Another week, another weekend of football, another chance to make some money. In addition to betting the spread, Moneyline, or the over/under total, you can also bet on what are called “props”. These are usually things like a certain player to throw for over/under a number of yards, or a certain player to score a touchdown. However, they aren’t limited to those two examples.
Each week, I will give my favorite prop bet from each game for the weekend. To have a little fun with it, I will be keeping track of how many prop bets I correctly predict. In addition, I will select one bet as my lock of the week. If it hits, I get a bonus point, but if I’m wrong, I lose two points. Last week I went 6-6, but Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills offense scored zero touchdowns, costing me the bonus point for my lock of the week. Losing the bonus point, I finished the week with a 6-7 record. Probably none of you care about this, so without further ado, I take my 44-44 record for the season and dive into the best prop bets for Week 8.
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Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow Over 289.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Burrow has been on fire lately, throwing for over 300 yards in five of his last six games. The only exception was Week 5 against the Baltimore Ravens. The good news is the Titans’ defense has given up plenty of yards to quarterbacks. They have given up over 300 passing yards in half of their games this season. The Titans will have no trouble scoring on the Bengals, meaning Burrow will have to throw to keep them in the game. Expect Burrow to have his second straight game with over 350 passing yards tomorrow.
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers
Dalvin Cook Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
After missing their Week 6 matchup against the Falcons, Cook should play tomorrow against the Packers. Before he got hurt in Week 5, Cook had 17 rushing attempts, marking the third straight game with 17 or more attempts. Furthermore, Cook is averaging 18.4 rushing attempts per game this season. Meanwhile, the Packers have one of the worst run defenses in the league this season, giving up 100 or more rushing yards in half of their games. The Vikings will try to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field, and the best way to do that is by running the ball. Expect a big game from Cook against an awful Packers run defense.
Los Angeles Rams vs Miami Dolphins
Jared Goff Under 254.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Over the last two weeks, Goff has struggled, throwing for an average of 209 yards per game. The Rams have had success running the ball, further limiting Goff’s need to throw. Furthermore, Goff has thrown for under 225 yards in three of his last four games. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have held quarterbacks under 190 passing yards in half of their games this season. With two weeks to prepare for this game, expect the Dolphins to limit Goff and the passing attack.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
Marquise Brown Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
After a great Week 1, Brown had a couple of down weeks but has bounced back over his last three games. During that span, Brown averaged 73.3 receiving yards per game, registering at least 57 in every contest. Furthermore, other than Mark Andrews, Brown is the focal point of the Ravens’ passing attack. Meanwhile, the Steelers have struggled to slow down wide receivers, giving up at last 205 receiving yards to wide receivers in four of their previous five games. All it takes is one big play from Brown, and he has his fourth straight game with 55 or more receiving yards.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-139)
Since Nick Chubb went down with a knee injury, Mayfield has stepped up his play. In the three games without Chubb, Baker had eight touchdown passes, including five last week against the Bengals. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ secondary is as bad as the Bengals’. The Raiders have given up eight passing touchdowns over their last three games, giving up at least two in every contest. Keep in mind, Mayfield threw for five touchdowns last week despite Odell Beckham Jr. playing two snaps and Austin Hooper missing the game. Even with both out this week, Baker should have no trouble hitting the over on this prop.
New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs
Le’Veon Bell Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-134)
Can you say revenge game? While Bell will split work with rookie star Clyde Edwards-Helaire, expect the Chiefs to give Bell plenty of run against his former team. In his Chiefs debut, Bell played on 33 percent of the snaps and had six carries for 39 yards. If he got 39 yards last week against the Broncos, it’s all but a guarantee that he rushed for 40 or more yards against the Jets. Not only are the Jets almost three-touchdown underdogs this week, but they’ve struggled to stop the run this season. They have allowed running backs to rush for 96 or more yards in five of their last six games. Expect Bell to have his revenge on the Jets.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
🔒 Lock of the Week 🔒 Cam Newton Under 189.5 Passing Yards (-124)
Reports are the Patriots will have a fire sale between now and Tuesday’s trade deadline; will Cam be part of that sale? Unlikely. Newton has struggled this season, throwing for under 165 yards in four of his five games. Furthermore, he was benched last week and admitted that if he didn’t play better, he wouldn’t be the starter for long. To make things worse for Cam, both Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry will miss tomorrow’s game, leaving Newton with limited options in the passing game. Newton is more likely to be benched tomorrow than throw for 190 passing yards. This prop is my lock of the week.
Indianapolis Colts vs Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+118)
Currently, the Lions are on a two-game winning streak and set with a 3-3 record. However, that is in large part thanks to the running game and not Stafford. Since their Week 5 bye, Stafford has thrown only two touchdowns in two games. In those two matchups, he faced the Jaguars and the Falcons, two of the worst passing defenses in the league. This week, Stafford faces the Colts, who have given up four passing touchdowns over their last five games. Tomorrow’s game should be low scoring, and Stafford will struggle to throw one touchdown, let alone two.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
Melvin Gordon Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
In another revenge game this weekend, Gordon faces off against the Chargers for the first time in his career. So far, Gordon’s first year in Denver has been successful, averaging 70 rushing yards per game. Furthermore, Gordon has rushed for 65 or more yards in four of five games this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers have given up at least 59 rushing yards in every game this season, giving up an average of 85.8 per game. Furthermore, Phillip Lindsay is dealing with a concussion and likely to miss this game, giving Gordon a featured role against his former team.
San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks
Jimmy Garoppolo Over 259.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Since returning from injury, Garoppolo has played very well for the 49ers. Over his last two games, he has thrown for at least 268 in each contest. Furthermore, Jimmy G has thrown for 259 or more yards in 60 percent of his games this season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the league at defending the pass. They have given up at least 249 passing yards in every game. However, they have given up 315 or more passing yards in five of six games this season. Expect a shootout with plenty of passing in this NFC West showdown.
New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears
Jimmy Graham to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+180)
While this isn’t the typical revenge game, Graham will be facing his former team tomorrow. Unfortunately for the Bears, Allen Robinson likely will miss the game with a concussion, opening up the door for more targets for Graham. In seven games this season, Graham has scored four touchdowns, including three that Nick Foles has played. Meanwhile, the Saints have had no answer for tight ends this season, giving up at least one touchdown to the position in five of six games. With Robinson out of the lineup, expect Foles to lean on Graham, especially in the red zone, even more.
Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles
Travis Fulgham Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Since Week 4, Fulgham has taken over as the Eagles’ top receiving option. He has at least 57 receiving yards in every game and is averaging 99 receiving yards per game over the last three contests. Furthermore, he has three straight games with double-digit targets. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ secondary can’t stop a nose bleed, let alone wide receivers. Despite playing some underwhelming wide receivers, the Cowboys are giving up an average of 171.4 yards per game to the position. Furthermore, they have given up at least 112 yards to wide receivers in every game this season. Look for Fulgham to have his fourth straight game with at least 70 yards before the start of the fourth quarter.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Giants
Scotty Miller Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Once again, the Buccaneers will be without Chris Godwin this week, forcing Miller to step up as the number two wide receiver in Tampa Bay. However, this number is too low. Miller has 73 or more receiving yards in more than half his games this season, averaging 52.1 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Giants have struggled to slow down wide receivers, giving up an average of 172.7 yards per game to the position. Furthermore, James Bradberry will spend a lot of the game covering Mike Evans, opening up even more targets to go Millers’ way on Monday night.
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