Villanova over Georgetown. UMBC downing Virginia. Middle Tennessee State dumping Michigan State. Upsets are what put the madness into March Madness, and that’s why they are so beloved by the masses.
People will always embrace a Cinderella tale, whether it’s the 1980 United States hockey team winning the Olympic gold medal at the expense of the mighty Big Red Machine of the Soviet Union, or Joe Namath, quarterback of the 18-point underdog New York Jets, guaranteeing victory over the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III and then delivering on that promise.
Upsets take on a life of their own. However, whether you’re a recreational picker filling out a bracket, or a professional gambler wagering on the games when seeking to predict the outcome of who will win March Madness, it’s unwise to try to live large off of upsets. Overplaying the underdog card will only cause your investment to crash and burn.
That being said, there are going to be upsets, so you’ve got to pick some along the way. When do upsets happen? How many upsets will there be?
Gaining this level of knowledge can only help when filling out your bracket, or placing that next wager. Fortunately, that information is out there and can be researched by those willing to painstakingly put in the time and effort. Even better for you, we’ve already done the math, so read on and find out when is the best time to count on there being an upsetting experience during March Madness.
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Don’t Count On Higher-Seeded Team
We all root for the no-hoper. Face it, you would’ve never sat through five Rocky films if Rocky Balboa was a heavily-favored juggernaut. Underdogs are romantic. They’re the little guys who could make big history. We see more of us in them than we do in powerhouses like Duke or Kentucky. That’s what made the 2018 accomplishment of the University of Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers such a compelling tale. The No. 16 seed, UMBC took the court as 20.5-point underdogs to the top-seeded Virginia Cavaliers and beat the Cavs by 20 points.
It marked the first time in NCAA men’s basketball tournament history that a 1-16 matchup had gone to No. 16. Prior to that game, the one seeds were 135-0. They went 4-0 again in 2019, so the overall is now 139-1. That’s a 0.71 percent chance of success for the 16th-seeded schools. So it’s kind of like the passing of Haley’s Comet. It’s going to happen, but only once or twice in your lifetime.
The folks at NCAA.com crunched the numbers for each NCAA Tournament since 1985 when the 64-team field was introduced to the competition. Over that time frame, eight times a 15 seed has beaten the two seed. That works out to a 5.7 percent chance of occurring.
On 21 occasions, the 14 seed has gotten the better of the three seed. That’s a 15 percent success rate. There have been 29 games when the 13th-seeded team emerged victorious over the No. 4 seed ( 21.7 percent).
When the calculations get to the 12-5 matchup, things start to look more promising in terms of upsets. The 12-seed has won 50 games (35.7 percent). That number jumps to 37.1 percent in 11-4 games (52 victories).
The 10 has toppled the No. 7 seed in 55 games (39.3 percent). That’s almost a 4-in-10 chance of the upset occurring.
When To Play March Madness Upsets?
The first round tends to offer the most shocking outcomes in the NCAA Tournament, but that shouldn’t be surprising. You’ve got top seeds that are feeling the jitters as the tourney gets underway, facing higher-seeded teams for whom getting to March Madness was their biggest victory of the season.
There have been 6.1 first-round upsets per year since 1985. That number gets lower with each passing round – second (3.6), Sweet 16 (1.7), Elite Eight (0.5), and Final Four (0.2).
How Many Upsets Should You Play?
Nothing destroys a bracket like an upset. That being said, upsets are going to happen, so they must be included in any bracket. The question is, how many upsets should you be counting on? Research shows that NCAA Tournament upsets average out to 12.7 per year. The high-water mark was 20 in 2014, while the 2007 tourney saw a low of four upsets.
In 28 of the last 35 March Madness competitions, total upsets ranged between 10-16.
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