
Carlos Beltran
This is Beltran’s third year on the ballot. He was a nine-time All-Star, and he finished his career with three Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers. Unfortunately for Beltran, he had to compete with players like Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, and Vladimir Guerrero for many of the Silver Slugger opportunities. His best season came in 2006 with the Mets when he hit 41 home runs (fifth in NL), drove in 116 (tied for seventh), and had a .982 OPS (fifth), 150 OPS+ (fifth), and 8.2 WAR (second behind Albert Pujols). There are not a ton of reliable advanced metrics to measure Beltran’s defense, but he was easily the best defensive center fielder in his prime.
Beltran has not yet been inducted due to his role in the 2017 Astros cheating scandal. However, as of Jan. 19, he was at 80.6 percent of the known vote. Even if he does not get in this year, it will likely come very soon.
David Wright
When people talk about Wright’s legacy, the first thing they usually say is, “He was an awesome player and would have made the Hall of Fame if it were not for his injuries.” While this may be true, I will die on the hill that he should be in the Hall of Fame despite the injuries.
Wright was a seven-time All-Star who won two Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers. Only 30 players in the history of baseball have done that. 17 of those 30 players are already in the Hall. As for the other 13, 10 of those players are either active or have not been voted in due to scandals. Wright is head and shoulders above the remaining three. On accolades alone, Wright has a very solid argument. In addition, Wright finished top 10 in MVP four times.
Statistically speaking, Wright finished top 10 in batting average four times, OBP three times, OPS four times, OPS+ four times, and WAR three times. However, the main argument for Wright is that the median WAR for Hall of Fame members is between 50 and 70. Wright’s lifetime WAR is 51.2.
The Hall of Fame is for the players who were the best in the game, which is exactly what Wright was. Argue about longevity all you want, but if guys with greater longevity are not going to contribute as many wins as players with shorter careers, then what is the point? When evaluating a player, the voters should value peak over longevity, and few players peaked higher than Wright during his time.
“This is a complete ‘pinch-me’ moment.”
With the @Mets retiring his number this summer, David Wright discusses the tremendous honor and his favorite moment from playing in New York. #MLBTonight pic.twitter.com/x9GrANugpe
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 8, 2025
Chase Utley
I try to fill out 10 guys on my ballot every year. From last year, three of my picks were voted in, and one of them was kicked off the ballot in his 10th year, leaving four open spots. Despite Utley not making my ballot last year, he was easily one of the first guys I decided to add to my ballot this year. In addition to being a key piece on the 2008 World Series-winning Phillies team, Utley is a six-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger. He also finished in the top 10 in OPS and OPS+ twice, and in batting average and home runs once. Plus, he finished with over 60 WAR, ranking 14th amongst all second basemen in MLB history.
Ichiro Suzuki
Now, we meet the newcomers—players on the ballot for the first time. Ichiro did not join the majors until he was 27 because he was playing in Japan. Even with his late start, he put together a Hall of Fame career.
In his rookie season alone, he won the Rookie of the Year and MVP while leading the league in hits and batting average. For his entire career, he led the league in batting average twice and in hits seven times. In addition, he finished top ten in batting average nine times. Even though he was not as good for the second half of his career (83 OPS+ from 2011 through 2019), the elite first half of his career—plus his greatness in Japan—make him an undisputed first-ballot Hall of Famer.
CC Sabathia
Our last two guys will be the only starting pitchers on the ballot. Sabathia is a player people will remember since he played with the Yankees for more than half of his career, but it feels like most people do not remember how great he was in his prime.
Sabathia was a six-time All-Star, won the Cy Young in 2007, and was on the 2009 World Series-winning Yankees team. He won ALCS MVP before securing his ring. He also finished top five in Cy Young voting five times. Statistically, Sabathia ranked among the top 10 in ERA seven times, strikeouts 10 times, and ERA+ seven times.
While his prime numbers might not wow everyone, voters should acknowledge that he was one of the best pitchers in the league for a few years, and he pitched for 18 seasons. It is not a matter of “if” he will get into the Hall of Fame, but “when.”
Tuffest strikeout I’ve ever seen, can’t wait for this guy to be elected to the HoF next week @CC_Sabathia pic.twitter.com/Tv68a7VbS1
— And That’s Baseball (@AndThatsBB) January 17, 2025
Felix Hernandez
Picking my 10th player was super tough. It came down to Hernandez and Pedroia, but I ultimately chose the former because there was a multi-year stretch when he looked like the best pitcher in the league. I never really felt that about Pedroia at second base—not even the year he won MVP.
Hernandez was a six-time All-Star and won the Cy Young in 2010. For his entire career, he finished top 10 in Cy Young voting six times. Statistically, he led the league in ERA twice. He also finished top 10 in ERA six times, WAR (among pitchers) six times, strikeouts nine times, and ERA+ five times.
Hernandez made the All-Star game in 2015, but the last four seasons of his career were pretty brutal. However, I do not think these four seasons should take away from an otherwise Hall of Fame-caliber career.
Conclusion
This is an awesome ballot. It will sure be interesting to see who gets in on Tuesday, as well as how it impacts voting in future years.
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