Here we are, Wild Card weekend. While the regular season is over, there is still plenty of money to be made gambling on the spread, total, and prop bets. Much like the regular season, I will give my favorite prop bet from each game this weekend. With six Wild Card games this week, gamblers have plenty of opportunities to make some money.
To recap last week, I went 10-6 on my 16 prop bets. However, Calvin Ridley finished the game under 84.5 receiving yards, costing me the bonus point on the Lock of the Week prop. With the penalty, I finished last week 10-7 overall, bringing my record for the year to 109-113 (49.1 percent). Without further ado, let’s dive into the best prop bet from each Wild Card game.
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Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-137)
The Bills are hosting a playoff game for the first time since 1996, and a big reason is Allen’s play this season. He threw a career-high 37 touchdowns in 2020 to go along with eight rushing touchdowns. However, he faces a tough Colts defense today. The Colts held quarterbacks to only 1.5 passing touchdowns per game this season. Meanwhile, Allen threw for two or fewer touchdowns in 10 of 16 games this season. The Colts have one of the best defenses in the league so expect Allen to be held under three passing touchdowns for the 11th time this season.
Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks
D.K. Metcalf Under 60.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
As division rivals, these two teams have faced off twice this season, including two weeks ago in Seattle. The teams split their matchups, with the home team winning both times. The Seahawks won the division, in large part thanks to Metcalf. However, the one cornerback who has been able to shut him down is Jalen Ramsey. In the two matchups against the Rams this season, Metcalf recorded 59 receiving yards in Week 16 and only 23 in Week 7. Furthermore, Metcalf had seven games this season with 61 or fewer receiving yards, including each of the last four. Expect a big game from Tyler Lockett and a quiet one for Metcalf.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Football Team
Logan Thomas Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Washington squeezed their way into the playoffs after winning the NFC East division with a 7-9 record. While they are massive underdogs in this game, expect their defense to keep the game close. On offense, Washington lacks weapons in the passing game. However, Thomas has stepped up this season, averaging 41.9 receiving yards per game. More importantly, Thomas had 37 or more receiving yards in over half of his games this season. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have struggled to limit tight ends this season, giving up an average of 52 receiving yards per game to the position. Furthermore, tight ends record 40 or more receiving yards in 75 percent of their games against the Buccaneers. Thomas should hit the over on this prop bet before the start of the fourth quarter.
Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans
Marquise Brown to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+145)
In the Week 11 matchup against the Titans, Brown has zero receptions for the only time this season. However, in the six following games to wrap up the season, Brown scored in five of them, totaling six touchdowns. During that span, Brown scored 75 percent of his touchdowns this season. Meanwhile, the Titans had no idea how to keep wide receivers out of the end zone in 2020. They gave up at least one touchdown to wide receivers in 75 percent of their games this season, including 12 over their last six games. Brown has been Lamar Jackson‘s go-to guy lately, so don’t be surprised if he scores at least once, if not twice, tomorrow.
Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints
David Montgomery Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Montgomery closed out the 2020 season on fire. He scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six games, scoring two or more twice. Furthermore, Montgomery rushed for at least 69 yards in each of those six games. Meanwhile, the Saints struggled to slow down running backs over the last six games of the season, giving up an average of 94.7 rushing yards per game to the position, including 70 or more in five of them. Montgomery rushed for over 61 yards in 10 of 16 games this season, including 89 in the Week 8 matchup against the Saints. He is a focal point of the Bears’ offense and should hit the over on this prop bet early in the second half.
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers
🔒 Lock of the Week 🔒 Ben Roethlisberger Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-225)
While the payout isn’t ideal, it doesn’t matter if it’s a guarantee to hit. Big Ben threw two or more touchdowns in 12 of 15 games this season. Furthermore, Big Ben averaged 2.2 passing touchdowns per game, throwing three or more in a third of his games in 2020. Meanwhile, the Browns struggled to defend the pass this season, giving up 30 passing touchdowns. Last week, against Mason Rudolph in a meaningless game for the Steelers, the Browns allowed him to throw two touchdowns. While Big Ben only had one passing touchdown in his Week 6 matchup, he had a season-low 22 pass attempts in that game. Expect him to have at least two passing touchdowns this time around. This prop bet is my lock of the week.
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