Last Thursday, the NBA announced its All-Star starters. Of course, just like when any award or accolade is announced, there were a ton of arguments on social media.
Should Damian Lillard have gotten the nod as a starter? Or should it have been Donovan Mitchell? Jalen Brunson? Tyrese Maxey? Should LeBron James and Kevin Durant really be starters? Or should Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis start instead?
No matter how much you debate these topics, they do not matter. Not only are the decisions final, but at the end of the day, the players who were “snubbed” will almost certainly make the roster as a reserve anyway.
The debate for the reserves is far more complicated, especially for the end-of-the-bench guys. The rosters are constructed with two guards, three frontcourts, and two extra at any position. We will call those players “wild cards.”
Here is who I would pick as reserves if given the chance. Stats are accurate as of Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024.
Stats Glossary
Advanced Stats
BPM: Box Plus-Minus, or a “basketball box score-based metric that estimates a basketball player’s contribution to the team when that player is on the court,” according to Basketball Reference.
VORP: Value over Replacement Player, or BPM adjusted to how much value a player has based on how many minutes he played.
Win Shares: “A player statistic which attempts to divvy up credit for team success to the individuals on the team,” according to Basketball Reference.
PER: Player Efficiency Rating, a stat that calculates a player’s basic stats and puts them on a scale relative to the entire league. 15 is the league average.
On/Off: Plus/Minus Net per 100 possessions
Basic Stats
PPG: Points per game
RPG: Rebounds per game
APG: Assists per game
Honorable Mentions
Derrick White, Julius Randle, Jimmy Butler, Jarrett Allen, Paolo Banchero, Kyrie Irving, De’Aaron Fox, Lauri Markkanen, and Alperen Şengün
Eastern Conference
Guards: Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Brunson
This was a no-brainer for me. I thought Mitchell should have started over Lillard. Brunson would have been my third choice after Tyrese Haliburton and Mitchell. Among Eastern Conference guards, Mitchell and Brunson are both in the top three in BPM, VORP, PER, and PPG. They are also both leading their teams to top-five records in the East. Mitchell has only played in 34 games but has still led his team to wins just as much as the next guy. What is the point of selecting guys with fewer contributions over more games?
Frontcourt: Scottie Barnes, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis
This was debatably the toughest one to decide. All three of these guys have been fantastic this year. Though the Raptors are not winning a ton, Barnes has arguably been the only good player since OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam were traded. As for Porzingis and Brown, their advanced stats are not super strong, which is what tends to happen when you have such an elite team around you. Despite popular belief, you should not be punished for that. There were arguments to be made for Butler, but he has not played enough games to make up for his time lost. There were also arguments for Julius Randle and Jarrett Allen, but they’ve been slightly worse than Brown and Porzingis, especially in the last few weeks.
Wild Card: Tyrese Maxey and Trae Young
Picking Maxey was extremely easy but deciding the last spot was tougher. Maxey is averaging 25.7 PPG and 6.6 APG while ranking fifth amongst guards in BPM, fourth in VORP, and third in Win Shares. For the last spot, there were more than a few options. I considered the frontcourt “snubs,” but it truly came down to Young or Derrick White. Even though some of the advanced stats suggest White has been more impactful to his team and that Young is one of the worst defenders in the league, it is much harder to be a first option than a third or fourth option. If Young and White switch places, the Celtics would be a slightly worse team, but the Hawks become a very bad offense and would be a worse team even if White is the much better defender.
Western Conference
Guards: James Harden and Devin Booker
Picking the West guards was even harder than picking the East frontcourt because of how stacked the position is. It was between Harden, Booker, Stephen Curry, De’Aaron Fox, Anthony Edwards, and Kyrie Irving. To be honest, both almost missed the cut. Harden has had one of the most underrated seasons this year. He is only averaging 17.2 PPG and 8.6 APG but also has 11.45 on/off. For Booker, even though the Suns started cold, they have been much better lately. Booker currently has an 11.5 on/off.
Frontcourt: Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, and Domantas Sabonis
I think Davis and Leonard should be starting this game. As great as James and Durant have been, Davis and Leonard have been more impactful. The last spot was a little tougher. Lauri Markkanen and Alperen Şengün earned consideration, but Sabonis got the edge because he has been more well-rounded. Though he has fewer points per game, he averages more RBP, APG, field goal percentage, three-point percentage, BPM, and VORP. The Kings have been a slight disappointment this year, but not because of Sabonis or Fox.
Wild Card: Anthony Edwards and De’Aaron Fox
As mentioned, deciding between six guards for four spots was nearly impossible. I picked Edwards since it would be silly to not include any player from the Timberwolves. They have been at the top of the West all season long. Irving has only played 27 games, which is why he missed the cut. The reason that I chose Fox over Curry was because of his impact. It sounds silly to cut Curry because of impact, but believe it or not, he actually has a -6.8 on/off. You could be an extremely talented player, but if you’re statistically having a negative impact on a very bad team, I’m not sure if I could call you an All-Star.
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