This is Part 4 of this year’s bi-weekly NBA power rankings.
The criteria of these rankings include, in no particular order:
- Team Record
- Net Rating (Point Differential Per 100 Possessions)
- SRS (Combination of Strength of Schedule and Net Rating
- Sprinkle of where teams are trending
We are about a month and a quarter into the season. To put it bluntly, this is a bizarre season. The teams that are at the very top were expected to be this good, but not for every other team in the top ten. Here is who I have playing at that level so far.
Editor’s Note: Stats are accurate as of December 15.
Honorable Mentions: Miami Heat, Golden State Warriors, Toronto Raptors, Philadelphia 76ers
10. Orlando Magic
First up, we have the team that made it to the final four for the NBA Cup. I mentioned last ranking that they were one of the weirder teams to rank in the league. This is because their numbers are technically better when Paolo Banchero is not playing. This has been a common trend for four years now, but Paolo has gotten much better through the years. With this being said, the Magic have looked great this year both with and without Paolo. We’ll see how things end up the rest of the season.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves
It seems like every year the Wolves start a little slow but begin to pick it up after the first month and a half or so. Even though they’re not super high in the standings, I trust them as much as any team in the West outside of the Thunder. Even though Anthony Edwards missed the last two games, since Thanksgiving, he is averaging 30 points per game, over 1.5 stocks per game, on 71.7% True Shooting. When Edwards has it going, he is one of the most unstoppable players in the league.
8. Boston Celtics
After starting 0-3, the Celtics have looked like one of the best teams in the league. Since the start of the season, they are fourth in offense, sixth in net rating, and fifth in SRS. As a Celtics fan, I have defended Jaylen Brown for my life since he was drafted. However, even I wasn’t expecting him to play as great as he has been playing. He is averaging his career high in points per game, assists per game, and true shooting percentage. I question this team’s ceiling without Jayson Tatum. However, there are rumors that he will be back sooner rather than later. Who knows how good they can be if Tatum comes back not too rusty?
7. Los Angeles Lakers
In my opinion, the Lakers are also one of the toughest teams in the league to rank. On one hand, they are tied for fifth in record (for the whole league), eighth in offensive rating, and we have seen Luka Doncic carry a not-so-great team to the finals. However, they are also 20th in defense, 14th in net rating, and 13th in SRS. I think this team has a very high ceiling because of Luka (and even LeBron on some nights), but to say their defense needs work would be an understatement.
6. San Antonio Spurs
After Victor Wembanyama got injured, I was expecting the Spurs to slip a ton. However, they went 9-3 in his absence, and in the game he came back, they beat the Thunder. Since De’Aaron Fox was traded to the Spurs, I have been dying to see how he and Wemby would play together. Hopefully, we see them play together for a long stretch of time now that both are healthy.
5. Detroit Pistons
Up next, we have one of the most impressive teams in the league. After going on a massive win streak at the beginning of the year, the Pistons went on a bit of a cold streak. However, they are now on a three-game win streak. Even though they are second in record, the thing that scares me is that they are fifth in net rating and seventh in SRS. Even though this is still great, it leads me to think they are probably not as good as their record indicates. But who knows, this is a young team that has plenty of time to improve as the year goes on.
4. New York Knicks
Even though the Knicks have a slightly worse record than the Pistons, I’d still take them nine times out of ten (you could probably convince me ten times out of ten) in a playoff series. They are 9-1 in their last 10, are second in offensive rating, fourth in net rating, and third in SRS. I do have some questions about their defense, but if they keep playing the way they have been, they should not have too big of a problem coming out of the East.
3. Houston Rockets
Even though the Rockets have been great for the most part to start the season, they had two brutal losses to the Jazz and Mavericks since the last rankings. Even though they were the two-seed last year and added Kevin Durant in exchange for two role players, I still question their ceiling because of their depth. However, if they keep playing the way they have been playing, I have no reason to believe they are conference finals contenders.
2. Denver Nuggets
I think we will see the two and three spots go back and forth constantly for the rest of the season as long as everyone stays healthy. Unsurprisingly, the Nuggets have looked awesome to start the season. They are third in record, first in offense, third in net rating, and second in SRS. They have a very below-average defense, which concerns me. However, Nikola Jokic has a good supporting cast, which is usually very scary for any team that has to play him in the playoffs.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
No surprises here. However, they did just lose in the conference finals of the NBA Cup to the Spurs. However, I think that has far more to do with things going well for the Spurs as opposed to the Thunder slipping.
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