In the offseason, the Detroit Lions underwent several massive changes. The most significant change was shipping off franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for Jared Goff and several draft picks. After trading Stafford, the Lions decided against using the franchise tag on wide receiver Kenny Golladay. He would sign with the New York Giants in free agency. However, he wouldn’t be the only Lions wide receiver to leave in the offseason. After their massive changes this offseason, let’s take a look at what fantasy players can expect from the Lions this season.
Make sure to check out all of our other 2021 Fantasy Football Previews.
Quarterbacks – Jared Goff
There is a simple reason why the Rams traded away Goff: he isn’t very good. However, last year was the first time in Goff’s career since his rookie season, where he failed to finish as a top-13 quarterback. Part of that success was the Sean McVay offense, and part was the weapons around him. Now, in Detroit, Goff will have neither at his disposal. Last season, Goff had only 20 passing touchdowns and averaged 7.2 yards per attempt, both the lowest of his career since his rookie season. Furthermore, since the Rams’ Super Bowl run in 2018, Goff has averaged 15.7 fantasy points per game with a 1.5 touchdown to interception ratio.
The only positive note for Goff this season is all the negative game script he should find himself in. The Lions project to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. Thanks to an awful defense, Goff should have plenty of opportunities to chase points and provide some value for fantasy owners. In single quarterback leagues, Goff isn’t someone you should draft. However, in super flex or two quarterback leagues, Goff is an excellent QB3 for your team.
Running Backs – D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams
Swift will be the focal point of the offense, thanks to a lack of receiving weapons. More importantly, the addition of Anthony Lynn as the offensive coordinator is a dream come true for Swift’s fantasy owners. During his four years with the Los Angeles Chargers, the running backs averaged 22.8 rushing attempts and 9.8 targets per game. Furthermore, the running backs averaged 30.2 fantasy points per game with Lynn. Meanwhile, the Lions running backs averaged 27.3 touches per game last season. However, Kerryon Johnson and Adrian Peterson, who combined to average 15 touches per game, are no longer with the team. Replacing them is Williams, who has averaged 10.4 touches per game for his career.
During his rookie year, Williams had a career-high in touches in 11.1 per game. Even if he averages 15 per game this season, Swift will still finish as a top-five back. If Williams received 15 of the 32.6 touches per game Lynn has given running backs over the last four years, Swift would average 17.6 touches per game. Based on his 1.2 fantasy point per touch average last season, Swift would average 21.1 fantasy points per game with those 17.6 touches. If Swift averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game, he would have finished as the RB4 on a per-game basis. To help Swift out, the Lions used their first-round pick on Penei Sewell, improving their offensive line. It shouldn’t be surprising if Swift finishes as the overall RB1 this season.
Even if he sticks around his 10.4 touches per game average for his career, Williams has value in most fantasy leagues. For his career, Williams has averaged 0.85 fantasy points per touch. However, over the last two seasons, Williams has picked up his play, averaging 0.92 fantasy points per touch. At that fantasy point per touch rate, Williams would average just under 10 fantasy points per game on 10.4 touches per game. Over a 16 game pace, Williams would have finished last season as the RB31 at that fantasy point per touch and touch per game pace. Furthermore, Swift missed three games last year because of injury. If Swift misses time in 2021, Williams turns into a plug and play RB1 in the Lions’ run-heavy offense.
Wide Receivers – Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, Breshad Perriman
Last season Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola, Mohamed Sanu, and Jamal Agnew combined for 172 catches on 260 targets. All five receivers will play elsewhere in 20201. To replace them, the Lions signed Williams and Perriman. Despite seven picks in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Lions only used one on a pass-catcher; St. Brown. He will be the starting slot receiver come Week 1. Reports are St. Brown has shined in training camp so far. Furthermore, he has been the best and most consistent receiver in camp. Given Goff’s history with throwing to his slot receiver, Cooper Kupp, in Los Angeles, expect St. Brown to turn into a target machine as a rookie. Fantasy players should feel confident with St. Brown as their WR3.
The veteran duo of Williams and Perriman have combined for 108 catches on 194 targets in 40 games over the last two seasons. Furthermore, Perriman has one season in his career with 70 or more targets, while Williams hasn’t played since 2019. Each of the veterans has had their moments in the NFL. Williams averaged 13.6 fantasy points per game in 2016 when Keenan Allen missed the season. Meanwhile, Perriman averaged 21.2 fantasy points per game over his final five games in 2019. Williams is a late-round option given his mild success as the No. 1 wide receiver in the past. Furthermore, Perriman has been working with the second-team offense this offseason, while Williams has been working with the first team.
One player who should be getting more attention is Cephus. The second-year pro was a fifth-round pick last year and is partly the reason why the Lions only used one draft pick on a wide receiver this year. Last season, Cephus averaged only 5.1 fantasy points per game, in large part because he averaged only 2.7 targets per game. However, in the four games Cephus scored more than 5.1 fantasy points, he averaged five targets and 10.8 fantasy points per game. Cephus has been working with the first-team offense this offseason and could turn into a late-round target if he plays well in the preseason and earns a starting role.
Tight Ends – T.J. Hockenson
Other than St. Brown, the Lions lack weapons in the passing game. Last season, Hockenson broke out catching 67 of his 101 targets for 723 yards, six touchdowns, and 11 fantasy points per game. Hockenson finished second on the team in every category, only behind Jones. However, with the dramatic changes at wide receiver, Hockenson is in line for a monster 2021 season. Last year, Hockenson finished fourth in catches among tight ends. While Darren Waller and Travis Kelce finished with over 100 catches each, Hockenson was only six catches away from finishing third. However, with the lack of weapons around him, Hockenson is in a prime position to lead all tight ends in catches this season and potentially finish as a top-three tight end.
Defense/Special Teams
Last season, the Lions D/ST finished as the worst scoring D/ST, averaging only 1.7 fantasy points per game. They finished last in the NFL with 12 turnovers and the bottom six in sacks with 24. In the offseason, the Lions re-signed Romeo Okwara after he had 10 sacks in 2020. The Lions then used three Day 2 draft picks on defense, selecting defensive linemen Levi Onwuzurike and Alim McNeill plus cornerback Ifeatu Melifonwu. They also traded for defensive linemen Michael Brockers and cornerback Quinton Dunbar. However, despite all the additions made this offseason, there is no reason to draft the Lions D/ST.
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