We’re here! This is Part 1 of this year’s bi-weekly NBA Power Rankings.
The criteria of these rankings include, in no particular order:
- Team Record
- Net Rating (Point Differential Per 100 Possessions)
- SRS (Combination of Strength of Schedule and Net Rating)
- Sprinkle where teams are trending
For this week’s edition, since we are so early in the season, I emphasized team records slightly more than the advanced stats since they fluctuate so much at the beginning of the year.
Honorable Mentions
Chicago Bulls, Houston Rockets, Orlando Magic
10. Miami Heat
I was not expecting to put the Heat this high, but they are much better than I expected. They are 3-2, fourth in the East, and eighth in defense (according to defensive rating). I hesitated to put them this high because they are relatively high in SRS and Net Rating. However, given that they have found a way to win in the few games they played, I think they deserve a spot on the list. With this being said, I would be surprised if they were on the list many more times this season.
9. Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies entered the season as one of my favorite teams to watch. Though some have been ugly, they have found a way to win more often than not. They are 4-3, sixth in the West, and eighth in offense (according to offensive rating). What keeps them lower is the fact that they are pretty low in both SRS and defense. With this being said, I am fully expecting them to improve on their defense once the rust wears off, given that they have been pretty strong on defense when healthy the past couple of years.
Grizzlies PG duo this season:
Morant: Pippen:
20.0 PPG 11.0 PPG
5.2 RPG 3.1 RPG
9.8 APG 7.3 APG
45.3 FG% 50.0 FG%Most APG by a duo this season. pic.twitter.com/txUibOULEG
— NBA World (@NBAW0RLD24) November 3, 2024
8. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have had an awesome start to the season. They are 4-2, fifth in the West, fifth in offense, and 10th in SRS. I think the Lakers are one of the harder teams to rank because they have both a high ceiling and a low floor. If things are going like they are now, they have the potential to make it to the Western Conference Finals. However, there is a world where either LeBron James or Anthony Davis get hurt, or J.J. Redick begins to struggle with what certain rookie coaches usually do. This is something we will learn as the season goes on.
7. Dallas Mavericks
I predicted the Mavs to be one of the biggest disappointments in the league, but so far, they have not been. They are 4-2, fourth in the West, third in defense, and seventh in net rating. This is the complete opposite of how I expected the Mavericks to be. I would fully think a team of Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson would be filthy on offense but struggle on defense. However, it has been the complete opposite. Is this sustainable for the entire regular season? Maybe. However, I fully stand on my take that I think the Mavericks will be much more of a disappointment come playoff time.
6. New York Knicks
The Knicks have been about as good as I expected them to be so far. They are 3-2, third in the East, third in offense, fifth in net rating, and fourth in SRS. I am fully expecting them to continue to be as good for the rest of the year given how hardcore Tom Thibodeau is. What is their ceiling? I’m not entirely sure. This is another thing we will figure out as the season goes on.
Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns both nominated for NBA Eastern Conference Player of the Week
Brunson as Knicks went 2-1:
• 26.3 points
• 47.4% three
• 7 assistsTowns:
• 26 points
• 56.9% FG
• 61.5% three
• 11.3 rebounds pic.twitter.com/RfQtSC3Q9K— New York Basketball (@NBA_NewYork) November 4, 2024
5. Golden State Warriors
This is the best team compared to their expectations. The Warriors have been phenomenal to start the year despite missing Steph Curry for three games. They are 5-1, third in the West, fourth in offense, second in defense, first in net rating, and second in SRS. This rating might seem a little low given how dominant they have been on paper, but I do not believe their success is as sustainable as the teams above them, even with Curry returning.
4. Phoenix Suns
I expected the Suns to be much better this year than last year, but they have been on a whole other level. They are 5-1, third in the West, sixth in defense, eighth in net rating, and sixth in SRS. The reason I have them higher than their SRS and net rating is that they are grinding out tough wins against other great teams. This is something I expect to continue as the year goes on.
3. Boston Celtics
This is my second year doing bi-weekly power rankings. Last year, I never had the Celtics outside the top two. That trend ends today. Has their season been disappointing so far? I wouldn’t say so, unless you think anything worse than second is unacceptable (which is not entirely realistic or sustainable for two whole years). The Celtics are 6-1, second in the East, first in offense, fourth in net rating, and fifth in SRS. I would argue that the net rating and SRS are a little skewed lower given that the Celtics have had a couple of games where they rested their starters.
If there is one thing the Celtics need to improve, it is their defense. They are currently 13th in the league in this category. While overwhelming, first in defense can get you regular-season wins; defense still wins championships. With this being said, if a couple more things went their way against the Pacers in the overtime loss against them, I would probably have the Celtics first.
Record Predictions
Conference Finals
Thunder over Grizzlies in 7
Celtics over Bucks in 6Finals
Celtics over Thunder in 7 pic.twitter.com/uMGMKcXZ6h— Chris Driscoll NBA (@AmericanHooper) October 22, 2024
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
The two teams I have in the top two are the only two undefeated teams. Despite the absence of Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder have been phenomenal. They are second in net rating and first in the West, defense, and SRS. While there are teams in the West that could make some moves at the trade deadline or buyout market to compete with the Thunder, I am having a hard time believing there are many (if any) teams that could beat the Thunder as constructed.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Despite some of the numbers not being as strong as the Thunder, I think the Cavs have been the best team to start the season. They are first in the East, second in offense, fifth in defense, third in net rating, and third in SRS. I think what puts the Cavs over the Thunder is the context of their wins. They have not only grinded out some wins but also blown out a couple of the best teams. This has all been without Donovan Mitchell playing up to his potential (outside of his awesome game Saturday against the Bucks). While I do not think the Cavs will continue to be better than the Celtics and Thunder for the entire season, it wouldn’t necessarily be a big surprise.
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