Mike Fanelli | January 18th, 2020
After 19 weeks of football, we are down to the final four. The six seed Tennessee Titans and two seed Kansas City Chiefs will battle to represent the AFC while the one seed San Francisco 49ers and two seed Green Bay Packers will battle to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 54. Both games are rematches from the regular season with the Titans and 49ers pulling out the victory. Will the outcomes be the same Sunday? We shall see.
To recap last week, Mike struggled, going 1-3 ATS as the Titans’ outright win was the only game he predicted correctly. He also went 1-3 on his over/unders as the Chiefs scored 51 points by themselves, easily letting Mike hit the over 51 in that game against the Texans. However, he did go 2-1 on his favorite bets as the Titans were leading outright to end the first quarter and Lamar Jackson had 143 rushing yards, nearing doubling his prop bet total at 77.5 yards. In total, Mike went 4-7 (36.4%) on his 11 bets from last week.
Unfortunately, Gio is out again this week so to make up for it Mike will also give his take on the over/under for both games Sunday. Remember, Mike is not a professional better nor knows everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the games so let’s see how he does this week.
Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions. All bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
|
Spread |
Game |
Over/Under |
|
Titans +7.5 |
Titans +7.5 at Chiefs |
Under 53 |
|
Packers +7.5 |
Packers +7.5 at 49ers |
Over 46.5 |
Favorite Spread Bet
Titans +4.5 at Chiefs in the first half (-114)
I’ll be honest, I don’t feel good betting any of the spreads in either game this week. However, I think the Titans keep this game close, especially in the first half. Behind Derrick Henry, the Titans have done a good job controlling the clock so far in the playoffs. In order to have a chance at winning this game, the Titans will need to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline. In their matchup in early November, Henry rushed for 188 yards and the Titans rushed for 225 yards as a team. I expect the Chiefs to struggle to slow down the running game, especially in the first half, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Titans had the lead at halftime but I’ll take the +4.5 just to be safe.
Favorite Over/Under Bet
Packers at 49ers over 7.5 in the first quarter (-121)
The Packers and 49ers are two of the better first quarter teams this season. Both teams scored a touchdown in their playoff game last week and I expect the same this week. During the regular season, the Packers averaged 6.1 points per game in the first quarter while scoring seven or more nine times. Meanwhile, the 49ers averaged 6.6 points per game in the first quarter while scoring seven or more 10 times during the regular season. When these two teams faced off in late November the total at the end of the first quarter was 10 points. This is easily my favorite bet this week.
Favorite Prop Bet
Allen Lazard to score a touchdown (+500)
Usually, I like props with a poorer payout because they tend to hit, but this week I have a gut feeling with this one. The 49ers have done a good job slowing down number one wide receivers this season, in large part because of Richard Sherman. However, Emmanuel Moseley and especially Ahkello Witherspoon on the other side have been repeatedly targeted by quarterbacks this season. Last week against the Vikings, Witherspoon gave up a deep ball touchdown to Stefon Diggs. I expect Rodgers to take similar deep shots this week with Lazard. For anyone who wants to risk a few bucks on a super long shot, you can get Lazard to score two or more touchdowns at +6,600.
Questions and comments?
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