The Seattle Mariners currently sit in second place in the AL West, trailing the white-hot Oakland Athletics by one game with a 12-8 record. This is a team that went 27-33 last year and infamously has not made the playoffs since 2001. Currently in a rebuild, no one expected a hot start from Seattle but they have given their fans one. When you look at the numbers, a lot of personal performances have been either underwhelming or below-average. So, what gives?
Depending on the Hot Bats
Of the nine main offensive starters for the Mariners, only three have an OPS+ eclipsing 100 so far. Leaning on three batters is not a good strategy, but it has helped Seattle keep up in the standings. Entering Friday night’s game, the trio of Mitch Haniger, Ty France, and Jose Marmolejos have combined for 37 runs batted in, while the rest of the team has 41 combined. That includes Kyle Seager, who is tied for second on the team with 12 RBIs. Seager has been an interesting case thus far; he has just a .631 OPS and a 84 OPS+, but there are signs towards that being bad luck.
The elder Seager brother has a 25.9 percent line-drive rate. That is pretty good, as it is higher than the team’s OPS runner-up, Haniger. It may not compare to France’s 45.8 percent rate, but that is highly unsustainable. Seager is also third on the team with a barrel percentage of 13 percent, with a 51 percent hard-hit rate. He has an expected batting average of .253 and an xSLG of .491, which would be much better than his actual numbers of .224 and .408, respectively. Seager has shown that he could be added to that “big-three”.
France has been the star of the lineup so far, hitting .296 with a .886 OPS, a 168 OPS+. His xBA and xSLG are somehow even higher than his actual numbers. This seems like a surprise, but it should not be to anyone who closely watched France play last year. Splitting time between the Mariners and Padres (whom he was acquired from at the trade deadline) in 43 games last year, France had a .305 average with a .836 OPS. Once again, some of his stats (especially the line-drive rate) seem unsustainable, but there are reasons to believe that France could just be a good hitter.
Keeping Games Close
It is a much better strategy to keep games close than to win in blowouts and lose in blowouts. Of Seattle’s 20 games this year, half of them have ended in one-run games. All but one have come in their recent 9-4 stretch, where the Mariners have a 5-4 record in one-run games. So, even when they have lost, they have not lost by much. Staying in close games has helped the Mariners specifically because…
A Surprisingly Good Back-End of the Bullpen
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m60dWBQwqWs]
Most thought that the Mariners bullpen would be bottom-three in the league this year. Not to jump to conclusions, but it has been pretty well so far. The back-end, at the very least. Former high-leverage relievers Keynan Middleton and Drew Steckenrider have struggled, but the rest has been very good.
New closer Rafael Montero has allowed three runs on the season but in 10 1/3 innings (2.61 ERA) while converting three save opportunities. Montero was also credited with the win in the come back victory on Thursday. He has been productive, but it is the next four pitchers who have contributed the most. The quartet of Kendall Graveman, Will Vest, Casey Sadler, and Anthony Misiewicz have combined to allow just three earned runs in 33 1/3 innings, for a 0.81 ERA.
Of that group, only Sadler has had a successful season in the bullpen before, which came in 2019 when he had a 2.14 ERA in 33 games for Tampa Bay and the Dodgers. Perhaps the most impressive player so far on the team has been Vest, a 25-year-old Rule-5 pick. He is doing his best to make sure the Tigers did not perfectly run the Rule-5 draft after selecting Akil Baddoo. In a bullpen-leading 10 2/3 innings pitched, Vest has allowed just one earned run, with five hits and eight strikeouts.
More Help Could Be On The Way
The Mariners may have lost James Paxton for the season with Tommy John surgery, but there are some positive pieces of injury news regarding the team. Their 2020 highlight, American League Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis has just returned from the injured list, though he is just 2-for-12 in the early going. Shed Long, a regular infielder last year, is also close to returning from a shin injury that has kept him out for all of this season. Lastly, Jake Fraley, who walked eight times and hit a home run in five games earlier this year, could return from a hamstring strain by the end of the month. Fraley hit 19 home runs with a .910 OPS in the minors in 2019.
There is still a very good chance that fans will look back on the current state of the Mariners in a few weeks, and laugh at their optimism. But a good start still counts, and there are things to look up to for Seattle fans early this season.
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