It is always very hard to predict NBA awards because there are so many unpredictable factors to consider. Which players get hurt? Which players overachieve or underachieve? Which teams do better than expected?
Some awards are easier to pick, but it’s nearly impossible to get all of them right.
With this being said, here are my predictions for each award.
Coach of the Year: Darvin Ham
The Lakers were a completely different team by the end of last season. They finished as the seventh seed but finished off in the Western Conference Finals. I fully expect them to be a top-four seed in the West this season, though.
Even though Ham was not the best at X’s and O’s last year, according to many accounts, he is very good at getting players to buy into their roles. If the Lakers finish as among the West’s top four, I think he might be a front-runner to win the award.
Lakers coach Darvin Ham on NBA title fortunes: “I like our chances better than anybody. But it’s gonna be a fight.” pic.twitter.com/vwq6cH6FsY
— Mark Medina (@MarkG_Medina) October 20, 2023
Rookie of the Year: Victor Wembanyama
This one doesn’t need much of an explanation. Chet Holmgren is Wemby’s biggest competition, but I’m expecting Holmgren to be the third option on a team that will barely make the Play-In Tournament.
Wembanyama has no great teammates and will get the chance to dominate. Don’t be surprised if the Spurs ended up with a better record than the Thunder.
Most Improved Player: Franz Wagner
I’m not sure if there is a single person outside of the Magic organization and Wagner’s family that is as in on Wagner as I am. He is currently 15th in DraftKings betting odds for this award.
I think the Magic are going to overachieve and Wagner will be a huge reason why. I like a guy who plays almost every game and is well-rounded. If the Magic are as good as I think they will be, do not be surprised if Wagner is the guy.
Franz Wagner in the first quarter vs. NOP:
10 PTS
3 REB
2 AST
80% FG
2 3PM pic.twitter.com/Ls8E8edKE0— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) October 17, 2023
Sixth Man of the Year: Bobby Portis
Last year, Portis finished third in the Sixth Man of the Year voting behind Malcolm Brogdon and Immanuel Quickley. I think he will win it outright this year.
Even though Portis will be in the same position, his role will likely grow. The Blazers gave up a good amount of their depth to acquire Damian Lillard, so Portis will be carrying a bigger load off the bench. I think he is more than capable of leading the second unit, which will take some of the pressure off the likes of Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Defensive Player of the Year: Evan Mobley
Mobley is talked about as one of the better defenders in the league by some, but not a lot. That changes this season.
Many people (myself included) expect the Cavs as a whole to take another jump. I think both Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland continue to play super solid offense, and Mobley will lead the Cavs to be a top-three defense once again.
Most Valuable Player: Jayson Tatum
This is the year Tatum gets his respect. Brad Stevens went all-in to make this Celtics team the best he can, but it will not matter unless Tatum takes another jump to the MVP level. The Celtics are currently tied with the Bucks as Finals favorites.
It does not happen too often that a player with a great supporting cast wins the award, but I think Tatum will play well enough to the point where voters do not care about his surroundings. I fully expect Tatum to take another jump and win that MVP award.
we love the work cause we love the game pic.twitter.com/LLwNe2T7iC
— Boston Celtics (@celtics) October 22, 2023
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