The first 18 picks in the 2021 NFL Draft are set. With that said, the team needs are becoming abundantly clear, and with a great quarterback class, some teams could look radically different. Moreover, this is not a trade heavy mock draft and only has one trade at the end. The order is based on the website Tankathon, which uses the strength of schedule (SOS) and up to date records to determine the draft order.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Lawrence is a generational prospect and will be the first overall pick unless a crash happens. He’s the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck and may flip the fortunes for the Jaguars franchise.
2. New York Jets – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Fields is still QB2 on my Big Board. He is the embodiment of the next generation of stars coming into the NFL, bolstering serious running capability and tremendous arm talent.
3. Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans) – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Imagine trading an elite tackle only to find the replacement in the draft a year later and then also get an additional pick out of it. While tackle isn’t the biggest need, it improves two spots of the offensive line. The Dolphins can move Robert Hunt into right guard, where he’ll get more help in pass protection and have Sewell at right tackle. Overall, Sewell has a chance to be one of the best tackles in the game.
4. Atlanta Falcons – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
The Falcons will have a new General Manager and Head Coach, meaning this pick could go one of two ways. 1. The pick is safe and high ceiling (maybe a defender), which would allow the Falcons to improve right away. 2. Or the pick is geared for the future in finding replacements for Matt Ryan.
Wilson is worthy of the first overall pick if Lawrence and Fields weren’t in this draft class. He’s got mobility, arm talent, and a great ability to read the field.
You can read our scouting report on Wilson here.
5. Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
The objective of the Bengals offseason has to be increasing the support for Joe Burrow. So through free agency, they can pick up a guard (Andrew Wylie), and finding more defensive pieces. Overall, this pick puts the Bengals in an extremely difficult position as there is no other tackle worth a top ten pick unless you take Christian Darrisaw. However, Ja’Marr Chase is in a different category of playmakers and instantly increases the firepower of this offense. To put it in perspective, Chase was better than Justin Jefferson on the field and statistically. He isn’t the same profile of receiver but has a similar upside – a dynamic receiver capable of taking an offense to the next level.
You can read our scouting report on Chase here.
6. Philadelphia Eagles – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
It is evident from past drafts that Howie Roseman does not value linebackers similar to other teams even though the team needs to get better at that position. With that said, the cornerback class has some talent at the top, in Caleb Farley and Patrick Surtain.
Farley’s profile might align better for the Eagles than Surtain, but with Jim Schwartz not coaching the defense in 2021 they could look for a different profile. All in all, Farley’s traits and athleticism give him a higher ceiling than Surtain.
7. Detroit Lions – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
This is also a concerning position for the Lions as the cap situation is not good. They do not have the capital to re-sign Kenny Golladay, yet their defense struggled all year. Similar to the Falcons they could opt to pick the next quarterback of the future if they want, but the drop-off from Wilson to Trey Lance/others is significant. Thus, the team goes with a dynamic player in Parsons.
Parsons is a run and chase linebacker who is the next breed of speed linebackers who can cover and get sideline to sideline quickly. Ideally, he’s still getting better at play recognition and would benefit from a year of playing at outside linebacker – run and chase and then move to middle linebacker.
8. Carolina Panthers – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
Parsons was the best fit for Carolina as no other linebacker has the ceiling he does. As well, there is no quarterback worth picking here. Pitts is the best remaining player and the last of the top-tiered players. He is the kind of tight end that changes an offense, as he’ll draw double teams, mismatches, and make ridiculous plays.
9. Denver Broncos – Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
The Broncos desperately need help at corner and Surtain is best available. He’s a sure tackler and is someone who could be very successful in a scheme with good safety play. Overall, Surtain is the ideal corner, with great length, technique, and physicality. However, he lacks deep speed and may give up big plays at an inopportune time.
10. Dallas Cowboys – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
The Cowboys’ biggest need is corner help to pair with Trevon Diggs. Horn is a nice fit in the Cowboys defense, as he can lock up and play press. The only thing he lacks is being a threat to generate turnovers, which is something the Cowboys typically look for in their cornerbacks.
11. New York Giants – Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, and Sterling Shepard are not enough to help Daniel Jones make the jump to a franchise quarterback, the team must give him more weapons. Enter Bateman, a clone of Allen Robinson who excels in all levels of the field. He’s a chain mover and has a legitimate chance to be the best wide receiver on the team by the end of the season. Bateman is the pick over Davonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle for his profile. He’s a larger target and one of the best contested-catch receivers in the class.
You can read our scouting report on Bateman here.
12. San Francisco 49ers – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota
Lance is a very raw prospect who needs multiple years before he’s ready to take over. However, his pocket mobility, rushing threat, and his ability to make spectacular plays is something Kyle Shanahan can make into a franchise quarterback. Lance fits the mold for the Niners’ scheme, as he’s comfortable throwing the ball on the move and capable of extending plays.
13. Los Angeles Chargers – Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
Darrisaw has put up quality performances all year, to the point where he should be considered in the top 20. Darrisaw has the agility and mobility to become a franchise tackle. As well, his pass blocking technique is notability advanced and should allow him to take on edge defenders one on one.
14. Minnesota Vikings – Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
Vikings were really good on paper at edge rusher at the beginning of the season. Yet the departure of Yannick Ngakoue and injury to Danielle Hunter severely hampered the defense and its ability to get to the passer. While the offensive line might be considered a greater priority, Kwity Paye could allow the Minnesota defense to return to its elite form.
Paye’s ascension this year was significant as he showed multiple pass-rushing moves, the ability to bend the end and flatten, rush with power, and use his hands, all of which makes him a candidate to be the first edge off the board.
15. New England Patriots – DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Patriots need any sort of weapon, anybody that can catch a football. Smith is a very reliable receiver – showing great form and concentration while catching the ball. Yet, he gets his value from his ability to separate, manipulate defenders, and his nuanced route-running ability is top-notch in this year’s draft.
16. Arizona Cardinals – Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Etienne might be the only running back worth a top 40 selection, largely due to the home run threat ability and pass-catching ability. With his speed and contact balance, nobody is better suited for this offense. This is mainly because the offense is predicated on side-to-side movement with lots of run-pass-options – thus allowing more home-run opportunities from the bigger holes.
17. Las Vegas Raiders – Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
Slater has positional value, making him a great fit for the Raiders who always have injuries on the line as well as underperforming pieces. On the interior, Denzelle Good has been an average guard and Richie Incognito is 37, where Trent Brown needs a solid back up due to the injuries.
You can read our scouting report on Slater here.
18. Miami Dolphins – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Dolphins get a receiver that has a rapport with Tua Tagovailoa. Waddle is going to dominate at the combine with his speed and quickness. What sets him apart is his run after catch ability and short-area quickness. He consistently makes defenders miss and should command a large target share in this offense.
19. Washington Football Team – Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
Arguably, Cosmi is the offensive tackle with the highest upside (aside from Sewell), largely due to his mobility skills. Cosmi could be the next franchise tackle for the team.
20. Chicago Bears – Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
With Allen Robinson hitting free agency and few tackles remaining worth a first-round pick, the Bears go with Marshall. Marshall’s floor is a speed guy similar to Darnell Mooney, however, his ceiling is a dominant receiver for any team. His size, speed, and ability make him similar to D.J. Chark.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars (via Los Angeles Rams) – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Multiple options here for the Jaguars, they could go with tackle, but it is a tier below. Yet, the run of three receivers in the last five picks forces them to get the last receiver worth a first-round pick. His ability to separate, run nuanced routes, and be a reliable pass-catcher will drive him to be a first-round pick. Additionally, getting a third good receiver will allow the passing offense to support Lawrence.
22. Indianapolis Colts – Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
Colts love to have guys who can play multiple positions on the defensive line. Rousseau has versatility and gets pressure from all positions on the line. He’s typically seen going before the 20s, however, he’s very raw and not NFL ready at all. It might take a year or two before we see him get consistent pressure.
23. Cleveland Browns – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
This pick isn’t new, but it is by far the biggest need the Browns have. The Browns are still missing the dynamic linebacker who can get side to side. Owusu-Koramoah has been a huge riser throughout the draft process and can improve this defense significantly.
You can read our scouting report on Owusu-Koramoah here.
24. Tennessee Titans – Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
Tennessee needs to generate more pressure from the edge and Ojulari fits the profile for them. He’s a 3-4 pass rusher who can rush from a two-point stance and with his hand in the dirt. The most impressive thing is his ability to rush with a plan and utilize his wide array of pass-rushing moves.
You can read our scouting report on Ojulari here.
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
The Buccaneers need another defensive tackle as Ndamukong Suh will most likely be departing in free agency. This is a project pick, as Barmore has shown flashes, but just needs to put it all together. Vita Vea and Barmore would make an unstoppable pairing and would provide more opportunities to the edge rushers by generating interior pressure.
26. Baltimore Ravens – Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas
Ossai fits the Matt Judon mold of someone who can set the edge on runs, and also who bolsters pass rush potential. Ossai has significant upside and has the chance to be a dominant force on this defensive line with his strength and bevy of pass-rushing moves.
27. New York Jets (Seattle Seahawks) – Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
Ideally, there is a receiver here that could pair with Denzel Mims and provide Justin Fields another option. Yet with the run on receivers, it isn’t worth it to go to the next tier when there is still a premier tight end available. Freiermuth’s draft stock may suffer due to the poor performance of the team, yet he’s excellent in all aspects of the position. He’s an excellent blocker, has great body control and catching ability, but he also has great run after catch ability, making him a weapon for the offense.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers – Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/OG, USC
Vera-Tucker has positional versatility, where he could easily slot into left tackle or guard. The Steelers need to have more depth and a player with the potential to slot in almost anywhere.
29. New Orleans Saints – Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
Marshon Lattimore is set to depart in free agency after the 2021 season, and the Saints salary cap is currently among the worst in the league. Additionally, the team has to get better across from Lattimore for this season and improve the 32-year-old Janoris Jenkins spot. Campbell is raw compared to his teammate Eric Stokes but has more upside.
30. Buffalo Bills – Trey Smith IOL, Tennessee
Smith is a people mover and would fit nicely on the right side to pair with Cody Ford. He has a high ceiling, as we’ve seen extremely dominant play from him, but injuries have plagued his college career.
31. Green Bay Packers – Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
Bolton makes sense over Zaven Collins for a few reasons, better in pass coverage and more instinctive. Arguably he’s going to be better in zone coverage, however, he might not be as good as Colins rushing the passer. Overall, Bolton is a well-rounded player who has the potential to be a star of a defense. He’s also an explosive athlete who is a sure tackler.
32. Kansas City Chiefs – Zaven Collins, LB
Colins could end up being the best linebacker in the class with his tools and athleticism. He has work to do in coverage though, as this is his biggest barrier to him becoming an elite linebacker.
Round 2
33. Jacksonville Jaguars – Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
Jaguars need someone who can hold their own against bigger receivers. Stokes isn’t a great scheme fit, but the Jaguars desperately need to get better at the cornerback spot.
34. New York Jets – Alex Leatherwood, OT/G, Alabama
Leatherwood fits in nicely here, he can play guard or tackle in year one and make the full-time transition to right tackle in year two.
35. Atlanta Falcons – Jayson Oweh, EDGE Penn State
Marlon Davidson was a difficult scheme fit for the team last year, moreover, Dante Fowler has not had success. While the ideal pick would be finding a successor to Julio Jones, there is a lack of receivers here. Oweh is all upside at this point but could be dominant if he develops some consistency.
36. Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans) – Carlos Basham Jr. EDGE, Wake Forest
Basham is a decent scheme fit, he’s strong enough to rush from the interior, and can play wide nine or seven tech with his quickness. He would go a long way to make this one of the most dominant fronts in the NFL.
37. Philadelphia Eagles – Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami
Jordan is a freakish athlete for his size. With Ertz likely headed to free agency, the Eagles need a replacement, as they run lots of two tight end sets. Jordan isn’t going to be a high volume catch guy like Ertz, but he can make explosive plays and has high upside.
38. Cincinnati Bengals – Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan
It worked out for the Bengals who risked not going offensive tackle in the first round. They are able to get Mayfield who will slide in nicely at right tackle. Mayfield is inconsistent, but with NFL experience and coaching could be a solid right tackle.
39. Carolina Panthers – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
The Panthers are the right team to take on Desmond Ridder, however, he has officially opted to return to school. The next best option is going with Jones who can compete with Teddy Bridgewater for the starting spot. Jones has played extremely well, showing he can extend plays and be accurate. His best trait is his intelligence and ability to go through his progression, a good skill with this receiving core.
40. Denver Broncos – Myjai Sanders, EDGE, Cincinnati
Sanders has a lot of upside and would stand to learn a great deal from Von Miller. This pick is made with the belief that Miller is back, as Sanders needs to develop his run defending and polish his pass-rushing skill set before he becomes a full-time starter.
41. Detroit Lions – Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
Moore has the highest upside remaining in this crop of receivers. He’s an explosive player with significant run after catch skills. However, his route running is unpolished and overall he will require some development before reaching his high ceiling.
You can read our scouting report on Moore here.
42. New York Giants – Creed Humphrey, C, Oklahoma
Tough pick as an edge rusher is the top need for the Giants, but there aren’t any that fit the scheme. The best remaining player is Humphrey who could significantly improve the interior offensive line. Humphrey is the top center in this draft and is a well-rounded player.
43. San Francisco 49ers – Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford
Adebo could be the successor to Sherman with his good ball skills and strong zone coverage skills. Niners have needs on the offensive line, but the remaining tackles lack mobility and athleticism to fit the Shannahan scheme.
44. Dallas Cowboys – Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State
Radunz wouldn’t need to start right away and can develop behind the current offensive line. Cowboys need to start thinking long term successor to Tyron Smith. Radunz has the potential to be great. The level of competition has been the only concern.
45. Jacksonville Jaguars (via Minnesota Vikings) – Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse
Cisco goes over Trevon Moehrig-Woodard due to the ball skills. Cisco also has more range on tape. If Cisco didn’t suffer a season-ending lower leg injury he would be a fringe first-rounder. Moreover, Cisco stock will be dependent on the combine and how healthy he is.
46. New England Patriots – Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
The Patriots need to have a replacement for Cam Newton if he can’t play better. Trask had a great year till his final game. The consensus is wide on what Trask will be in the NFL. However, he is worth taking the shot on in the second round.
You can read our scouting report on Trask here.
47. Los Angeles Chargers – Wyatt Davis, IOL, Ohio State
Davis falls due to somewhat of a disappointing season, as some analysts (including me) hyped him up to be a top 20 player. He has a chance to improve his stock during the National Championship.
48. Las Vegas Raiders – Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
The irony here is that the Raiders took Damon Arnette in the first round last year, and he has played incredibly poorly. Wade could be the replacement.
49. Arizona Cardinals – Asante Samuel Jr. CB, Florida State
The Cardinals need to retool the secondary and think about life after Patrick Peterson who may depart in free agency.
50. Miami Dolphins – Chazz Surratt, LB, North Carolina
Surratt has range and can get side to side quickly. He would pair nicely with Jerome Baker.
51. Washington Football Team – Hunter Long, TE, Boston College
Washington needs to find someone to play quarterback however, with Ridder going back to school, Washington will look to free agency or trade. The pick is then looking for a weapon and Long fits the bill. Long has been overshadowed by the top three tight ends but has played extremely well. Pairing him with Logan Thomas would give the team two versatile tight ends.
52. Chicago Bears – Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
No quarterbacks left leaves the Bears going offensive line. Bears have the option to cut Charles Leno and save 6 Million, thus they will likely need to address the line. Eichenberg is pro-ready, however, there are some athleticism concerns that could limit his ceiling.
53. Los Angeles Rams – Hamilcar Rashed Jr., EDGE, Oregon State
Rashed could be a great pass rusher if he develops properly. He’s got the tools to be good but is inconsistent.
54. Cleveland Browns – Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami
Philips has lots of concerns – injury mainly. However, his play on the field is undeniable and he has a lot of upside if he can stay healthy.
55. Tennessee Titans – Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa
Nixon is a late riser in the draft process, but his pass-rushing upside is undeniable. He rushes with a plan and can win with quickness.
56. Indianapolis Colts – Brady Christensen, OT, BYU
Anthony Castonzo has been injured more often than not. Christensen has played very well this year and can be a good pass blocker going forward.
57. Baltimore Ravens – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
St. Brown is a separator and can be the chain mover the Ravens are missing.
You can read our scouting report on St. Brown here.
58. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
Chris Godwin and Shaquil Barrett are both free agents. The team will likely have to choose between them. The depth at wide receiver makes sense to go with Barrett as Godwin will cost a fortune. Toney is a raw technician, but has the athleticism and run after the catch ability.
You can read our scouting report on Toney here.
59. New York Jets (Via Pittsburgh Steelers) – Josh Myers, IOL/C, Ohio State
The Jets trade Sam Darnold to the Steelers for the 59th overall pick.
This is a win-win for both teams as the Steelers get to see if Darnold can be the future, while the Jets accumulate more picks.
While the Jets get Leatherwood at the beginning of the round, they could use a left guard. Myers is a well-rounded player and could be just what the Jets need to protect Fields.
60. Seattle Seahawks – Jay Tufele, IDL, Southern California
Tufele is a high energy player who would fit nicely in this defensive front.
61. New Orleans Saints – Dazz Newsome, WR, North Carolina
Newsome is a good route runner and can replace Emmanuel Sanders after the 2021 season.
62. Buffalo Bills – Derion Kendrick, CB, Clemson
Kendrick has shown high-level play but against lesser competition.
63. Green Bay Packers – Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson
Rodgers doesn’t get enough credit for his route running and separating ability. He’s crafty and is also dynamic after the catch.
64. Kansas City Chiefs – Tamorrion Terry, WR, Florida State
Terry’s draft stock will be determined by the combine, as he’s projected to run at the 4.3s, except he’s 6’4″ and 210 lbs.
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