We’re here! After one of the craziest regular seasons we have seen in a long time, the NBA playoffs are finally here. Similar to last year, many of these first-round matchups are somewhat unpredictable. Some great basketball will be played for the next couple of months.
Without further ado, here are my first-round predictions.
Eastern Conference
8 Heat vs. 1 Cavs
Well, what have we here? The Heat have somehow made their way back into the playoffs again. It seems like every year is the year that they’ll finally fall out. Erik Spoelstra just refuses to let it happen. Even after trading Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline, the Heat were able to squeak out two wins in the play-in tournament. With all this being said, I do not think much will come out of it. The Cavs have been a wagon all year long. All due respect to Erik Spoelstra, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro, but if they push this to six games, I would be flabbergasted.
Prediction: Cavs in 4
Congrats to Kenny Atkinson for being awarded the Michael H. Goldberg NBCA Coach of the Year Award by the National Basketball Coaches Association today!
No one deserves it more, Coach. #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/RSI1JQkCyX
— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) April 19, 2025
5 Bucks vs. 4 Pacers
A rematch of last year’s first-round matchup. The Bucks are, unfortunately, in a similar position as they were last year. Last year, Giannis Antetokounmpo did not play the entire series and Damian Lillard only played in four games. Lillard’s potential return this week is huge news for the Bucks.
The Pacers, on the other hand, have been relatively consistent all season long. In addition to this, Haliburton has been playing the best basketball of his career since the All-Star break. The only way that the Bucks win this series is if Antetokounmpo has at least three games where no one can stop him for the entire game, and if the Pacers have multiple nights where they can’t make a shot. All that said, we live in a basketball world now where you can’t win with just having a top-heavy roster. And outside of Antetokounmpo, the next three or four best players in the series are Pacers.
Prediction: Pacers in 6
6 Pistons vs. 3 Knicks
This might be the most fun matchup in the first round. Both teams have an All-Star point guard, both are tough, and both have dealt with injuries all season long. The Pistons have been without Jaden Ivey, who was supposed to be their second-best player, since the calendar flipped to 2025. The Knicks were without Mitchell Robinson for pretty much the whole season and only played 93 minutes with Jalen Brunson.
The biggest issue with the Knicks’ defense is that their two best players are both below average. By adding Robinson to the lineup, the Knicks can insert a new strategy. They can have Karl-Anthony Towns guard the centers and Robinson guard the worst shooter on the team.
The Pistons, on the other hand, will have to exploit the Knicks’ weaknesses by moving the basketball as much as they can. Cade Cunningham should be able to take advantage of a lot of these situations, but guys like Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Tobias Harris will need to hit their shots. In addition, Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart will need to do their best to contain Towns.
With all this being said, I think the Pistons are playing with house money while the Knicks were expected to be this good. I think the Knicks have the two best players, and they also have the better starting lineup. While I might not trust their “play all the starters 40-plus minutes every night” approach in the long run, I think that it should be enough for the first round.
Prediction: Knicks in 7
Cade Cunningham joins Oscar Robertson as the only players in NBA history to average 25+ PPG, 5+ RPG and 9+ APG at age 23 or younger.
Cade leads his #6 Pistons into Game 1 vs. the #3 Knicks tonight at 6:00pm/et on ESPN! pic.twitter.com/OnHdgXQoIr
— NBA (@NBA) April 19, 2025
7 Magic vs. 2 Celtics
The Magic and the Celtics have faced off three times this year, and the Magic snagged two of them. However, Jayson Tatum did not play in one of them, and the entire starting five did not play in the other. Even with Boston at full strength, I think the Magic will still give the Celtics a run for their money.
The Magic had the second-best defense for the entire season. People will say, “Well, they had Jalen Suggs earlier in the year.” However, they still had a top-five defense since the new year. Suggs only played one game during this stretch. Their offense, on the other hand, is 27th since the new year. However, for the entire season, their offense with their two stars, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, is 21st. It has improved over the year.
At the end of the day, though, I think the Celtics are too talented to lose to the Magic. Teams around .500 very rarely beat 60-win teams. Even if Tatum struggles or Jaylen Brown’s knee injury is more severe than anticipated, I expect them to win in other ways, outside of their two best players outplaying the Magic’s two best players.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
Western Conference
8 Grizzlies vs. 1 Thunder
The Grizzlies have had an eventful few weeks between firing their head coach, playing in a nail-biter play-in game with the Warriors, and beating the Mavericks in the fight for the No. 8 seed. They have overcome a ton, but at the end of the day, between the dysfunction, uncertainties with specific players, and how filthy the Thunder have been all season long, this does not seem like it will be a series. Maybe we get a game where Ja Morant looks like he is better than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander again or no one on the Thunder can hit a shot, but it would take a miracle for that to happen.
Prediction: Thunder in 4
5 Clippers vs. 4 Nuggets
This is going to be an awesome matchup. Both teams’ best players have established champions who, at their best, could be the best player on the court any given night.
While they have the same record, I do not think I could name two more opposite teams. The Nuggets have built their team the best they can (with the new salary cap and aprons) around their star player, and the Clippers have built a great roster from top to bottom. While the Nuggets have the best player in the series and home-court advantage, I am not sure if it is going to be enough. Between the Clippers’ defense, depth, and versatility, I am not sure if the Nuggets can win this series unless Jamal Murray plays like he did in 2023 again.
Prediction: Clippers in 6
6 Wolves vs. 3 Lakers
Here we have another extremely interesting matchup between two teams who could not be more different. On one side, we have the Lakers, who have two of the best offensive players in the league, surrounded by shooters and lengthy guys. While they do not have any solid rim protectors or point-of-attack defenders, their length and coaching maximize their defense as a whole.
The Wolves, on the other hand, have a super solid defense because of both their perimeter defense and rim protection. The combination of Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels has made teams’ offenses’ jobs hell for two years now. In addition, their offense has been mostly centered around one guy, rather than getting others involved. With all this being said, not only do I think that the Lakers have the two best players in the series, but I also think they have more ways to beat other teams. It will be hard-fought, but I think the Lakers make it to the next round.
LEBRON JAMES IN YEAR 22:
👑 24.4 PPG
👑 7.8 RPG
👑 8.2 APG
👑 51.3 FG%
👑 10 Triple-Doubles pic.twitter.com/J5OSq2tGf5— NBA (@NBA) April 18, 2025
Prediction: Lakers in 6
7 Warriors vs. 2 Rockets
This is one interesting matchup. In a way, it reminds me of the series in 2023 when the Warriors played the Kings. The Kings and the Rockets are opposite teams in terms of style, but in both years, the Warriors were a lower seed facing off against a younger team that surpassed expectations.
With this being said, I think that both the current Warriors and the Rockets are better than both teams.
The Rockets have a team where they can throw multiple guys at other teams’ best players. Amen Thompson is likely going to make First Team All-Defense, and Dillon Brooks is super solid as well. It’s why they have the fifth-best defense in the league. Looking elsewhere, they have been just about average on the offensive side of the ball. Though Alperen Sengun, Fred VanVleet, and Jalen Green have done a great job individually, together as a collective unit, they have been nothing special.
For years, the Warriors’ greatest strength has been beating other teams without being athletic. While there has been a lot of roster turnover, the main piece is still there: Stephen Curry. Not only is Curry still there, but so is their defensive anchor, Draymond Green. In addition to Curry and Green, they traded for one of the best playoff risers in the league, Jimmy Butler. And while their depth has its concerns, it seems as if everyone in the rotation knows how to play their roles.
I completely understand why Houston seems like it would be the smart pick given their consistency, but the playoffs are a different animal. At the end of the day, there is not a single player on the Rockets that I trust more than Curry, Butler, or Green.
Prediction: Warriors in 7
Conclusion
Here we go. While the first round is generally predictable, I’m not sure if that will be the case this year. We’ll just have to wait and see.
For more predictions, tune into last week’s episode of All American Hoops:
Main Image Credit:
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – JANUARY 17: Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics dribbles the ball to the basket against Trevelin Queen #12 of the Orlando Magic during the second quarter at the TD Garden on January 17, 2025 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images)
